"The stock market overreact"
New black day in European markets on Thursday … After a positive start of the session, the Paris Bourse trend changed abruptly in mid-day, gradually widening its losses throughout the afternoon. At the opening of Wall Street, the Paris index widened its losses, before diving even more sharply after 16 hours: the long-awaited intervention of Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the Central Bank (ECB) has indeed failed to relieve the stock markets. Operators have even made a fright late in the session, while the stop trading market indices for nearly an hour has raised fears of a suspension of classes due to stock market panic … Set to 15 minutes of the fence, which was ultimately a technical problem resulted in a sharp fall in the CAC 40 (-3.90%) at 3320.35 points, its lowest level two years.And other European stock markets have experienced almost the same movement of panic.
The scenario of this Thursday confirms that seen in Paris last week, namely an acceleration of losses at the time of the opening of U.S. markets close in a pout down more than 2%. "This confirms that the United States still give the" the "squares global analysis at Montsegur Finance Chaulet François. We currently have a suréaction operators who rely on the assumption of a return of the U.S. economy into recession. " A favored hypothesis for two or three weeks with the publication of figures across the Atlantic macroeconomic advanced, contradicting the idea of catching up the economy in the United States, emerging from a recession that have to fall by 5% the GDP of the world's largest economy.
The technical rebound is expected
"The market has fallen into the hype on this subject and even capitulation, says François Chaulet. Added to this disproportionate sanctions on publications disappointing corporate earnings. And those who announce the results as expected are not rewarded fast cash now. They fall with the market, "For example, Veolia Environnement has seen its market capitalization divided by three since its profit warning on July 29.
The expected technical rebound this week after once in July already difficult, will not be today. "There was certainly a relief of the market for debt issues of U.S. and European full analyst.But beyond the announcement effect, investors are well aware that the solutions proposed (raising the ceiling of the debt in the U.S., and plan of aid to Greece ed) will not be so obvious that it set up. As long as there are political procrastination and that concrete measures are not implemented, the nervousness is expected to remain high, "adds he.
Opportunities to seize
Beyond this movement quite inexorable decline seen for ten days, the analyst points out, however, with a decline of 12% in five days, "we are still far from the levels of volatility in late 2008, where the movements daily up to 10%. In this context, there is no reason for the long-term investors do not come to the equity markets to take advantage of attractive valuations, "he says.A board to which some will probably oppose a speech often too optimistic on the part of financial analysts during a stock market panic.
Surrender is not waive
In terms of technique and market, capitulation means a massive sales of shares on stock markets, whatever the cost or risk of capital loss for the brokers. Often result in very large volumes of trade (4.8 billion euros at the end of Paris on Thursday) and a sharp drop in equity indices. Technically, however, this may be a sign of hope for the operators, the corresponding capitulation (in theory) to the lowest point of the market, the final step before the rebound. A theory that investors will surely be keen to see tomorrow ….