Paris is more committed to the survival of the euro as Berlin
Angela Merkel to hold the said it is preparing to receive the head of state in Europe who feel most attached to the euro. If it should remain a single country in the single currency – strange paradox – it would be France. While London bookmakers have stopped betting on an output of Greece, both in their likelihood seems strong (4 against 1), France is the country where the probability of abandonment of the single currency seems most low, with a score of 20 against 1. Our risk of secession is smaller than that of Germany (14/1) and a fortiori of Spain (12/1).
Without being scientific opinion of the bookmakers perfectly expresses the historical reality. It was François Mitterrand, who had pressured Kohl to waive its Deutsche Mark, symbol of German success, and not vice versa. And now the fear of Germany going it alone is not negligible.
The Judgment of Solomon
This is certainly not an asset but to enter a negotiation being as attached to the object of bargaining. In the judgment of Solomon, the true mother would rather give up her child rather than see it cut in half as we offered him. Lionel Jospin had experienced to his cost in June 1997, when he requested a trustee appoint a growth component in the Stability Pact. This was done in terms of the Treaty of Amsterdam – the city from the top – where you added "and growth", a mere rhetorical flourish. And a few months later, when a new record for employment in Luxembourg, the "socialist left" vain declare that "social Europe deserves a euro crisis," the threat was empty guaranteed cash advance.
This time the chances of reaching a "compromise" in the words of Pierre Moscovici, the campaign manager Francois Hollande, are much greater. Unlike the summer of 1997 where she had already begun a recovery, the European economy is in recession. Face a fundamental problem that it does not deny, Angela Merkel has also taken the lead. Of the six points it offers (see above) are the "projects bonds" financing investment projects. The kinship is more than semantics with the "Eurobonds", aimed at pooling, in part, public debts … and that excludes Berlin.
In the French camp, Michel Sapin, a bright future ministry, just recognized the dangers of renewed worsening deficits and debt. This concession to the Chancellor will she meet up at any price schedule of deficit reduction, or do we give to the freeze?
At stake is the reputation of a "Holland, Roosevelt again for Europe", the socialist economist Thomas Piketty, apostle of tax benefits, strives to accredit Urbi et Orbi. But do not forget that New Deal also includes structural reforms. This component is part of the negotiation that engages in Europe, as evidenced by the fact-finding mission that has just visited Brussels to Paris, as well as in eleven other European economies face obvious problems of competitiveness. Its findings will be formally presented on May 30
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