A cold shower! Well than expected by economists, the announcement of a French no growth in the second quarter 2011 is a very bad surprise. The surge of 0.9% of GDP in the first quarter is no longer a distant memory, the stagnation of activity between March and June changed all that in full preparation of the budget in 2012. Because the government now sees its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 seriously undermined.

The cold snap of the second quarter mainly due to a decline of 0.7% of household consumption. "This is the highest in fifteen years and the third largest drop in consumption in fifty years," notes Laurence Boone, chief economist for Europe Bofa Merrill Lynch. The end of the scrapping weighed heavily on automobile purchases.But the damage is deeper: "Households have reduced their spending in all positions in industrial goods," notes Catherine Stephan, at BNP Paribas.

Now, with an asset growth of 1.4% since early 2011, observers doubt the capacity of France to meet its objectives over the next two years. Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics, expects no more than 1.5% in 2011, far from the 2% of the government. BNP Paribas, it is hardly more optimistic, showing 1.7%. "To achieve a growth of 1.8% throughout the year, it takes a minium that GDP grew by 0.5% in the third and fourth quarters," said Philippe Waechter, Natixis AM. This is exactly what INSEE predicted in June, before the market crisis.But "given the surveys suggesting a slowdown in July, balances that are a priori not unique and shock the financial markets, an increase of 0.5% in the third quarter was the highest of the range, "he says.

Tax loopholes

Under these conditions, the forecast of 2.25% of GDP growth for 2012, on which the budget was to be built next year, is totally obsolete. "This year we will be online," however, assured Baroin RTL on Friday, saying that "this second quarter, disappointing that the first course, which was far ahead was anticipated."For the Minister of Economy, therefore, "it does not change the matrix on which we are working on the budget."

This position should change Aug. 24, at the meeting at the Elysee, presided over by Nicolas Sarkozy, to wedge the new budgetary decisions. At that time, many expect a downward revision of growth forecasts that will involve … an upward revision of cost savings! "We will no matter what the objective of reducing the public deficit to 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012 to reach the 3% in 2013," insists there be tireless in the entourage the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse. The equation is simple. "A lower growth of 0.25 points in 2011 will not prevent Bercy to meet its objectives for the year. However, at current rates, the deficit is moving more towards 4% of GDP in 2013, "calculates Laurence Boone."To return to the 3% target should be achieving 20 billion in additional savings over two years."

So far, the government planned to cut 3 billion in tax loopholes. He will have to change gear. Philippe Marini, rapporteur of the budget in the Senate, calls for 6 to 10 billion in additional savings. If the final figure is not stalled, the method is refined: there will be a general plane of the tax loopholes, coupled with the removal of some of them, for the sake of "tax justice" according to Bercy. Niches affecting corporate tax for large companies are in the sights and the tax on real estate gains could be reviewed upwards. No question, however, to one year of presidential, touching the 5.5% VAT in catering. A niche that cost 3 billion each year and the economic effects, however, uncertain.

After the storm that plunged all the stock markets yesterday, the markets should be less nervous on Thursday. The Asian markets have returned to the green or show moderate declines. European shares are expected to follow the same tendency to appeasement and are expected to open up. In Paris the CAC 40 is expected to gain 1.4% in early trade, the Dax in Frankfurt 1.6% and the FTSE 100 in London 1.3%.

Wednesday, the markets were shaken by rumors of a deterioration in the rating of France, immediately denied by the rating agencies and the French government, and concerns about the health of the bank Societe Generale. And the CAC 40 plunged 5.45%, narrowly escaping the psychological threshold of 3000 points to 3002.99 points. Other European markets have suffered the same drop Frankfurt dropped 5.13%, 3.05% London. Madrid and Milan 5.49% 6.65%.In New York, the Dow fell 4.62% and 4.09% for the Nasdaq.

Bank stocks follow

Gold continues, meanwhile, fly from record to record. The precious metal has crossed the threshold of 1800 dollars. It is this Thursday morning in 1790 dollars, after hitting a new record of 1815.50 dollars. However, oil resumed its decline in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

Among the values ​​to be followed, the bank that have been heavily tested yesterday.In particular Société Générale, after unscrewing of 14.74% on Wednesday asked the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) to investigate the origin of the rumors that have depressed its course. The CEO of the bank, Frédéric Oudéa, denounced, in an interview with Le Figaro, "the series of attacks" against the French banking sector "sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, it is taken at Societe Generale, "he lamented. "We have no fear on our lending: we achieved 93% of our long-term funding program year, he added.Short-term side, we have 105 billion euros of underlying assets with central banks and keep full access to the interbank market. "

BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole also fell Wednesday by 9.5% and 11.8%.

In addition, EADS, the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday it will not achieve its objectives in the United States in 2020 without new acquisitions.

Saint-Gobain has announced the acquisition of Solar Gard, a subsidiary of Belgian group dedicated to Bekaert Specialty Films, as part of its strategy to accelerate its growth through acquisitions.

The oil company Maurel & Prom has reported a surge of 123% of its revenue thanks to increased revenues in Gabon and Nigeria.

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While European stock markets, starting with Paris, still closed on Friday decreases, Baroin called to remain calm. The Minister of Economy, which had cut short his vacation to "take stock with his teams," according to the Elysée, stressed the need to "keep a cool head and not make a tracing paper of the excitement that can be observed on a given market. "

Invited to France Info, just after the close of the Paris Bourse, which for the first time ever signed a tenth meeting of consecutive decline, including the minister explained that "the questions posed from a double question mark: the character of the strong global economic growth and the important issue in Europe and worldwide of this problem of public debt. "

On this last point, Baroin said that "the determination of the 17 heads of state of the euro area should not doubt the investors." And remember, in reference to the plan of aid to Greece reached July 21, that "in Europe, there was an agreement by the Heads of State very important because it offered answers payday loans in one hour. These responses must be heard by the markets. "

Latency

The Minister of Economy, however, admitted that there was "a latency reduction" between the announcement of the plan, which is "a good plan," and its practical implementation. It must indeed be ratified by national parliaments. In this regard, Baroin was keen to dispel doubts about the possibility of rejection by the German parliamentarians. "The plan will be voted on July 21. There is no other way to protect our currency which is the common good of the countries in the region, "said he.But "time is not the Democratic one click of a market operator," he said.

In order to "restore investor confidence," Baroin also ensures that "we must strengthen the governance of the euro area to make it optimal."

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"SPECIAL – Europe, States facing bankruptcy

Find a solution to the debt crisis before the holidays. This is the roadmap of finance ministers of the euro zone next week. The European Council President, Herman van Rompuy, do not let them choose by calling Thursday for a summit. In the meantime, they must agree on the terms of a new plan of aid to Greece, the key to stability in the euro area.

"Our agenda will be the financial stability of the euro area as a whole and the future funding of the program (help) Greek," said Herman van Rompuy in a statement released Friday night. A summit should be held this week, but the disagreements were apparently still too large to meet the ministers of the euro area.

Friday, the German government still insisted on the need to reach a solution on this point before considering a meeting at the highest level."It's not a meeting in itself will help Greece, is a new program," said Berlin spokesman of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Steffen Seibert. A meeting will take place only if "it makes sense and is necessary," he added.

"Practicalities"

The fact that the president of the EU sets a date for the meeting means that the countries of the region are close to an agreement to overcome their differences on the plan must shelter Greece until 2014. The difficulties relate to the private sector. While States have agreed on this principle, "the element that continues to be discussed is the scope and practical arrangements," said the Belgian Minister of Finance Didier Reynders.

This question, seemingly technical, is the more political aspects Payday Loan for Bad Credit.Specifically, Germany would like the creditor banks of Greece their hands to the portfolio. German Chancellor Angela Merkel does not want to antagonize the public, tired of paying for its European neighbors. The German solution has the potential to place Athens in de facto default. An option rejected by the European Central Bank (ECB), France and Madrid. "We made good progress" in discussions of the issues that upset "but there is still work to do," said a source close to the talks.

"Treat the Greek problem '

These dissensions troubled financial markets in the euro area. The crisis reached a new level this week, the contagion affecting Italy's third largest economy in the euro area. Rome, however, managed to extinguish the fire in the markets by adopting an emergency in the austerity plan of 48 billion euros.Publication of the results of stress tests of European banks on Friday could also help calm the fears of investors.

If the finance ministers do not want to disturb the relative calm, they will present next Thursday, practical solutions. "It should address the problem of Greece, as a starting point of an overall therapy," say economists at Credit Agricole. The recipe that will be applied to Greece as an example. "

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The difference is certainly on the thickness of the line but it still twists his neck to popular belief. An evaluation of the Ministry of Labour with the redeployment of unemployed Le Figaro has obtained, employment center gets better results that private placement (OPP) to which the accompaniment of hundreds of thousands of job seekers job was outsourced. In other words, the public would be more effective than the private sector to find new jobs for the unemployed.

This assessment focuses on two categories of job seekers who have benefited, in November 2009 and March 2010, a reinforced support: the unemployed far removed from the market (long-term, seniors …) and CTP-fired economic CRP (devices for one year guaranteeing a subsidy equivalent to 80% of the last gross wage). Just under 5000 people were interviewed.In both cases, the rate of return to work thirteen months after the start of the support is higher for employment center.

47% of retrenched in CTP-CRP followed by public service employment benefit and employment (employed or not), against 43% for those followed by a private placement (employment agency, company … reclassification). Less than one in three point still unemployed after thirteen months, against 38% for a PPO. The private sector, which offers support more regular and reinforced, in the end proves better than the public service on one point: the rate of CDI won, higher than 5 points to the result displayed by employment center.

More CDI

The difference is greater for the second cohort of unemployed: the unemployed far removed from the labor market.49% are employed and thirteen months after the start of their employment center for support, against 43% for those followed by a PPO. Unlike the retrenched, the CDI rate is even higher in the public service (44% against 39%). Worse, the number of unemployed, thirteen months after the start of the accompaniment, are higher in PPOs (45% against 41%).

These results revive the controversy over the use of OPP – the cost of an unemployed investment returns twice as expensive (2200 euros on average per year, against 1100 at employment center) – to relieve the crews of the public service of employment in case of downturn. The popular option is to use only an "outsourcing of specialty", on a more targeted, less numerous and where the added value of OPP is proven. Should, in this case, review their terms of payment by paying more in income.PPOs now affecting half of their performance in support of an unemployed, 25% when in use and 25% if there is still six months later. The idea is often put forward to move to a 35% share in the care and placement for 65% effective (against today 50/50). A useful discussion since the OPP always accompany nearly 150,000 job seekers.

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The benchmark rents (IRL) confirmed its recovery according to statistics released Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE). After an increase of 1.60% in the first quarter of 2011 – compared to the same period in 2010 – it rose again, to 1.73% on a year in the second quarter. So this is a new record pace since the first quarter of 2009. The index then rose from 2.24% before declining for several quarters. In late 2009, he even fell 0.06%. He now records his sixth consecutive quarter of growth.

This index is used in France as a reference for the annual review of residential rents when the lease provides. Authorizes up the new owners to raise rents of 1 faxless payday advance.73% maximum.The increase applies to leases made after that date, as well as current leases if the lease specifies that the IRL for the third quarter is the basis for the review.

The benchmark rents are calculated on the basis of the index of consumer prices excluding tobacco and rents. This new increase is logical given the slight upturn in inflation recorded in France. The latter, according to figures from INSEE, rose 2.1% year on year in June.

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Philip Carli, who arrived in October 2010 within the Amaury group, wants to make Paris Aujourd'hui en France "a reference to the national daily press and local cross-media in France."

LE FIGARO. – What is the content of the proposed stimulus package you presented yesterday to the employees of "Parisien in France today?"

Philippe CARLI. – We have decided to invest 30 million euros to develop and diversify our offer. This choice results from the observation that 80% of our revenues come from sales to the number. We must therefore meet the expectations of our readers. The objective is to increase our revenues of 100 million euros on the brand Le Parisien in France today. To retain and expand our audience, we plan to invest ten million euros, with, among others, the creation of a weekly magazine offers.Coupled with the daily on weekends, it will include in the second half of 2012, a news and lifestyle magazine picture of a hundred pages. In a second step could be added a weekly edition of our monthly enriched La Parisienne.

And for everyday?

Besides the fact that the model will be upgraded with a passage of 64 full color pages, we wish to reaffirm our commitment to strengthening our close nine departmental editions (eight departments of the Ile-de-France and the Oise), representing 49% of our sales. We plan to increase their editorial pagination of 50% and increase local resources, including rich media. Finally, to be closer to the cities and communities, we want to enter into agreements with associations, clubs and municipalities.A manager of the communities would be created for each edition.

You also mentioned before the diversification of employees …

Indeed we expect to invest 20 million euros in acquisitions of companies specializing in electronic transactions, including trade between individuals, group purchasing, or even the classifieds. We are also interested in human services.

The envelope of 30 million euros, also includes capital expenditure?

The journal's editorial changes will be accompanied by a modernization of two of our printing presses Saint-Ouen, where we have modernized our mailroom at a cost of 3 million euros. In addition, we invest in our management tools related to our subscribers, our readers and clients.30 to 35 million French people each month are in contact with one of the hallmarks of our group (Le Parisien in France today, the team, Amaury Sport Organisation). It's time to capitalize on these contacts by imagining new offers for our subscribers. I am convinced that this is a very strong leverage income.

Where are you in the digital convergence of your editors?

If there is one place where it is well advanced, it is in our county editions, where journalists play the game But there is still room for improvement, including better integration of information flow and anticipate events . In terms of organization of the group Le Parisien, five major areas should be established, bringing together existing services around cross-cutting issues – news, entertainment and sports – and two that would be created – investigation and image.The realization of any newspaper should be linked to art direction and a cross-media desk would also be created to handle all information and redirect them to different media.

This major reorganization will she downsizing?

It should actually result in the removal of items from 40 to 50 of the 600 employees that has Le Parisien. But I said that my desire is to avoid forced departures. We want to set up a voluntary redundancy plan the details of which will be discussed with the social partners in September.

What functions are involved?

Mainly managerial functions, simplifying the hierarchical organization, and positions related to the achievement of the newspaper.The creation of new centers, in particular survey and image, is expected to provide opportunities in writing to some of those involved. Scribblers writing should not, however, be affected.

On the branch Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO), what are your plans?

We will continue its internationalization. Several opportunities are being explored. We will support the development of ASO in South America, including Brazil, where we opened a subsidiary in late 2010. But also in Spain, where we took a significant stake in the Vuelta, the Tour of Spain. We also plan to organize events around the bike in Qatar and Oman. Discussions are also underway for events in China.

Little relief on the side of Greece in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the Greek Parliament gave its confidence in the socialist government revised last week – 155 votes for and 143 against (or all members present of the Opposition). Prime Minister George Papandreou will be able to set up a new austerity plan, prerequisite to release a new loan tranche of 12 billion euros, which is vital for the country.

The Prime Minister asked the members' confidence to continue to deal with the crisis and the deficit, avoid bankruptcy and ensure the maintenance of Greece in the core of the euro "was heard.The statesman had also explained that the government is committed to "putting all his strength to overcome the crisis (…) there is a perspective, a path set, we have the support and assistance of the international community and the European Union with a loan mammoth. "

This vote was also welcomed by the President of the European Commission. José Manuel Barroso said that "the vote tonight in the Greek Parliament removes an element of uncertainty into an already very difficult. This is good news for Greece and the European Union as a whole. "

For its part, the new finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, has committed to go beyond the requirements of the European Union and International Monetary Fund, to address his country.He said Athens' needs a parallel restructuring plan "that is consistent with the objectives set by the troika, but also to enable" better on the budget, growth and social justice. "

But before that Greece must vote before June 30, the austerity plan that provides savings of 28.4 billion and 50 billion privatization until 2015. Has yet to convince the public. In fact, the call of "outraged" Greek camp to parliament, several thousand protesters gathered outside Parliament to protest against the policies of austerity and privatization of government booed the vote of confidence from Parliament.

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The U.S. textile specialist VF Corporation will put her hand on her compatriot Timberland. That's what we announced on Monday the two groups in a communiqué.VF Corp., which owns brands such as backpacks by The North Face and Eastpak, those pants Wrangler and Lee, or that of Vans shoes, putting on the table $ 43 in cash per share Timberland, a premium of 43.4% from $ 29.99 registered at the close of Friday night. In total, the offer values ​​Timberland approximately $ 2 billion. The operation, which has already been approved by both boards, is expected to close during the third quarter, according to the objectives of VF Corporation.

Timberland, which carries 50% of its international business, this year should reach $ 1.6 billion in sales.Moreover, the management of VF Corporation aims for his target annual sales growth of 10%, and believes that the transaction will be highly beneficial in its own earnings per share in 2011, but also in 2012.

An operation "transforming"

In total, the new entity is expected to exceed $ 10 billion in annual sales. On the one hand, VF account of course benefit from the presence of its target international markets, including Japan, but mainly to diversify its brand portfolio, while bringing to 50% share of its turnover in the outdoor business

At a time when competition in the market for online savings, Cortal Consors wants to restore the voice. The BNP Paribas subsidiary specialized in savings and online brokerage has launched an image campaign, which aims to strengthen its reputation. She recalls in particular that it was behind several innovations on the savings market, including the marketing of all mutual funds. The property line puts the means of communication with a budget increase of 30%. "In recent years we have invested less than our competitors," admits Gommard Benedict, CEO of the brand which claims 530,000 customers and hopes to reach 25,000 to 40,000 per year.

Through this campaign, Cortal Consors stands out from most of its direct competitors (BforBank, ING Direct, Fortuneo …) focusing on the custom board heritage.And by offering a savings account paying 3.25% for one year (2.23% net), while the majority of promotions for new customers rising to 4% or 6% gross for three months. The online bank hopes in this way retain investors increasingly fickle, quick to hunt for bargains.

Customers rather rich

Especially since the savings market is fought. Online banks, which have made their product booklets of conquest (according to a survey Credoc Monabanq, 56% of their clients have at least one) must now cope with the onslaught of traditional banks. "We have more difficulty in asserting our difference," says Andre Coisne, CEO BforBank, a subsidiary of Credit Agricole.

Involved? The new prudential rules (known as Basel 3) requiring that in future banks have more capital and assets easily accessible, thus more "liquid". Result, they direct more savings to their customers bank books and other deposit account. During the first 4 months of the year, the booklets were not controlled and drained about 10 billion euros in savings.

To remain competitive, banks multiply the distance marketing innovations (promotional rates reserved for first customers …). They want so optimistic. Especially since, according to the study of Credoc, "nearly 31% of customers would consider it as their main bank." Customers even more interesting because they are financially above the average rather rich, young, Parisian and graduates.They also hold more financial products than the average …

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