After the events of spring Arab countries that have stirred strong tourism such as Tunisia and Egypt, it is time to first results. As part of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Mediterranean world (IPEMED) led by Jean-Louis Guigou, the Mediterranean Travel Association (Meta) published assessments that it may take a little balm to the heart of tourism professionals present in this region.

"The attendance figures, down in the first eight months of from 40 to 50% from a year 2010 already bad, should be better in the second half of the year," said Stephen Pauchant, president of the Meta. According to his calculations, the outlook for 2011 should reflect a fall of 15% of international tourist arrivals (27.3 million) in the area between Morocco and Egypt.However, for the entire perimeter of the Mediterranean, Stephen Pauchant expects an increase of about 2.17%.

The sense of security is "acceptable"

The price reductions, promotional campaigns, the arrival of new customers came from Eastern Europe and Asia do not explain everything: the sense of security has improved in these countries bad credit payday advance. Probing of tourists, the institute noted that TravelSat indices had improved. "Now the feeling of security is considered" acceptable "," said Olivier Henry-Biabaud, president of TravelSat, the index is comparable to some European capitals during a short stay because the stress of city life can be important ".

The fact that in Tunisia, during the Arab spring, no hotels have been attacked, no tourist was concerned, adds to the perception of safety.Important source of foreign exchange, tourism is expected to return in the long term growth. "The tragedies of past attacks demonstrate that the concept of resilience is strongly rooted in these countries, says Maxime Weigert, expert on tourism in IPEMED. Not only tourists return after tragedies such as that of Luxor in 1997 (58 tourists killed), but the learning curve reaches the same level as if nothing had happened. "

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The government, which this Tuesday the draft budget law for 2012, based his entire equation on a growth forecast of 1.75% for next year-until last August, he hoped it would reach 2.25 %. Despite the turbulence of increasingly stringent in Europe, Bercy firmly believes this new hypothesis.

Recently the Minister of Economy Baroin claimed to have "serious reasons to consider it achievable," while his colleague Valerie Pécresse Budget also reaffirmed Sunday that the government's projections were "conservative and realistic."

Yet, scenarios and expert succession, one after the other, come to doubt the probability of the hypothesis-government.Monday is the Institute of COE-Rexecode conditions that drive the point home: it provides a GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012-exactly the consensus of economists. Or acceleration or slowdown: after the air hole last spring, COE-Rexecode see activity continue on a pace soft below the trend between 2001 and 2007.

Monitor the distribution of credit

"We do not retain perspective as the most likely scenario that the recessive stock markets seem to play for Europe," says Institute (close to employers), chaired by Michel Didier.But further, he warns, watch in the coming months "the impact on the lending of a possible increase in the cost of bank refinancing and even more difficult access to liquidity," and that "the downward revision of investment programs that entrepreneurs may have to perform under extra care" against the current deterioration of the environment.

COE-Rexecode also cautions that its expectations are based on "the assumption that the interventions of the ECB and the introduction of means of the European Financial Stability manage to break the downward spiral of financial markets and to avoid the contagion of Other States in the euro area and the banking system. "

In this context, reduction of public deficits "is a priority," but "to limit the short-term impact on growth and raise potential growth, cost savings are preferable to increase the tax burden," insists the Institute. Issue of competitiveness.

It's already Christmas in the "civet"! The government has made on Friday, a nice gift for tobacconists. Their pay on each pack of cigarettes will increase from 6.5% to 6.9% of the selling price. This increase will begin in January 2012 and will be spread over five years, the duration of the new "future contract" signed between Valérie Pécresse, Minister of Budget and Pascal Montredon, president of the Confederation of tobacconists. This is in addition to various support measures for tobacco shops located near the border and in rural areas, estimated at 320 million euros.

The increase in compensation benefits, it at all tobacco shops alike. Paradoxical, because "the sale of tobacco as aids have allowed your average income increase by 57% between 2002 and 2010," as recalled by Valerie Pécresse to tobacconists, who held their annual conference in Paris Friday."In total, more than 1 billion euros that came with your support and profession, which has also benefited, for many of you, the effects of the reduction in VAT in catering."

"At least 10 cents more per pack"

In early 2003, a sharp rise in prices had collapsed sales and forced the closure of nearly 5,000 retailers. There remains 28,000. But since 2004, the price increase regular, moderate (6% per year since 2009) did not in fact impact on the number of cigarettes sold in tobacconists, to the dismay of supporters of tobacco control and Department of Health. As a result, sales of tobacco outlets rose year after year at the rate of inflation of cigarettes for their benefit as for that of tobacco, and especially of the state, who pocketed 80% of price of a pack, which brings in each year over 10 billion euros credit score.

While the additional gift to tobacconists would have no direct impact on government accounts. In all likelihood, the increase will be offset in compensation not to lower fees charged by Bercy, which closely monitors its accounts, but rather by a decrease in compensation of the tobacco industry, as was the case in the previous contract for the future.

To the extent that tobacco companies have no intention of making less money, they will offset the decline in their pay on each packet by an increase in their prices. "To erase an annual decline of 0.1% of our earnings should be increased by at least 10 cents the price of a package," says one manufacturer. "It's a vicious cycle that will strengthen the cause of the difficulties of cross-border tobacco shops," adds another.

Tobacco companies can increase their prices at the beginning of each quarter.Their next rate adjustment will occur not necessarily next January, to the extent that prices will rise by 6% already on Monday, October 17 or 10, as decided by the government. The pack of Marlboro will then 5.90 to 6.20 euros.

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After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.

But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.

"Target needed '

Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years cheap business cards…

In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.

These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.

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Reduce the "gap" of 95.7 billion euros of state will take time. Further action on pensions would give the impression that the reform of 2010 was insufficient. And the government did not hand over the finances of local governments. To give a visible signal of declining deficits before the presidential election, the government has a priority: Medicare. The hole is "halved between 2010 and 2012," has already promised the Minister of Budget and Public Accounts, Valérie Pécresse. This should reduce it to less than 6 billion euros.

To do so, Medicare will benefit from additional revenue: it will recover much of the 10 billion of additional levies announced in late August, by François Fillon. But it will also make an effort on his expenses.The aim will be to contain their rising to 2.8% (against 2.9% this year), which means 2.2 billion savings from the spontaneous progression.

The distribution of these savings will be presented Thursday by the government, which unveiled the outline of the proposed 2012 budget of Social Security, along with the latest forecasts of deficit, which is less than 18 billion euros for 2011. It's the drug industry that should be first put to use.

Price reductions, which in recent years revolved around 500 million euros a year, this year will be closer to 650-700 million, according to notifications sent to laboratories already. The delisting will be added.

Whereas in the past it was often compromised, including inventing a "orange sticker" reimbursed by the social security 15%, the government should not hesitate this time to completely delisted drugs ineffective quick guaranteed personal loans.

The warning laboratories

Mediator since the affair, the French no longer have absolute faith in drugs, which should make it less difficult such a measure. Benefit Schedule: as price reductions, the exclusions from reimbursement are also savings in complementary, as they also leave the drugs in question from the list of products they support.Now the government wants reconciliation with the complementary, after having inflicted one billion euros in additional tax.

Leem, the association of laboratories and underlines that these measures in 2012 will coincide with the expiration of many patents, according to his representative estimates 1.2 billion in sales, against an average of 700 to 800 million the previous year.Add to this bill on the drug prepared by the Minister Xavier Bertrand after the scandal of the Mediator, Leem fear next year an unprecedented decline-of-sales of the pharmaceutical industry, which could reach a % or 2%.

In addition, samples should increase: for, an increase in the special tax on the turnover of laboratories (currently set at 1%, it could return to its former level, or 1.7%) and contribute indirectly to fund new training for doctors, via the state.

Leem warned against further reductions, particularly among sales representatives, and against a "climate of distrust" that would push the major international laboratories to prefer other countries to invest in research or production.

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The stock market bounce this week has been facilitated by the concerted action of major central banks. The markets now await a response to the crisis of the euro and they still fear a return to recession is not yet integrated into the course.

• Central banks have put out the fire. Policy is to act.

To rebound, stock markets were expecting a strong gesture. A kind of kick in the bottom of the pool after the distressing spectacle of the leaders of member countries of the euro unable to agree on rescue Greece. The first impetus was given by central banks that have decided to tackle the funding problems of European banks. By providing all the liquidity they need dollars, they have the most urgent and avoided a new banking crisis. But the most difficult tasks lie ahead.For central banks are independent organizations, they therefore have the flexibility of movement that do not have the seventeen Member States of the euro. Now it is in the field of European governance, the ability of states to reduce their debt and the solidity of the European financial stability that is expected the euro area. Subjects whose implementation is far from certain and have not finished putting markets under pressure.

• Focus on growth, defensive stocks do not pay more.

The crash of August brought down one of the last great stock market myth: the resilience of defensive stocks in times of crisis. The numbers speak for themselves: Veolia Environnement and Suez, specializing in utilities, a sector traditionally very defensive, yielded 42 and 20% over the last three months.EDF and GDF Suez lost their next 18 and 12%. France Telecom, Vivendi and Vinci also fell sharply. During the summer, these values ​​have not only shown no ability to resist, but they often fell as much as "cyclical" as Lafarge, ArcelorMittal, Saint-Gobain or Peugeot. The only values ​​that really are resilient growth companies in these emerging countries have low debt and strong brands. LVMH is the case, Essilor International, SEB, Air Liquide, Bic or Hermes International. The clear market preference for growth stocks at the expense of defense is not surprising in times of crisis. It is precisely because investors fear a slowdown in the richer countries, that growth is so sought after by scholars.The famous guru of Wall Street, the American Peter Lynch, who long prospered the famous Magellan fund, has shown: in the long run, only the values ​​of growth are able to enrich shareholders. His motto: there is no fortune by multiplying the stock market moves, but the success by joining the best companies at the time.

• Economists fear a growing recession in the United States.

The euro crisis is not the only concern of the operators. According to a survey by the Wall Street Journal on a panel of 53 economists, they believe that there is one chance in three that the United States fell into recession in the next twelve months. This sharp deterioration in business expectations is a bad omen.American economists believe the Fed will be reactive at its meeting on 20 September, but they doubt the effectiveness of measures taken to revive the business. The survey, closely watched by traders on Wall Street, the trend weakens. Especially when we know that this feeling is shared by consumers, which contributes 70% to U.S. GDP.

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Despite the decree issued this summer, which gives greater freedom to set rates to SNCF to fix its price list, the maximum rate "will always be capped." Asked in the daily Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet wants to be reassuring and reaffirming that "the objective of the decree is to give more flexibility to the operator so that better meet its trains by increasing the discounted prices "with attractive offers last minute, she says. Minister refutes the idea of ​​a systematic increase in ticket prices during peak hours "if the trains would empty," she says.

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet now provides 80% of travelers already enjoy discounted tickets and the "cheap tickets Prem's up more than a TGV ticket sold in ten."In response to the survey of consumer association CLCV which revealed that 87% of the French TGV are too expensive, the minister said that "high speed train in France is 10% cheaper than in Spain and 33% cheaper than in Germany business cards. " It recognizes that there is still room for improvement particularly on the transparency of the fee schedule. To remedy this, she wants to hold in 2012 the operator to display on its website, and for each link, the price the cheapest and most expensive, excluding promotions. The station will also pledge that half of the passengers pay a price at or below the reference price set by the state traditionally. "This will be controlled with Thierry Mariani, the Minister for Transport.We will monitor closely "assures Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet.

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The main emerging countries could come to the bedside of the euro area. So says a source on Tuesday the Brazilian government, according to the Brics acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – could increase their holdings of bonds denominated in euros.

These discussions are not yet at a "preliminary stage", says this source, who adds that this approach would not involve "the majority" of the reserves of these countries. The Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico understands that these purchases could be limited to the debt of Europe's most solid.

"To help the EU out of this situation"

A final decision could be taken at the meeting on September 22 finance ministers and central bankers of Brics in Washington bad credit unsecured personal loans.The Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega, has already confirmed that the Brics discuss the debt crisis in the euro area, without giving details. "We will talk about what it takes to help the EU out of this situation," he said simply.

Meanwhile, Italy, whose rates have soared during bond, has denied media reports that she would have asked China to invest in debt. But markets want to believe this solution. THE EUROPEAN stock markets have closed well over sharp increases. And Wall Street is also displayed in the green end of the session.

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The Paris Bourse on Wednesday will try to stop his downward series. The CAC 40 is at least on track to: the opening, it increases from 2.45% to 3038.57 points. Same movement in Frankfurt the Dax gained 2.74% and in London the FTSE-100 was up 2.20%.

The Paris markets were closed yesterday on a third round of consecutive decline, to the lowest of the year and still under 3000 points. This time, operators mimic their movement on the Asian markets who have chosen to embark on a bargain hunting.

Closing slightly lower on Wall Street also reassures the markets. The New York Stock Exchange, which remained very cautious, however, has not panicked by the announcement of a good non-manufacturing ISM index.All good news about the health of the U.S. economy are highly valued in a context of fear of a recession in America. As such, investors are waiting to know the details of the Fed's Beige Book, which will be announced tonight. Tomorrow, Thursday, will also be a crucial day in Congress with the speech of President Barack Obama on employment. The CNN already believes that it will propose to spend $ 300 billion to new posts. These new expenditures should be fully offset by budget cuts.

Germany at the center of attention

Side the euro area, all eyes turned to the German Constitutional Court which shall decide on Wednesday on the legality of the financial contribution of Berlin plans to help Europe.The observers could never imagine, however, that the Court considers illegal contributions already provided by Berlin, which would cause a cataclysm in the euro area. Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to comment on the decision of the Court in a speech to the Bundestag in the morning.

The European Commission has also expressed his relief after Tuesday night's decision by the Italian Government's plan to strengthen budgetary discipline, while financial markets doubted the real will of Rome to reduce its deficit. For its part, the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, acknowledged Tuesday the difficult economic situation, highlighting the problem of Greece, and "tensions" in the markets, but said that Spain 's will not need help.

The single currency was this morning up 0.34% to 1.4055 dollar.It is particularly supported by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to set a floor price of 1.20 francs per euro. Oil side, in the early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 51 cents to 86.53 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 39 cents to 113.28 dollars .

Values ​​to follow on Wednesday

• Banking

Countries in the euro area have no plans for financial support to banks beyond and above what was planned for the financial sector rescue packages in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, have sources said Tuesday the euro area. For its part, Greece wants to extend the powers of its central bank to strengthen bank supervision, hoping to put the sector in the shelter of a worsening debt crisis, according to a bill presented Tuesday.

• Air France-KLM

The company reported passenger traffic up 7.6% in August, a load factor of 85.7% on the month and stability of cargo traffic (-0.2%) with capacity up 2.8%.

• Pernod Ricard

The group said they did not consider major strategic acquisitions before next summer at least.

• Scor

The reinsurer expects to achieve a volume of gross written premiums, equivalent to sales of 10 billion euros in 2013, against 6.7 billion in 2010, according to a statement posted Wednesday on the occasion of a day devoted investors.

• Sodexo

The group, a global leader in catering, has announced the acquisition of Puras do Brasil, Brazil's number two industry, in a statement.With this self-financed operation, Sodexo will become number one in Brazil, a rapidly growing market where Puras do Brasil realizes a turnover of half a billion euros.

• Valeo

The group announced its intention to repurchase up to 670,000 of its shares to a maximum of 22.5 million euros in connection with operations authorized by the General Assembly in June These shares will be allocated for the implementation of any plan of options to purchase shares in the allocation of shares in respect of participation or implementation of any company savings plan.

• Biomérieux

The group released a consolidated net profit up 3.7% to 75 million euros in the first half and said forecast for 2011 organic growth in sales of around 5%, against a previous target of +5% or + 6%, in a context of weak European economy and the U.S..

• Boiron

The specialist in homeopathy said the uncertainties in the economic environment for caution in its annual outlook after a deuixème trimesre marked by a 3.3% decline in sales. This decline in activity, combined with an increase in personnel costs and a continued investment in advertising, led to a fall of 92.5% of operating profit in the first half of the year.

• Transgene

The specialist therapeutic vaccines has announced a net loss dug to 17.7 million in the first half, against -14.5 million a year earlier, but said he expected a second part of a year rich in results and starting clinical trials.

As for recommendations:

The UBS analysts raised their recommendation on the title Accor to "neutral" against the "sell" previously.Analysts at Morgan Stanley in turn have lowered their recommendation on the title PPR to "neutral weight" against "overweight" previously, said market sources Wednesday.

LE FIGARO. – Are you satisfied with the performance of Pernod-Ricard during the exercise?

Pierre PRINGUET. – Congratulations to the teams of Pernod Ricard. The group has an excellent performance, with both a strong acceleration of growth of our business and our operating profits. For the first time ever, our net income exceeds one billion euros. These figures show the relevance of our premiumisation strategy and innovation. Our high-end bottles account for 71% of our sales, against 69% last year. Our new products (Wild Tea Absolut, Malibu cocktails …) our limited series and our innovations in advertising and packaging met with success.With a new bottle of Ricard sales increased 5% in France, a market of aniseed stable.

You get ready for a worsening economic environment?

No, I fear neither slowing growth in emerging countries or return to recession in mature markets. The world faces a problem of public debt, with a unique in Greece, the country most fragile. But the political dimension is at least as important as the economic dimension. Everyone was betting on an acceleration of growth in mature markets: the targets are scaled down, but countries will experience low growth in 2011 (1.5 to 2%). And there is no reason for the dynamic growth of emerging countries is slowing. For 2012, the objectives are still serene. IMF sees faster U.S. next year. You can always play to be afraid.But the psychodrama of the summer on the state of the banking system has nothing to do with the situation of 2008 and the general crisis of debt at the time. It is a political problem, but not macro-financial.

There will be no effect on the growth of your business during the current year?

We expect continued moderate growth in mature markets for the fiscal year beginning in July (1.5% last year) and continued strong growth in emerging countries (17% last year) . These will drive our growth: built on solid economic fundamentals, these markets are naturally attracted to our premium brands.

The tension in the markets makes it more difficult to manage your debt?

For our bank debt, we have no due before July 2013.We have an active management of our debt, with two bond issues last year to EUR 1 billion and $ 1 billion respectively. Interest rates remain particularly low, we will seize every opportunity to issue bonds. We will continue our debt reduction, with the aim of achieving 30 June in a net debt / EBITDA of close to 4.

You will be able to resume your acquisition policy …

Does not expect to purchase several billion on 1 July. In the meantime, we will conduct no strategic acquisitions. However, we can make tactical acquisitions, such as tequila Avion in July. It is both a start-up and a brand ultrapremium, sold between 40 and 60 euros a bottle, which allows us to expand our portfolio in the United States.This is the type of operation we will focus in the immediate future. Acquisitions of Brazilian cachaça or baijiu Chinese are possible options. In our business, this is not the type of product that counts, but the brand. Pernod Ricard could also create one from scratch. This is one of the objectives of our internal team called BIG (Breakthrough Innovation Group), whose current head of our German subsidiary, Alain Dufossé, just take the lead.

This summer, Patrick Ricard, non-executive chairman of Pernod Ricard, said at that point the group should aim for first place in the spirits market. What is your strategy to achieve this?

This is the purpose of our project Agility. The goal is not size for size, but the growth momentum. Our sales have grown faster than our competitor's last year. We must repeat that performance this year.We take the market, we are the most innovative, we are well placed to achieve this.

Alexandre Ricard was promoted a few weeks ago. It is well positioned to succeed you …

Two things are certain. One is Alexandre Ricard has an excellent track. That's why I named Executive Vice President in charge of distribution networks. The second is that I leave my post January 31, 2015, when I turn 65, according to the statutes of Pernod Ricard.