A cold shower. Francois Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault, the new duo at the head of the executive, could not begin their terms with worse prospects on the employment front. According to the Bureau of Unedic, the unemployment insurance system – that can not be accused of anti-hollandisme since it is composed, for half, representatives of trade unions – the number of registered unemployed in Class A (no activity) should swell to 178,500 in 2012 and then to 128,300 next year. A total of 306,800 additional people in two years, an increase of 10.6% over current levels.

This would be a disaster for the head of state who is committed during the campaign to reverse the unemployment curve, within one year after his election. To revise its forecast of 2012 and first establish financial and employment projections for 2013, services Unedic have incorporated into their models – reliable, in general – the new growth assumptions adopted by the consensus of economists (+ 0 , 3% and +1% of GDP for the current year and the next).

Scenario B more positive

If you look at job seekers who exercised reduced activity (categories B and C), increasing the total number of unemployed in the Hexagon will be even higher than 110,200, representing an increase of 9.7% in two years. Main explanation: the employment should fall further to 91,300 units in two years, bringing to nearly 300,000 the number of jobs destroyed in the Hexagon on the equivalent of a seven-year term. These poor forecasts, if realized, would further aggravate a little hole Unedic whose accumulated deficit frôlerait 18.2 billion euros end 2013. A record.

The new president and his prime minister, however, will find two tiny glimmers of hope in the fifteen pages of notes prediction Unedic. First, the deficit expected in late 2012 was revised downwards (from 1.3 billion euros) compared to recent estimates, established mid-January because of poor advance of revenues and expenditures. Second, the unemployment insurance system has also established a scenario B if growth would be higher in 2012 and 2013 – the bet made by Francois Hollande with the policies he wants to implement.  

If the GDP grew by 0.7% this year and 1.4% in 2013, the rising number of unemployed in Class A would be reduced to 169,200 over two years (half that in the central hypothesis) and the economy would begin to create jobs in 2013, with a positive balance of about 53,300 jobs by the end of next year.

The impact on the finances of Unedic would be immediate: the debt would be reduced to 17.2 billion at end 2013, one billion less than the central scenario. A completely different horizon.

ALSO READ:

"No, the balance of job Sarkozy is not zero

"Difficult match offers and applications for employment

"The outlook troubling labor market

"Strong degradation of unemployment in March

The tone has hardened in the conflict between marine companies between Corsica and the mainland. The strike called by the CGT Wednesday to demand the application of the same social laws to all shipping companies, including foreign competition, making these runs was repeated on Sunday. This movement was caused Saturday "anger" of the direction of SNCM (Société Nationale Corse Méditerranée), 66% subsidiary of Veolia Transdev. The South (ex-CMN) is also affected by the strike. The movement "is followed at 28% to SNCM, a little more to the CMN, but enough to prevent smuggling," said the leadership of SNCM.

The nine SNCM ships and the South (ex-CMN) assigned to services between Marseille, Nice and Corsica are therefore remained docked for the fifth consecutive day, some 13,000 passengers were affected since the conflict began. Many of them have changed their return by traveling on ships of the private company Corsica Ferries, Italian flag, which normally circulate. SNCM has expressed "outrage" because "this movement supposed to fight our competitors strengthens the contrary, beyond their expectations." Moreover, the director of the company for Corsica, Pierre-André Giovannini, expressed his "regret for the inconvenience to our customers, passengers and cargo carriers, and this new blow to the island economy." He said over the weekend of May 8 Bridge is "one of the most important pre-season tourist" for Corsica.

Political parties challenged

The striker will meet again on Monday to decide on the following movement. "So is the future of thousands of jobs in our profession," says the union in a statement savings account payday advance. The strike comes as the ferries market suffered the turmoil of the crisis in recent years. Thus, since its passage in the private sector in 2006, SNCM has almost always been in the red. She was accused of operating losses of 15 million euros last year. Especially, the CGT sailors had already scored a major coup a year ago by stopping work for 47 days, never seen to SNCM. If it were to get bogged down, however this new strike is unlikely to change the trajectory of the group. The direction of the SNCM instead reiterated its "determination to rapidly modernize and evolve the company, in all areas." Last March, the chief executive, Marc Dufour, warned that SNCM would have to separate at least two car ferries and 800 employees in 1617.

The case quickly took a political turn. Friday, a trade union delegation was received in Paris by representatives of different parties, including the national secretary of the PCF, Peter Lawrence. His party has tabled in the Senate on March 22 a bill to require all companies operating in France the first entry in register of ships, making them subject to French social laws. Sailors CGT also met the spokesman of the Socialist Party, Benoît Hamon, who is, according to the union, "clearly in favor of the adoption of this law," and a consultant Francois Hollande. In Marseille, finally, a delegation was received by the federation UMP.

ALSO READ:

"Corsica cut in subsidies from SNCM

"SNCM delays disengagement of Veolia

"SNCM: 800 jobs threatened

Presidential in major cities Paris | Leeds | Lyons | Toulouse | Leeds | Sheffield | Liverpool | Bordeaux | Lille

The International Monetary Fund will have an additional $ 430 billion, that he will agree about forty of its 188 member countries. Christine Lagarde did not hide his satisfaction at the conclusion of meetings this weekend in Washington, first at the G20 then the policy committee IMF policy.

"This almost doubles the Fund's lending capacity. This really shows the determination of the international community have the tools to resist and defend against the attacks, "said the CEO, relieved to have obtained a strengthening of the" firewall "of the IMF it deemed absolutely necessary.

In addition to the States in the euro area, which had announced in December 2011 their stake to 150 billion euros (nearly $ 200 billion), other countries of the European Union bring their mite, including the United Kingdom (15 billion). Japan (60 billion) will be the largest individual contributor, while Saudi Arabia and South Korea will contribute 15 billion each. In total, $ 340 billion that was pledged by name. What to add 90 billion from a number of emerging countries, including China, Russia, India and Brazil. But they prefer to "talk first to their publics the number of their contribution," said Christine Lagarde.

From this list, the United States and Canada are conspicuous by their absence. Washington had previously stated that he was not opposed to a process of strengthening the IMF on a voluntary basis, but he would not participate. As for the Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has said aloud what many feel a whisper: "We believe that the Fund has adequate resources to meet immediate needs. The reality is that European countries are relatively rich … They must take the bull by the horns and solve this problem with their own resources, "he said at a news conference.

Expanded powers

The euro zone's balance of payments surplus is globally vis-à-vis the outside world should not in fact need to be rescued by the IMF, confirmed privately one of his top officials. But Europeans are reluctant to help each other themselves as necessary, and they need the funds as a policeman to impose unpopular reforms programs, as is the case for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Vice Minister of Finance of Singapore, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who chairs the committee that guidance of the Fund, did not mince his words nor his vis-à-vis the Europeans: "The firewall is necessary, but far from enough. The real solution lies in the fiscal and structural reforms to address the real causes of the crisis. "

Emerging countries, by the voice of the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega again requested an extension of their power within the IMF, and they got satisfaction. The G20 communiqué pledges to "a comprehensive review of quotas by January 2013." Moreover, the central bankers of the G8 countries, who gathered in Washington specifically too, were willing to facilitate "access to capital markets' five state" Arab Spring ".

ALSO READ:

"Soros:" Europe could only finance its stimulus "

"The IMF urges negotiations to boost its resources

"Euro area: an agreement for firewall

800 000 000 000

"The euro area markets worried again

A few days ago, British fashion designer Stella McCartney presented with great fanfare the official uniform of British sportsmen at the Olympic Games in London. A choice at the initiative of Adidas, which has not hesitated to use one of the hottest designers of the moment to boost his image. Although the final result has not been universally accepted. But the detail is not so harmless, while dress codes of the great champions continue to evolve under the combined effect of economic and political pressures.

New more powerful actors in the sports economy

The sexy outfits would only respoonsables the success of beach volleyball according to critics.

Nicolas Sarkozy retorted tit for tat. Questioned Tuesday by Anne Lauvergeon in an interview published by L'Express, the Head of State, on Friday invited to iTV, has applied to meet about the former president of Areva. "All this is of politicking," he judged. "What makes it less credible that Lauvergeon said was that she waited to be put out to challenge a system that she wanted to continue to participate in the first place as president of Areva," Nicolas Sarkozy has argued low fee payday loans.

He also underlined the political commitment of the former CEO, also old Sherpa Mitterrand: "It is now the president of Liberation, with a known commitment to the left". Lauvergeon has headed the supervisory board of the newspaper in July 2011.

Sorry, this video is not available on your device.

It is an exercise that required this year, just days before the presidential election, takes a turn for controversy. The government on Wednesday presented to the finance committees of the Parliament of the stability program years 2012 to 2016. Designed in Brussels, this document describes how France has reduced to zero by 2016 the cumulative deficit of the state of the social security and local authorities. Consolidation that will reduce gradually the weight of public debt to national wealth in 2014.

To balance its accounts, France must find 115 billion. The government has chosen, policy, to focus the effort on spending two thirds (74 billion) and third on revenue (41 billion). This is the roadmap that Nicolas Sarkozy has taken in its election manifesto. "Just focus on revenue, tax advocate hype as some ignoring the impact it would have on growth, is clearly not a political alternative," says Valérie Pécresse, Minister for the Budget, in an allusion to thinly veiled Francois Hollande.

Indeed, the government does not reduce expenses but limit the increase to 0.4% plus inflation, from 2012 to 2016. The 74 billion is savings compared to the natural drift. "The rise in government spending was 0.3% in 2010 and 0% in 2011, the never-seen since 1960. This shows that our target of 0.4% is credible, "says Valérie Pécresse personal loan for poor credit. To reach it, the government will pursue the course of recent years (knowing also that the reforms already enacted will generate even 39 billion savings in 2016): non-replacement of one out of two official journal of programs for lower government spending, freeze state transfers to local, rising Medicare spending limited to 2.5%.

Optimistic growth forecasts

On the revenue side, Bercy believes that tax increases enacted since late 2010 (on the plane niches, rising 7% VAT …) will generate 33 billion in revenues in 2016. It would be only 8 billion to find. Much less optimistic about the performance measures already adopted, the PS 22 billion talks to find and Nicolas Sarkozy accused of hiding tax increases to voters. Both candidates are fishing perhaps assuming a too strong economic growth (1.75% in 2013 for both, 2% from 2014 in the stability program taken up by Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande to 2.25%) . But less growth means less revenue and more social spending.

However, Nicolas Sarkozy, unlike Francois Hollande, said the return to balance a priority, regardless of the growth. Francois Hollande and provides a zero deficit in 2017 alone. "We go out of adjustment in 2016, we take a serious risk, if not more," warned Baroin before the Members of the Finance Committee.

Electricity bills and fuel have been salted for the month of February. According to INSEE, household consumption has jumped from 3% in February as a result largely of the "sharp increase" of 11.7% in energy costs over the month. Moreover, "the cold snap would boosted purchases of winter clothing," notes INSEE, which noted a 5.7% rebound in apparel purchases, after a fall on the last two months.

This unexpected buoyancy (the market had forecast a rise in consumption of 0.2%) is unlikely to last. For starters, "we expect a drop in energy consumption in March, the weather being much milder than usual," Analysis Dominique Barbet, an economist at BNP Paribas guaranteed personal loan approval. Spending on "durable goods" (household goods, autos) fell slightly in February (-0.7%).

Especially, the prospects are not good. According to the latest survey of consumer sentiment, they do not plan to make major purchases, likely to support consumption, and therefore French growth. Finally, "stagnating incomes suggests that households will not increase their spending significantly," anticipates Alain Carbon, an economist at Natixis.

ALSO READ:

"The morale of the French presidential bounces off bottom

»Gas and Electric: unpaid bills for after the cold

Corsairfly becomes … Corsair International. "A change but not revolution," agrees Pascal de Izaguirre, CEO of the airline of TUI. The leaders of the giant European Tourism chose a facelift to revive the company acquired by Nouvelles Frontieres in 1990 when Jacques Maillot was at the controls. At the time it was called Corse Air International

.

Everything has changed since: the German TUI shareholder meeting in France Marmara Tourinter, New Frontiers and renamed the airline Corsairfly stripped a quarter of its workforce … He has invested hundreds of millions of euros to transform the old a charter company whose regular cabs devices have been fully refurbished mid-2013 with a budget of 36 million euros.

Financially, the subsidiary of TUI could not afford a complete change of name: "Rather than spend a fortune to switch brands, it is better to devote resources to what the customer appreciates the ground or on board" , says Pascal de Izaguirre CEO of Corsair International.  

Erase the image and low-cost charter

A budget of 2.5 million euros will be spent on change of visual identity (logo creation, uniforms, aircraft painting). The first plane scratched white and blue logo of the retro graphics will be delivered in July. The other six, including two new A 330 will follow until mid-April 2013.

But another reason is given by the CEO of Corsairfly to explain the lack of boldness in the choice of name: "The Corsair brand is extremely well known. Hostesses and stewards are known to be friendly and smiling. "The old company Nouvelles Frontieres is certainly an image associated with cheap, but also a Spartan comfort.

"Corsair will celebrate its 31 anniversary this year, little known company such longevity, defends Pascal de Izaguirre. Many have disappeared, new arrivals are. We remove the "fly" but also the name of "smiley" logo TUI, not to hide our group membership, but to erase anything that might suggest the charter or low cost. "…. ….

The team of TUI wants to play the card of elegance, high quality services, while remaining competitive on price. The number of seats "open sea" (comparable to a business class) increases from 24 to 36 in the Boeing 747 and 18 to 26 in the A 330. "We have invested heavily in-flight services, airport lounges to Orly, Pointe-à-Pitre and Fort de France, and soon the meeting …"

New destinations

The relaunch of the company scheduled two years ago falls to one of the worst periods through which the world of air: the rates are low while the cost of jet fuel has stabilized at a very high level that weakens companies.

"This does not undermine our vision and direction, says the CEO of TUI France. We are currently addressing the structural problems of the company and it is not challenged by economic factors. TUI, our shareholder, has powerful resources. He made a choice that takes the long term. "

Corsair International will also review its destinations in September, the company will cease to serve Miami. Instead it will open a line to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, a destination that has grown 15% since the beginning of the year.

ALSO READ:

"Some European groups headwind against the carbon tax

PSG collects records! The Parisian club has made the biggest transfer in buying Argentine Javier Pastore 42 million and the club was the biggest spender of all Ligue 1 last summer by investing over $ 80 million. This winter, PSG has hired three months ago the highest paid coach in France in the person of Carlo Ancelotti paid over $ 6 million per year then the club has spent the most money in Ligue 1 last winter (more than 18 million). Accordingly, in June, the capital club could show, according to Le Parisien, the highest deficit of all clubs of the elite of French football: € 100 million! For the 2011-2012 season, the direction of the PSG is expected to generate 100 million euros in revenue while its expenses are expected to reach 200 million. Half of which are transfers.  

The Parisian club had ancipité mid-season losses of 40 million-which, incidentally is also a record for the Ligue 1. But meanwhile, PSG sacked coach Antoine Kombouare to 4 million, hired a new coach and his staff of half a dozen people, recruited three new players and paid premiums of collective and individual matches.

Germany as a model

Anyway, it would be very bad news if it was confirmed that UEFA will then point at the end of the 2012-2013 season on the accounts of European football clubs. "Clubs must present a cumulative deficit of 45 million euros, said Andrea Traverso, director of financial fair play in UEFA." If this is not the case, the offending clubs face penalties ranging from simple financial penalties up to exclusion from European competitions.  

This perspective does not seem to scare the president of PSG, Nasser al-Kelaïfi, who plans to spend on transfers 100 million euros a year for "five or six years" in an interview with Italian newspaper Gazzetta dello Sport. "I expect a restless summer transfer window next to PSG to do well in the European Cup, but for the transfer markets following the Parisian club will not need to spend much money, says Vincent Chaudel, sports specialist at Kurt Salmon. PSG also must have some stability also sports ". So why is this statement? "The club has an obligation imposed by the results of Qatari shareholders, given the amounts invested in moves, he says. Through this declaration, the President shows other European teams and players who could join him next summer he has the means of its ambitions. "

To offset these significant costs, the Qatari leader expects that the club improves "its revenue marketing, TV rights and ticket sales including" and thus make a profit "within five years." That only the German club Bayern Munich was able to achieve in 2010-2011 with a profit of 1.3 million. In football too, Germany is a model.