Dubai: a risk of 5 billion for the bank in Europe
The exposure of European banks to the debt of Dubai and societies that are attached is estimated at around 13 billion euros, according to a note published Thursday by the bank Credit Suisse after the moratorium request made Wednesday by the emirate.
Analysts at Credit Suisse indicate that exposure of European banks in the Middle East does not exceed 1 to 2% of their commitments, Dubai represents only a portion. Assuming Dubai and parastatal entities would default on 50% of their debt, the bill would amount to 5 billion euros for European banks, which would represent an increase of 5% of their reserves for 2010 by note.
The total debt of Dubai was estimated at 80 billion dollars in 2008, 70 billion dollars to support public companies.Dubai World, a company of shares of the emirate, it weighs only 59 billion dollars of this amount.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, exposure would exceed the amount estimated by Credit Suisse and reach about 26 billion euros.
In his note, Credit Suisse mentions numerous names of European banks, including Britain's HSBC, RBS and Barclays, and the French BNP Paribas and Calyon (Credit Agricole), Deutsche Bank and UBS of Switzerland.
Questioned by AFP, Calyon, a subsidiary of Bank Financing and Investment Credit Agricole said its exposure was "weak" and concerns including syndicated loans (loans to a company by several banks).
Credit Suisse said its exposure was "not significant", while UBS has declined comment.The Dutch ING has reported that its exposure was "manageable" and that he had "no reason to revise its estimates of cost of risk" (unpaid customer).
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