A cold shower. Francois Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault, the new duo at the head of the executive, could not begin their terms with worse prospects on the employment front. According to the Bureau of Unedic, the unemployment insurance system – that can not be accused of anti-hollandisme since it is composed, for half, representatives of trade unions – the number of registered unemployed in Class A (no activity) should swell to 178,500 in 2012 and then to 128,300 next year. A total of 306,800 additional people in two years, an increase of 10.6% over current levels.

This would be a disaster for the head of state who is committed during the campaign to reverse the unemployment curve, within one year after his election. To revise its forecast of 2012 and first establish financial and employment projections for 2013, services Unedic have incorporated into their models – reliable, in general – the new growth assumptions adopted by the consensus of economists (+ 0 , 3% and +1% of GDP for the current year and the next).

Scenario B more positive

If you look at job seekers who exercised reduced activity (categories B and C), increasing the total number of unemployed in the Hexagon will be even higher than 110,200, representing an increase of 9.7% in two years. Main explanation: the employment should fall further to 91,300 units in two years, bringing to nearly 300,000 the number of jobs destroyed in the Hexagon on the equivalent of a seven-year term. These poor forecasts, if realized, would further aggravate a little hole Unedic whose accumulated deficit frôlerait 18.2 billion euros end 2013. A record.

The new president and his prime minister, however, will find two tiny glimmers of hope in the fifteen pages of notes prediction Unedic. First, the deficit expected in late 2012 was revised downwards (from 1.3 billion euros) compared to recent estimates, established mid-January because of poor advance of revenues and expenditures. Second, the unemployment insurance system has also established a scenario B if growth would be higher in 2012 and 2013 – the bet made by Francois Hollande with the policies he wants to implement.  

If the GDP grew by 0.7% this year and 1.4% in 2013, the rising number of unemployed in Class A would be reduced to 169,200 over two years (half that in the central hypothesis) and the economy would begin to create jobs in 2013, with a positive balance of about 53,300 jobs by the end of next year.

The impact on the finances of Unedic would be immediate: the debt would be reduced to 17.2 billion at end 2013, one billion less than the central scenario. A completely different horizon.

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This is the season ranking of "best companies"! Wednesday the companies in which to work were rewarded by the Great Place To Work Institute, PepsiCo and Octo Technology plebiscite. Thursday night, the third edition of "Randstad Awards", organized by the working group and temporary recruitment of the same name, has honored the attractiveness of employers to the general public.

The surprise of the Top 20 "images employer" is not so much the identity of the winner, Eurocopter (EADS subsidiary), already No. 1 last year, the criteria that determined the choice of 12,000 respondents and 224 companies that tie in the race.

Compensation in effect makes a comeback in the criteria put forward by the French. She even takes the top spot with 71% response rate, the highest level since the beginning of the study in France, when she held the third position for two. Sign that the issue of purchasing power is becoming more and more in the public and among employees, it is women who put most clearly in the lead compensation criteria of attractiveness.

Aeronautics and media are reversible

The working environment (63%) and job security (54%) are respectively second and third place in respondents' answers, while questions about why companies are investing heavily in time, money and action, seem much more secondary to the general public, be it social responsibility (11%), the diversity policy (10%) or training (16%). As for the interest of jobs or good-life balance working life, are arguments also down this year in the concerns of public opinion payday loans.

Among the sectors that are most dreaming and the French in which they would one day work, aviation retains its pole position with 46% in favor, before the media (40%) and consumer goods industries (36% ). Probably related to the news she had experienced particularly negative in 2011 with the affairs of the Mediator or PIP prostheses, the pharmaceutical industry is one of four diving places and suffers from an image somewhat degraded.

If the helicopter manufacturer Eurocopter continues to lead the ranking of top 20 "Randstad Awards" behind several changes occur. Airbus assumes the second step of the podium, with a gain of four seats, followed by EDF winning eight seats. They succeed Canal + (ranked 8th in the ranking this year) and Thales (16th, down from thirteen seats).

Some companies make good growth, a sign of their appeal to the French, like the SNCF (7th, up 6 places), STMicroelectronics, which jumped 32 places in 18th position, or Safran ranked for the first time this year (19th).

But others simply disappeared from radar Randstad, like Club Med, Sanofi-or Air France-KLM (the company had received an award in 2009). "Even in times of crisis, you have to seduce, to attract and retain the best, in this continuity," Analysis Beharel Francis, president of Randstad in France. In other words, do not ease off on the analysis of its attraction: this must be the watchword for companies, even when unemployment soaring and that candidates are not lacking.

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Anticipate a future opening up slightly from the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. Wall Street and should build on the previous day, still driven by hopes of a coordinated European bank recapitalization.

After weeks of dithering, European leaders have taken in hand to avoid a collapse of the banking sector, weakened by the debt crisis, which brought down the French-Belgian group Dexia. The markets were also reassured by the publication of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. exceeded expectations: job creation in the private sector and the ISM services.

Caution before the employment figures

Investors in Europe and the United States should however be cautious before several major macroeconomic deadlines.On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday to maintain its 1.50% interest rate, reference the cost of credit in the euro zone, despite the sharp deterioration in the economic and financial crisis.

Investor caution should also be strengthened by the expectation of official figures of employment for the month of September in the United States to be published Friday. Meanwhile, new jobless claims are slightly lift the United States during the last week of September, according to figures released Thursday by the Washington Department of Labor.The Ministry has identified the deposit of 401,000 applications for unemployment benefits in the country from September 25 to October 1, adjusted for seasonal variations, or 1.5% over the previous week, which is consistent with the estimate of analysts.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro reached 1.3331 dollars. A barrel of crude is trading at 102.38 dollars for Brent North Sea and 79.50 dollars for U.S. crude.The ounce of gold is trading in 1644 dollars.

Investors will have their eyes on Apple and Yahoo

As for values, investors will have their eyes on the technology sector.

• Apple should be particularly observed after the announcement of the demise of the group's founder Steve Jobs.

• Yahoo is the subject of new rumors of a possible bid from U.S. computer giant Microsoft, which had tried to capture in 2008 of U.S. internet group.

• Hewlett-Packard should not make further major acquisitions in the software after the acquisition of Autonomy, according to statement from the group's new boss Meg Whitman, quoted by Reuters.

• Boeing received an order for $ 1.1 billion from Ethiopian Airlines for four Boeing 777 freighters.

• Gilead Sciences has granted a license agreement Boehringer Ingelheim for the exclusive rights to research, development and commercialization of an anti-integrase for the treatment of HIV.

• Marriott International has released the third quarter, earnings per share of $ 0.29, up 32% year on year. Turnover was 2.9 billion dollars against 2.6 billion last year. The revenue per available room key indicator in the hotel sector grew by 8.7% on a comparable basis, while prices rose by 5.3%.

Also note Peabody Energy and ArcelorMittal will extend their bid for Macarthur Coal until October 28.

After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.

But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.

"Target needed '

Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years cheap business cards…

In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.

These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.

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The Paris Bourse has been optimism in holiday Monday of the Assumption. The CAC 40, which began on the exchange increased by 1.07% to 3248.14 points, ended on a higher, more moderate, from 0.78% to 3239.06 points. The index in Paris fell into the red in mid-day before recovering.

The movement is the same in the rest of Europe. After opening sharply higher, European stock markets have slowed their progress mid-day before returning to finish the colors in a small increase. At closing, the London Stock Exchange and Frankfurt gained 0.57% 0.41%%. After remaining in the red part of the day, Madrid ended with a gain of 0.71%.Exchanges of Milan, Lisbon and Athens are closed due to holiday.

No Eurobonds on the menu Tuesday's markets are very nervous before Tuesday's meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They must discuss reform of the governance of the euro area, sensitive issue for the markets. The Franco-German promises to make such joint proposals by the end of the summer. Investors are calling for the creation of "Eurobonds", which would sign the pooling of public debt in the euro area. But Germany has dampened hopes by mid-morning by announcing that the possible creation of common obligations to countries in the euro area "will play no role" at the meeting on Tuesday."The Euro-bonds are not an option," added the spokesman of the Ministry of Finance during a press conference. The Elysee in a few minutes later confirmed that the issue of Eurobonds was "not on the agenda."

Meanwhile, the British Finance Minister, George Osborne, today called the euro area to move towards a more integrated budget to bring the world economy on the path of trust. The euro area "must now demonstrate its commitment to greater integration of budget and governance arrangements that prevent moral hazard and reinforce fiscal responsibility," said he.

In addition, the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn called on European countries to adopt "very quickly" the decisions of July 21, and provided that the applicants were working "day and night" to this.

The next publication, this Monday will be very light. On the agenda are the indices of activity of the New York Fed and the real estate market across the Atlantic.

The bank-shaped

On the corporate side, Societe Generale (2.92% to 25.01 euros) will be followed. The Financial Markets Authority (AMF) initiated an investigation of market rumors that circulated this week on Societe Generale, announced Friday its president Jean-Pierre Jouyet.

The banking sector is well oriented. Natixis is the largest increase of ACC (3.95% to 3.23 euros). Credit Agricole gained 3.54% to 6.75 euros, BNP Paribas rises from 3.22% to 38.42 euros, ahead of Axa 2.43% to 11.18 euros.

France Telecom (0.81% to 13.14 euros): the telephone operator Orange has unveiled some clues on the future model of the iPhone Appel keeps top secret.

GDF Suez (0.94% to 20.95 euros) has initiated "discussions" to sell its stake from 10.4% in the West Franklin field in the North Sea, the French energy group intends to transfer for 600 million euros.

Alstom (-0.55% to 32.44 euros): Goldman Sachs rose to "neutral" on the title with a price target reduced to 43 against 52 euros.

Danone (-0.55% to 46.08 euros): UniCredit has raised its rating to "buy" against "hold".

While European stock markets, starting with Paris, still closed on Friday decreases, Baroin called to remain calm. The Minister of Economy, which had cut short his vacation to "take stock with his teams," according to the Elysée, stressed the need to "keep a cool head and not make a tracing paper of the excitement that can be observed on a given market. "

Invited to France Info, just after the close of the Paris Bourse, which for the first time ever signed a tenth meeting of consecutive decline, including the minister explained that "the questions posed from a double question mark: the character of the strong global economic growth and the important issue in Europe and worldwide of this problem of public debt. "

On this last point, Baroin said that "the determination of the 17 heads of state of the euro area should not doubt the investors." And remember, in reference to the plan of aid to Greece reached July 21, that "in Europe, there was an agreement by the Heads of State very important because it offered answers payday loans in one hour. These responses must be heard by the markets. "

Latency

The Minister of Economy, however, admitted that there was "a latency reduction" between the announcement of the plan, which is "a good plan," and its practical implementation. It must indeed be ratified by national parliaments. In this regard, Baroin was keen to dispel doubts about the possibility of rejection by the German parliamentarians. "The plan will be voted on July 21. There is no other way to protect our currency which is the common good of the countries in the region, "said he.But "time is not the Democratic one click of a market operator," he said.

In order to "restore investor confidence," Baroin also ensures that "we must strengthen the governance of the euro area to make it optimal."

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The majority union of airline pilots, the SNPL, announced Thursday night that he raised his notice for the strike that was scheduled for August 5 to 8. This announcement follows the government's decision to follow the recommendations of the mediator.

In its report issued on Thursday, the mediator Raphaël Hadas-Lebel makes proposals for the reform of the pension fund of the crew – and the conflict is necessary because the reserves are diminishing – is done in a more progressive, giving more visibility long term and encourages staff to extend their business no fax payday loans.

In the wake of the submission of this report, Xavier Bertrand and Thierry Mariani sent a letter Thursday to the unions.Proposals Raphael Hadas-Lebel "seem integrate the concerns of various parties" and "achieve a balanced reform bill," wrote the Ministers of Labour and Transport, who are committed to apply on January 1.

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Lefigaro.fr – Since his triple gold medal at the European Championships in Budapest in 2010, Camille Lacourt has increased its advertising contracts. How does the commercial success he started?

Jean-François-Salessy After his success in Budapest in August 2010, Camille has indeed come to me with Fabien Gilot Ménart and William, all three members of the Swimming Club of Marseilles, so we work together. In less than 24 hours in September 2010, and even if I was going to take a year off, it was decided. Camille's situation was a bit special because it suddenly goes from darkness to light, and was approached by many brands, especially in the beauty and cosmetics.We are closer to Clarins and their way of approaching things convinced us to work with them, rather than with other brands, less respectful of the requirements for driving a top athlete. The first six-year contract (to 200,000 euros per year, ie), indexed on the results of Camille and with a conversion clause, was based on what competitors offered. It was a beautiful first contract. We have also partnered with the OEM Tyre, which is unusual since Camille involved in the development and technical improvement of products it uses. He is also interested in the sale of these products, between 10 and 15% of sales according to the ranges.

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I do not believe, and I do not want to turn into Camille Lacourt Christmas tree.We will announce in September a new partnership with a ready-to-wear, but it should be the last. He is now fine partnerships should not be wasted by "selling" in all directions. When talking about total earnings of Camille Lacourt (estimated this year to 700,000 euros ed), we forget that it is barely a month's salary football star. On the other hand, it is undeniable that the French swimming much more interested in brands and sponsors that there are six or seven years. I think Camille can say thank you to Laure Manaudou, who opened a gap, taking the very strong public support. It is no secret: it has made this popular sport, which attracted the public, media and sponsors. Today these brands look like a real sport discipline of competition, with major events and boys and girls out of the ordinary …who is a potential advertising. In a few months, these boys and girls who emerge may tell themselves, thank you to Camille Lacourt!

Jeremy just Stravius, who also athletic Tuesday, he may steal the show with brands?

It is a bit simplistic to look at it that way. Each swimmer to his personality. Camille Lacourt someone is authentic, casual and simple, has a rather glamorous image. This is not a scoop. But by winning yesterday with Jeremy Stravius ​​his world title in 100 meter backstroke, he also confirmed that he had not physically beautiful, he had another dimension. Which was very important to us because being European champion was not enough.If that fails, many would have indeed been delighted to say that he had lost in the advertising contracts and partnerships! The next objective is to confirm the sporting dimension to the London Olympics in 2012 (which would also provide the swimmer performance related bonuses as part of its contracts with Clarins and Tyre, ed.) For his part, Jeremy Stravius ​​has the best performance of his career. I am not his agent but I think its position corresponds to a different segment than Camille. His image more reassuring, more associated with strength, may be of interest to companies in the energy sector, banking or insurance. Like Alain Bernard for example, and partnerships with EDF Assurances or April.

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• Why raising the ceiling of the U.S. debt is it so urgent?

The race against Barack Obama committed by a deadline, a week today. Established by Congress to 14.294 billion dollars, the upper limit of U.S. debt has been reached in mid-May and, according to its own calculations, the Treasury will no longer meet its obligations vis-à-vis its creditors on Aug. 2. It will no longer pay its bills or not the officials. And two days later, on August 4, it must be replaced for 87 billion of bonds maturing.

• What would happen in the absence of agreement?

The United States currently receive the highest rating (triple A) to the three major rating agencies, allowing them to borrow at market interest rates particularly advantageous. They would automatically degraded.Standard & Poor's and Moody's warned them in July: the risk of default will result in a sanction. The interest charged by investors to lend to the United States would go up instantly. The Democrats do not hesitate to the argument.

China, the first holder of U.S. Treasuries with 1.16 trillion dollars in May, also has a strong appeal for Washington to protect its interests. "We hope the U.S. government will take concrete measures to build confidence in international financial markets," said Chinese foreign exchange administration.

Deterioration of the debt of the United States when Europe is in turmoil, subject to the constant pressure of these rating agencies, would inevitably have consequences on chain U.S. and international financial institutions, which must be able to pledge AAA-rated assets to get themselves ready. The credibility of the country abroad would be tainted, as well as the presidency of Barack Obama. All this would jeopardize U.S. economic activity – and, by implication, the world. Already, the earthquake in Japan penalizes industry, unemployment remains high and the Conference Board provides a "slow growth". A default could dramatically worsen things.

• What is blocking the negotiations?

In Tokyo, the stock market took a break after seven straight session chained. Around 7 am on Thursday, the Nikkei loose 0.14% to 10,066.20 points, still maintaining the threshold of 10,000 points achieved by closing yesterday. Orders for capital goods in the private sector in Japan, excluding energy and shipbuilding, rose 3% in May compared with April, a sign that the investment return to the tsunami of March 11.Spending on equipment rose sharply for manufacturers of electronic equipment for telecommunications (28.4%) and precision instruments (31.5%), rising also, to a lesser extent, the manufacturers of automotive and suppliers (2.9%).

Note values ​​aside, there are rumors that the next release in 2012, the Sony PS4 (0.68% to 2208 yen), six years after the release of the PlayStation 3.

Elsewhere in Asia, the trend is also sluggish, as small movements recorded the day before in the region. And Australia, the S & P / ASX gleans 0.05% to 4607.40 points. The Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton (-0.13% to 44n39 Australian dollars) has suspended its operations Thursday to sea and rail transport to the site of its large iron ore mine in Western Australia, after " major incident "that took the life of an employee, he said.BHP said the accident happened early Thursday morning on its facility in Port Hedland which is exported the ore on the west coast of Australia.

In South Korea, the KRX managed to climb more sharply in the green, growing by 0.48% to 4640.52 points. Samsung Electronics Group (-1.89% to 881,000 won) said Thursday that he was counting on an operating profit for the second quarter 2011, down 26% to 3,700 billion won (2.4 billion euros ), against 5,010 billion won a year earlier.At the same time, its sales should be up 2.9% to 39,000 billion won, against 37,890 billion won a year earlier.

China has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points

Moreover, the battle between the U.S. computer maker Apple and Samsung has further escalated, the first requiring U.S. authorities blocked the import of smartphones and tablets of the second. The two companies accused each other since April to copy and to violate patents, increasing the number of complaints to both United States and South Korea, but also in Japan or Germany.

In India, the BSE advance of 0.580% to 18,820.10 points. In Singapore, the Straits Times is 0.49% to 3130 points. Finally in China, Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 0.66% to 22,666.10 points and the CSI 300 of Shangahi, 0.57% to 3131.58 points.Markets include the new and much higher rates that took place in China yesterday, Wednesday, the third since the beginning of the year. Rising consumer prices rose, with 5.5% in May, its highest level since July 2008.The yuan, it continues to appreciate.

The small increase in oil

Oil prices were on the upside in electronic trading Thursday in Asia, due to signs of an increase in consumption in the United States, world's largest consumer of oil. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August takes 66 cents to 97.31 dollars.That of Brent North Sea crude for delivery gained 57 cents to equal 114.19 dollars.

On Wednesday, oil prices have retreated a bit in New York, however, offering some resistance to a series of negative indicators for the application, between rate hikes in China and fears of contagion from the debt crisis in Europe.