U.S. recovery to the doubts
Sermon of the rating agency Standard & Poor's on the U.S. national debt and lowered polls because of soaring fuel prices: If last week was hard on the economic front for President Barack Obama, one that starts this Monday should not be much brighter. Many statistical publications should confirm that the pulse of the U.S. economy beats slower the last three months.
One of the main events of the week should be the first release on Thursday, the figure of U.S. growth in the first quarter of 2011. Economists are pessimists: the average of their predictions came to a small 1.8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the first three months of the year. Is small compared to the rate of progression of the end of 2010 (+3.1%).
Slowdown in consumption
Involved, "the slowdown in consumption of households" of 4% in late 2010 to 2% in early 2011, according to economists at Credit Agricole. The main engine of U.S. growth suffers from higher prices, primarily of those fuels. A gallon of gasoline has surpassed the symbolic $ 4 in recent weeks. Prolonged depression of non-residential property sector should also stopping growth.
Tuesday's publication of consumer confidence, should give a foretaste of the gloom that gnaws the Americans. Again, "the price of petrol should weigh heavily on consumer confidence which could result in penalizing the outlook for consumer spending, analysts expect the bank Nomura.
Still, "the resumption of the United States is on track," said Jean-Marc Lucas, an economist at BNP Paribas.Certainly, commodity prices will weigh on consumption, but "on the labor market, workers' incomes are starting to take off and the unemployment rate down." Goldman Sachs economists also expect that the expected slowdown in the first quarter is only temporary, due mainly to bad weather. "The situation is more difficult to read than usual (…) but we expect a recovery in the second quarter," they say.
Bernanke speech expected
The U.S. central bank, the Fed, for its part should give some details on its new economic forecast on Wednesday evening. Its chairman, Ben Bernanke, would then launch a new practice, the press conferences. For the sake of transparency and clarity, the Fed follows the lead of the European Central Bank. This latter practice this exercise since its inception.Not sure the words of Ben Bernanke be able to reassure the markets, amid debate about the effectiveness of monetary stimulus. Economists expect at best a status quo growth forecasts of the Fed.
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