The government, which this Tuesday the draft budget law for 2012, based his entire equation on a growth forecast of 1.75% for next year-until last August, he hoped it would reach 2.25 %. Despite the turbulence of increasingly stringent in Europe, Bercy firmly believes this new hypothesis.

Recently the Minister of Economy Baroin claimed to have "serious reasons to consider it achievable," while his colleague Valerie Pécresse Budget also reaffirmed Sunday that the government's projections were "conservative and realistic."

Yet, scenarios and expert succession, one after the other, come to doubt the probability of the hypothesis-government.Monday is the Institute of COE-Rexecode conditions that drive the point home: it provides a GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012-exactly the consensus of economists. Or acceleration or slowdown: after the air hole last spring, COE-Rexecode see activity continue on a pace soft below the trend between 2001 and 2007.

Monitor the distribution of credit

"We do not retain perspective as the most likely scenario that the recessive stock markets seem to play for Europe," says Institute (close to employers), chaired by Michel Didier.But further, he warns, watch in the coming months "the impact on the lending of a possible increase in the cost of bank refinancing and even more difficult access to liquidity," and that "the downward revision of investment programs that entrepreneurs may have to perform under extra care" against the current deterioration of the environment.

COE-Rexecode also cautions that its expectations are based on "the assumption that the interventions of the ECB and the introduction of means of the European Financial Stability manage to break the downward spiral of financial markets and to avoid the contagion of Other States in the euro area and the banking system. "

In this context, reduction of public deficits "is a priority," but "to limit the short-term impact on growth and raise potential growth, cost savings are preferable to increase the tax burden," insists the Institute. Issue of competitiveness.

After the 2010 reform, pensions should not be a real issue this year in the budget of the social security system. In fact, the main novelty of this result to come Woerth reform: the legal age will increase to 60 years and 8 months for those born in 1952. The other change was as expected since it corresponds to Nicolas Sarkozy's commitment to increase the "small pensions" by 25% during his five-year term: this will be done on April 1, with a final increase of 4.7 % of the minimum pension for single people.

But Thursday, François Fillon has caused confusion. Referring to the economic convergence between France and Germany, he said that things were moving in the field of corporate tax.He added: "It will take time to go to a joint work towards a common retirement age, to a gradual convergence of economic and social organization of our two countries." But the retirement age with full pension, except for long careers, will be increased to 67 years across the Rhine by 2029.

"Target needed '

Trial balloon of "Fillon-the-discipline"? Clumsiness (this passage was the only improvised his speech)? Applies to defuse his entourage: "Convergence is a general purpose necessary to maintain the competitiveness of France. The recent pension reform is an element of social convergence, and the government does not intend to go beyond in the coming months, "says an adviser.And up, tongue-in-cheek, that the barrier of 67 years had not been mentioned, and that convergence might as well be on "our" 62 years cheap business cards…

In fact, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to explain that further reform is needed, a year after he hammered the previous balance the books. But in the midst of primary socialist and the day of the budget of the social security, his statement could hardly go unnoticed. For François Hollande, Fillon "revealed the program of Nicolas Sarkozy" in 2012. Segolene Royal accused her of "not being honest", the systems are so different that any comparison between the 67-year German and French 62 years is risky.Exact to the point that Valerie Pécresse also used the argument to play the controversy, noting that the retirement age without financial penalty for people without all their quarters of contribution, would be increased from 2023 in France … in 67 years.

These subtleties have also pushed Martine Aubry to say that the Prime Minister does "not know the subject" and "has a problem with the actual figures." What afoul of Xavier Bertrand: "She would have done better to remain silent. If there is one subject on which the PS has done nothing, other reports and reports of decisions, it's pensions, "responded the Minister of Labour.

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European debts continue to stopping Asian stock markets. On Monday, the Nikkei lost 2.24% to 8541.81 points, in the wake of Wall Street, which lost 2.69% last Friday. U.S. markets had increased while their losses after the announcement of the resignation of Jürgen Stark, chief economist of the ECB, on funds disagreements within the institution to resolve the debt crisis. The G7 finance held in Marseille this weekend has not reassured investors, promising a response "strong" and "coordinated" to the crisis but without specifying its strategy.

Moreover, the prospect of a default of Greece begins to be taken seriously by the markets. Including information from a German newspaper Der Spiegel, which said that Berlin was preparing for the possibility of bankruptcy of Athens, information denied by the Greek Minister of Finance.In this context, Greece has promised two billion euros in additional savings, without, for now, calm the markets.

Oil was also down sharply

Other Asian stock markets follow the downward trend of the Nikkei. The S & P / ASX 200 in Sydney lost 3.31% to 4055.90 points. The BSE Sensex of Bombay loose 1.62% to 16,593, 30 points and the FTSE Singapore Straits Times down 1.29% at 1450, 10 points. Note that the Stock Exchange in Seoul, Shanghai and Taipei are closed on Monday.

The oil also appears in sharp decline. In electronic trading in the morning, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery lost 1.23 dollars to 86.01 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery at $ 1.02 111 $ 75.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro fell to its lowest level in a decade against the yen.In Asian trade, the euro fell to 104.90 yen, the lowest since July 2001. It is then rise slightly and was worth 105.32 yen at about 3 am, but was down to its listing in New York Friday to 23 hours (105.91 yen). The euro was also down sharply vis-à-vis the dollar at 1.3594 dollars around 3 hours, against 1.3649 dollars on Friday to 23 hours.

At the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones advance of 0.65% to 11,635 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 rise of 0.76%, respectively, to 1222 points and 0.81% to 2597 points. U.S. investors, it seems, was reassured, once last night, by the tone of "minutes" of the last monetary policy committee of the Fed. This report has indeed confirmed that the U.S. central bank did not rule to use new tools of monetary easing to support growth ever more threatened. A perspective that also prompted the European markets to rebound on Wednesday morning, when he had closed the previous day on a mixed note.Also in the interests of peace, the United States, President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy had a "heart attack" she was recovering at a slow pace as he prepares to unveil a new stimulus package.

Meanwhile, the volume still low despite the likely return of holidays for most investors, however, reflect a cautious market that continues. The current rebound, often excessive, thus remain fragile, the sudden relapse is, at every moment possible. And the meeting this Wednesday is evident, in this regard, not without risks.

The employment figures highly anticipated

The private sector in the United States slowed its hiring in August, creating 91,000 jobs over the month, less than expected by analysts, according to figures released Wednesday by consulting firm HR ADP.These new jobs, slightly lower than in July (109,000, revised), are lower than analysts' forecasts, which projected 100,000.

The Chicago PMI index of industrial activity for the month of August, from 3:45 p.m., will also be closely monitored. Orders to industry for the month of July (1600) and the weekly oil inventories (16:30) conclude the list of publications of macroeconomic days.

On the corporate side, the American phone AT & T (0.57% to 29.79 dollars) pledged Wednesday to repatriate to the United States currently filled 5,000 jobs in its call centers overseas, If green light to the acquisition challenged T-Mobile, the U.S. subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom.These employees will be "well paid", assured the group in a statement, recalling that he was the only major U.S. telecom operators to accept unions in its stores.

Bank of America (0.99% to 8.20 dollars) is about to further reduce its scope of activity in the mortgage, by stopping the sale of mortgage loans through independent agents, said Wednesday the Wall Street Journal , citing people familiar with the matter.

Hewlett-Packard (0.81% to 26.26 dollars) will temporarily restart production of its TouchPad Tablet, whose sales soared since the U.S. computer giant announced mid-August that he would cease to manufacture. HP announced on August 18 a sudden change in its strategy, through the cessation of production of its new tablet and its smartphones using the operating system of Palm webOS.HP also plans to separate its activities from production computers to refocus on software.

The CAC 40 is risky there twice this month. He was immediately returned. The threshold of 3000 points, as seen on the Paris market was down on Thursday 11 and Friday, August 19. On Monday morning, the Paris index recurred, opening down 0.85% to 2989.60 points. But again, it started to rise immediately after slipping below 3000, and closed on Monday evening at 3051.36 points (1.14%), having flown over 3100 points During the session this afternoon.

The level of 3000 points may well not be a technical threshold (it does not automatically trigger a sell order or purchase), it still plays a role of "support" on which the market arises before rebounding .Daniel Gravier, Head of Sales Trading at XTB France, believes that "this psychological level is transcribed in the courts and thus returns to a technical threshold."

The cross downward psychological sounded an alarm in markets which do not have a habit of getting carried away by their feelings. Professional traders define their purpose of orders passages through complex mathematical calculations, generated by high-powered software that constantly scan the share price indices, securities, commodities and all that is listed in order to predict the best time to invest or sell. And to build the software, the banks are recruiting the cream of engineers. But in this world of numbers, there is also a psychological dimension.So, see the CAC 40 fell below 3,000 points spurred the market to recover.

"This is a symbolic level, for its part says Harry Sebag, an analyst at Saxo Bank. In times of great nervousness, while visibility is poor, investors cling to benchmarks in the short term instant credit report. It's an excuse to reposition itself for purchase. This morning, we felt that the markets began to rebound because the shares had suffered a significant discount. " And hope for regime change in Libya was a good news for oil companies operating in the country, making a breath of excitement to the Paris Bourse.

"Safeguards" but also to accelerate the panic

"These thresholds are safeguards on which the market rebounds," says Harry Sebag. But the psychological effects of contracts may jégalement ouer a role accelerator panic attacks.The violent stalls indices observed recently on global stock markets have shown. In Paris the CAC 40 fell by 32.4% since July 1, affected by short-term concerns (the debt crisis in the euro zone, bad macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. and deteriorating debt rating for American Standard & Poor's), but not only. "In late July, the market downturn downward was rational, said Jean-Louis Mourier, an analyst at Aurel BCG. However, the extent of movement and the high volatility experienced by markets in recent days show an overreaction. "

The index in Paris he could sink even lower? The scenario is possible if the disappointing macroeconomic indicators continue to grow and corporate earnings in the third quarter does not reassure investors, said Harry Sebag.Saxo Bank analyst would watch while the threshold indicated by the software, around 2850 points or even 2500 points. "But I hope we will not get to that," he adds.

Lefigaro.fr – Since his triple gold medal at the European Championships in Budapest in 2010, Camille Lacourt has increased its advertising contracts. How does the commercial success he started?

Jean-François-Salessy After his success in Budapest in August 2010, Camille has indeed come to me with Fabien Gilot Ménart and William, all three members of the Swimming Club of Marseilles, so we work together. In less than 24 hours in September 2010, and even if I was going to take a year off, it was decided. Camille's situation was a bit special because it suddenly goes from darkness to light, and was approached by many brands, especially in the beauty and cosmetics.We are closer to Clarins and their way of approaching things convinced us to work with them, rather than with other brands, less respectful of the requirements for driving a top athlete. The first six-year contract (to 200,000 euros per year, ie), indexed on the results of Camille and with a conversion clause, was based on what competitors offered. It was a beautiful first contract. We have also partnered with the OEM Tyre, which is unusual since Camille involved in the development and technical improvement of products it uses. He is also interested in the sale of these products, between 10 and 15% of sales according to the ranges.

French swimmers are they becoming future footballers?

I do not believe, and I do not want to turn into Camille Lacourt Christmas tree.We will announce in September a new partnership with a ready-to-wear, but it should be the last. He is now fine partnerships should not be wasted by "selling" in all directions. When talking about total earnings of Camille Lacourt (estimated this year to 700,000 euros ed), we forget that it is barely a month's salary football star. On the other hand, it is undeniable that the French swimming much more interested in brands and sponsors that there are six or seven years. I think Camille can say thank you to Laure Manaudou, who opened a gap, taking the very strong public support. It is no secret: it has made this popular sport, which attracted the public, media and sponsors. Today these brands look like a real sport discipline of competition, with major events and boys and girls out of the ordinary …who is a potential advertising. In a few months, these boys and girls who emerge may tell themselves, thank you to Camille Lacourt!

Jeremy just Stravius, who also athletic Tuesday, he may steal the show with brands?

It is a bit simplistic to look at it that way. Each swimmer to his personality. Camille Lacourt someone is authentic, casual and simple, has a rather glamorous image. This is not a scoop. But by winning yesterday with Jeremy Stravius ​​his world title in 100 meter backstroke, he also confirmed that he had not physically beautiful, he had another dimension. Which was very important to us because being European champion was not enough.If that fails, many would have indeed been delighted to say that he had lost in the advertising contracts and partnerships! The next objective is to confirm the sporting dimension to the London Olympics in 2012 (which would also provide the swimmer performance related bonuses as part of its contracts with Clarins and Tyre, ed.) For his part, Jeremy Stravius ​​has the best performance of his career. I am not his agent but I think its position corresponds to a different segment than Camille. His image more reassuring, more associated with strength, may be of interest to companies in the energy sector, banking or insurance. Like Alain Bernard for example, and partnerships with EDF Assurances or April.

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• Why raising the ceiling of the U.S. debt is it so urgent?

The race against Barack Obama committed by a deadline, a week today. Established by Congress to 14.294 billion dollars, the upper limit of U.S. debt has been reached in mid-May and, according to its own calculations, the Treasury will no longer meet its obligations vis-à-vis its creditors on Aug. 2. It will no longer pay its bills or not the officials. And two days later, on August 4, it must be replaced for 87 billion of bonds maturing.

• What would happen in the absence of agreement?

The United States currently receive the highest rating (triple A) to the three major rating agencies, allowing them to borrow at market interest rates particularly advantageous. They would automatically degraded.Standard & Poor's and Moody's warned them in July: the risk of default will result in a sanction. The interest charged by investors to lend to the United States would go up instantly. The Democrats do not hesitate to the argument.

China, the first holder of U.S. Treasuries with 1.16 trillion dollars in May, also has a strong appeal for Washington to protect its interests. "We hope the U.S. government will take concrete measures to build confidence in international financial markets," said Chinese foreign exchange administration.

Deterioration of the debt of the United States when Europe is in turmoil, subject to the constant pressure of these rating agencies, would inevitably have consequences on chain U.S. and international financial institutions, which must be able to pledge AAA-rated assets to get themselves ready. The credibility of the country abroad would be tainted, as well as the presidency of Barack Obama. All this would jeopardize U.S. economic activity – and, by implication, the world. Already, the earthquake in Japan penalizes industry, unemployment remains high and the Conference Board provides a "slow growth". A default could dramatically worsen things.

• What is blocking the negotiations?

Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel arrived in the morning Thursday in Brussels after a marathon negotiation began in Berlin late Thursday afternoon and was to end in the Belgian capital in the evening. Wednesday evening between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, an agreement was set with the EU Presidency of Herman Von Rumpoy was then allowed to leak the outline in the morning, causing a positive market.

"Stock markets have been reassured by the existence of an agreement between Berlin, Paris and the ECB," says a close friend of Nicolas Sarkozy. The working meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel – "seven hours without interruption," according to the entourage of the head of state – was not enough to win the unconditional adherence of the fifteen other members of the euro area. "Many arrived without having in mind the highly technical aspects of this case. It took a lot to explain.Everyone wanted to be sure you understand the mechanisms involved, "said a relative of the head of state. Despite negotiating a lot longer than expected, counselors diplomatic head of state felt to hold the right end on Thursday night. "This agreement is a strong political message, for two reasons: it reaffirms the determination of the euro area does not drop Greece, and overhaul the European Stabilisation Fund, giving an additional area of ​​intervention" , we summarized in the entourage of the Head of State, on the sidelines of the meeting.

Over economic governance

Forced to stay away from microphones and cameras so as not to upset her "friend Angela," Nicolas Sarkozy has continued to play the conciliator between the requirements of the European Central Bank and those of Berlin, a role of "critical" that greeted elsewhere Yesterday a French banker."Angela is always careful not to get caught up too far," says Nicolas Sarkozy often. "It is more tactician, it is more a strategist," said one of his advisers. Strategist, the head of state to be tried since the beginning of the second Greek crisis, reaffirming the need for a strong political gesture in favor of a higher degree of integration of European economic policies. "This is the landing point from the beginning," says a consultant. If Angela Merkel wants to put Europe at the German time, imposing fiscal discipline, Nicolas Sarkozy intends to Chancellor at the time French, into accepting more economic governance. Seen from Paris, the summit held Thursday crossed then a further step towards integration and convergence of European economies."For several months, France blew up the clause of the Lisbon Treaty, which prohibited the bailout of a failed state. This allowed us to intervene in Greece, Portugal, Ireland. She obtained the creation of a European background stabilization, and modification of the Stability Pact, adding a preventive and a macro component. Without this component, Ireland could not have been brought to heel. Finally, we pushed for the creation of a pact for the euro convergence and competitiveness, "says a close adviser to the president to measure progress. "All this was unimaginable a year ago," he says.

Barack Obama sought Monday to change the tone of the negotiations on reducing the budget deficit. "I am ready to face criticism from Democrats for an agreement that allows to raise the debt ceiling," said Monday the president of the United States, before resuming discussions with congressional leaders have fallen into the impasse. "We will reach agreement before August 2," promised the president at a press conference.

Placing himself as an arbiter between the two factions partisan, Barack Obama said: "The Republicans are going to have to compromise, as the Democrats." He hoped that the negotiations continue "all day", "until a solution is found."

Their challenge is twofold. The first is to adopt a compromise that reduces the medium to long-term U.S. budget deficits.But the compromise also depends on the adoption by August 2 of a law that raises the ceiling for the debt of the United States. Otherwise, the U.S. Treasury would no longer issue the bonds needed to honor the debts of Uncle Sam was general such a defect of the United States would have catastrophic consequences for the entire global economy.

Avoiding tax increases

During the weekend negotiations have stalled or even declined. Democrats accuse Republicans of blocking any agreement by refusing the principle of tax increases. For their part, Republicans reject the approach proposed by Barack Obama on an ambitious four trillion dollars in savings over ten years.They are rather a compromise of around 2 trillion, thinking to keep their campaign promise to block any tax increase.

To complicate matters, the elected Democrats have their doubts about the path traced by the White House. Barack Obama asks them, in fact, painful concessions in the form of savings in programs popular pension and health care. Yet the Democrats do not want to pay the price in the November 2012 legislative concessions that make a great historical compromise personal serving the cause of Barack Obama but not his party.In addition, the recent rise in unemployment leads them to reconsider their promise to reduce government spending made a few weeks ago as part of negotiations led by the then vice president, Joe Biden.

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At a time when competition in the market for online savings, Cortal Consors wants to restore the voice. The BNP Paribas subsidiary specialized in savings and online brokerage has launched an image campaign, which aims to strengthen its reputation. She recalls in particular that it was behind several innovations on the savings market, including the marketing of all mutual funds. The property line puts the means of communication with a budget increase of 30%. "In recent years we have invested less than our competitors," admits Gommard Benedict, CEO of the brand which claims 530,000 customers and hopes to reach 25,000 to 40,000 per year.

Through this campaign, Cortal Consors stands out from most of its direct competitors (BforBank, ING Direct, Fortuneo …) focusing on the custom board heritage.And by offering a savings account paying 3.25% for one year (2.23% net), while the majority of promotions for new customers rising to 4% or 6% gross for three months. The online bank hopes in this way retain investors increasingly fickle, quick to hunt for bargains.

Customers rather rich

Especially since the savings market is fought. Online banks, which have made their product booklets of conquest (according to a survey Credoc Monabanq, 56% of their clients have at least one) must now cope with the onslaught of traditional banks. "We have more difficulty in asserting our difference," says Andre Coisne, CEO BforBank, a subsidiary of Credit Agricole.

Involved? The new prudential rules (known as Basel 3) requiring that in future banks have more capital and assets easily accessible, thus more "liquid". Result, they direct more savings to their customers bank books and other deposit account. During the first 4 months of the year, the booklets were not controlled and drained about 10 billion euros in savings.

To remain competitive, banks multiply the distance marketing innovations (promotional rates reserved for first customers …). They want so optimistic. Especially since, according to the study of Credoc, "nearly 31% of customers would consider it as their main bank." Customers even more interesting because they are financially above the average rather rich, young, Parisian and graduates.They also hold more financial products than the average …

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