• Why raising the ceiling of the U.S. debt is it so urgent?

The race against Barack Obama committed by a deadline, a week today. Established by Congress to 14.294 billion dollars, the upper limit of U.S. debt has been reached in mid-May and, according to its own calculations, the Treasury will no longer meet its obligations vis-à-vis its creditors on Aug. 2. It will no longer pay its bills or not the officials. And two days later, on August 4, it must be replaced for 87 billion of bonds maturing.

• What would happen in the absence of agreement?

The United States currently receive the highest rating (triple A) to the three major rating agencies, allowing them to borrow at market interest rates particularly advantageous. They would automatically degraded.Standard & Poor's and Moody's warned them in July: the risk of default will result in a sanction. The interest charged by investors to lend to the United States would go up instantly. The Democrats do not hesitate to the argument.

China, the first holder of U.S. Treasuries with 1.16 trillion dollars in May, also has a strong appeal for Washington to protect its interests. "We hope the U.S. government will take concrete measures to build confidence in international financial markets," said Chinese foreign exchange administration.

Deterioration of the debt of the United States when Europe is in turmoil, subject to the constant pressure of these rating agencies, would inevitably have consequences on chain U.S. and international financial institutions, which must be able to pledge AAA-rated assets to get themselves ready. The credibility of the country abroad would be tainted, as well as the presidency of Barack Obama. All this would jeopardize U.S. economic activity – and, by implication, the world. Already, the earthquake in Japan penalizes industry, unemployment remains high and the Conference Board provides a "slow growth". A default could dramatically worsen things.

• What is blocking the negotiations?

Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel arrived in the morning Thursday in Brussels after a marathon negotiation began in Berlin late Thursday afternoon and was to end in the Belgian capital in the evening. Wednesday evening between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, an agreement was set with the EU Presidency of Herman Von Rumpoy was then allowed to leak the outline in the morning, causing a positive market.

"Stock markets have been reassured by the existence of an agreement between Berlin, Paris and the ECB," says a close friend of Nicolas Sarkozy. The working meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel – "seven hours without interruption," according to the entourage of the head of state – was not enough to win the unconditional adherence of the fifteen other members of the euro area. "Many arrived without having in mind the highly technical aspects of this case. It took a lot to explain.Everyone wanted to be sure you understand the mechanisms involved, "said a relative of the head of state. Despite negotiating a lot longer than expected, counselors diplomatic head of state felt to hold the right end on Thursday night. "This agreement is a strong political message, for two reasons: it reaffirms the determination of the euro area does not drop Greece, and overhaul the European Stabilisation Fund, giving an additional area of ​​intervention" , we summarized in the entourage of the Head of State, on the sidelines of the meeting.

Over economic governance

Forced to stay away from microphones and cameras so as not to upset her "friend Angela," Nicolas Sarkozy has continued to play the conciliator between the requirements of the European Central Bank and those of Berlin, a role of "critical" that greeted elsewhere Yesterday a French banker."Angela is always careful not to get caught up too far," says Nicolas Sarkozy often. "It is more tactician, it is more a strategist," said one of his advisers. Strategist, the head of state to be tried since the beginning of the second Greek crisis, reaffirming the need for a strong political gesture in favor of a higher degree of integration of European economic policies. "This is the landing point from the beginning," says a consultant. If Angela Merkel wants to put Europe at the German time, imposing fiscal discipline, Nicolas Sarkozy intends to Chancellor at the time French, into accepting more economic governance. Seen from Paris, the summit held Thursday crossed then a further step towards integration and convergence of European economies."For several months, France blew up the clause of the Lisbon Treaty, which prohibited the bailout of a failed state. This allowed us to intervene in Greece, Portugal, Ireland. She obtained the creation of a European background stabilization, and modification of the Stability Pact, adding a preventive and a macro component. Without this component, Ireland could not have been brought to heel. Finally, we pushed for the creation of a pact for the euro convergence and competitiveness, "says a close adviser to the president to measure progress. "All this was unimaginable a year ago," he says.

Barack Obama sought Monday to change the tone of the negotiations on reducing the budget deficit. "I am ready to face criticism from Democrats for an agreement that allows to raise the debt ceiling," said Monday the president of the United States, before resuming discussions with congressional leaders have fallen into the impasse. "We will reach agreement before August 2," promised the president at a press conference.

Placing himself as an arbiter between the two factions partisan, Barack Obama said: "The Republicans are going to have to compromise, as the Democrats." He hoped that the negotiations continue "all day", "until a solution is found."

Their challenge is twofold. The first is to adopt a compromise that reduces the medium to long-term U.S. budget deficits.But the compromise also depends on the adoption by August 2 of a law that raises the ceiling for the debt of the United States. Otherwise, the U.S. Treasury would no longer issue the bonds needed to honor the debts of Uncle Sam was general such a defect of the United States would have catastrophic consequences for the entire global economy.

Avoiding tax increases

During the weekend negotiations have stalled or even declined. Democrats accuse Republicans of blocking any agreement by refusing the principle of tax increases. For their part, Republicans reject the approach proposed by Barack Obama on an ambitious four trillion dollars in savings over ten years.They are rather a compromise of around 2 trillion, thinking to keep their campaign promise to block any tax increase.

To complicate matters, the elected Democrats have their doubts about the path traced by the White House. Barack Obama asks them, in fact, painful concessions in the form of savings in programs popular pension and health care. Yet the Democrats do not want to pay the price in the November 2012 legislative concessions that make a great historical compromise personal serving the cause of Barack Obama but not his party.In addition, the recent rise in unemployment leads them to reconsider their promise to reduce government spending made a few weeks ago as part of negotiations led by the then vice president, Joe Biden.

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At a time when competition in the market for online savings, Cortal Consors wants to restore the voice. The BNP Paribas subsidiary specialized in savings and online brokerage has launched an image campaign, which aims to strengthen its reputation. She recalls in particular that it was behind several innovations on the savings market, including the marketing of all mutual funds. The property line puts the means of communication with a budget increase of 30%. "In recent years we have invested less than our competitors," admits Gommard Benedict, CEO of the brand which claims 530,000 customers and hopes to reach 25,000 to 40,000 per year.

Through this campaign, Cortal Consors stands out from most of its direct competitors (BforBank, ING Direct, Fortuneo …) focusing on the custom board heritage.And by offering a savings account paying 3.25% for one year (2.23% net), while the majority of promotions for new customers rising to 4% or 6% gross for three months. The online bank hopes in this way retain investors increasingly fickle, quick to hunt for bargains.

Customers rather rich

Especially since the savings market is fought. Online banks, which have made their product booklets of conquest (according to a survey Credoc Monabanq, 56% of their clients have at least one) must now cope with the onslaught of traditional banks. "We have more difficulty in asserting our difference," says Andre Coisne, CEO BforBank, a subsidiary of Credit Agricole.

Involved? The new prudential rules (known as Basel 3) requiring that in future banks have more capital and assets easily accessible, thus more "liquid". Result, they direct more savings to their customers bank books and other deposit account. During the first 4 months of the year, the booklets were not controlled and drained about 10 billion euros in savings.

To remain competitive, banks multiply the distance marketing innovations (promotional rates reserved for first customers …). They want so optimistic. Especially since, according to the study of Credoc, "nearly 31% of customers would consider it as their main bank." Customers even more interesting because they are financially above the average rather rich, young, Parisian and graduates.They also hold more financial products than the average …

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Wolfgang Schäuble confirmed and signed. At the risk of alienating France and the ECB, the German Finance Minister said yesterday that "the time has come" to pay to banks and private investors holding the bag in the crisis of sovereign debt. "It's a question of moral responsibility, said the German official. Ultimately, investors – and that includes of course the European bond holders – must support both the risks and the benefits of their investment. In recent crises, it is almost exclusively the taxpayers who have borne the loss. This is unacceptable! "

The offensive seeks to convince partners of Germany, when the bloc about to lock a permanent mechanism for rescue of troubled countries. Joined the menu of the June EU summit, the European Stability Mechanism (SPM) should enter into operation in 2013.But in the midst of controversy over a possible debt forgiveness in favor of Athens, Wolfgang Schäuble furbishes also the weapons of those who argue that the creditor banks should immediately take their share of the burden.

Market Discipline

The replica of the European Central Bank did not take long. The chief economist Juergen Stark has denounced as a "catastrophe" scenario of a debt restructuring Greek. It would cause, he said, "collapse" of the economy and banking system in the country. Across the eurozone, it would complicate the use of borrowing for other troubled countries. It would kill the plans in the bud "adjustment" set up for Ireland and Portugal. For Vice-President of the ECB's Vitor Constancio, "The debt restructuring should remain what it is, a final and last resort."

France, she is sticking to its position."It is beyond question, be it restructuring, rescheduling or debt reprofiling, Tuesday assured Christine Lagarde. The only issue at stake is the determination of Greece to implement the program, "austerity negotiated with the EU, the IMF and the ECB.

Expected at the forum yesterday in Brussels, the French minister was canceled. We need more to convince markets that the succession process rigor imposed on Greece, Ireland and Portugal may succeed.

"The political risk of alienating voters'

Deutsche Bank expects a debt forgiveness of 50% to allow Greece to start on a sound footing. "Nobody can argue that Europe now has a satisfactory system rescue, said its chief economist Thomas Mayer.Banks should, too, suffer the discipline of the market and fail if necessary "under the weight of bad loans.

Wolfgang Schäuble added to demonstrate a political argument to deflect the rise of populism. "To constantly refloat private investors, policy makers may simply alienate European voters. It's not for nothing that the EU institutions are perceived as distant, technocratic and locked in a world of impenetrable jargon and insider trading. "To constantly refloat private investors, policymakers may s alienate voters in Europe … "

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The alleged sexual assault case that led to the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn is also a blow to the institution he heads the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "It will inevitably tarnish the image of the institution, which, however, by the voice of its director general had managed during and through the crisis, to find a proper place in the regulation of globalization and stand at the heart of international monetary system, "said Hassim Mounis, professor at Sciences Politiques in Paris.

"Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a Managing Director of IMF that will be remembered most," says the economist. "It will mark the spirits because he has temporarily disrupted the guidance of the IMF's role by requiring the state to support the economy, which is in total contradiction with the previous liberal policy of the institution," said it.DSK is known to have handled the economic crisis and financial crisis by bringing a Keynesian response … measured, however: in the emblematic case of Greece, the IMF forced the government to drastically reduce public spending and operate a process of privatization.

Greece precisely, it ensures that the events that challenge the IMF does not change the government program to revive the economy. "The government is pursuing reforms resquises by the Fund," said George Petalotis Sunday, his spokesman. DSK would have had to go in Berlin on Sunday and meet Angela Merkel to discuss a possible new aid to Greece, who won the spring of 2010, with 110 billion euros, 30 billion from the IMF.This meeting was to take place on the eve of the convening of a Eurogroup these Monday night and Tuesday in Brussels, with the main discussions at the agenda of the financial problems that resurface Greece for several days and that plague markets . A spokesman of the Eurogroup, however, that the IMF will be shown no matter what happens.

The IMF meanwhile assured that it remains "fully functional and operational low fee payday advance." The Washington-based institution to ensure and maintain its role in the issue of European sovereign debt. "It seems impossible that the case could impact the DSK button timing and responsablités IMF, the stakes are too great," says an economist based in Paris.There was a pre-DSK IMF, there may be an after-DSK.

Who might succeed him at the IMF?

Since Bretton Woods in 1944, which devoted a share of the world between Europe and America, the custom was established to appoint a European to head the IMF and an American to head the Bank World. But in recent years, global economic governance has, too, internationalized: emerging countries like China and Brazil now have a bigger role, like the G7 became the G8 and G20.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who became the tenth Executive Director of the IMF on 1 November 2007, has himself advocated the continuation of the reform of the institution, and wanted a person from a country emerging for the successor to head the IMF . But the events that shook the Fund could also shake up the program.If DSK had to leave the branch, a new early election should take place. The voices, weighted by the amount of quotas, have been reallocated on March 3 after a major reform of the representation of the 187 IMF member countries. The reform has enabled the transfer of 6% of the votes of over-represented countries to benefit from emerging countries.

"DSK is a former economics professor and renowned former Minister of Economy and Finance. He has a real economic role at the operational level to the IMF. In France, too, has played its role, "insists Mounis Hassim, comparing his skills to those of Raymond Barre. Under Jospin, DSK, then Minister of Economy (1997-1999), had participated in the launch of the euro.

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The IMF considers the debt of Greece "sustainable"

The markets took fright on Friday night after a new European cacophony. Greece had threatened to leave the euro in discussions with the European Commission, reports the website of German magazine Der Spiegel quoted a government source in Berlin. The major European capitals have refuted this information.

"These items are a challenge, undermine the effort of Greece and the euro and serve speculative games," said the Greek finance ministry said in a statement. "The assumption of an outflow of Greece to the euro area is completely fanciful", has also assured Bercy.

Despite denials by the French, German and Greek, the single currency accelerated its decline against the dollar. Friday night shortly before 22:30, the euro lost nearly 1.4% to 1.4338 dollar. Rumor sign a new stage, and this information is disturbing.It is not surprising that the euro will weaken, "said one analyst at a U.S. bank. At the same time, the cost of insurance against a collapse of the Greek debt ("Credit default swaps, or CDS) jumped from 74 basis points to a record 1,370 basis points, according to Markit.

Meeting in Luxembourg

An emergency meeting was held between some finance ministers from the eurozone. The president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, has denied that a meeting devoted exclusively to Greece took place. Still, according to Reuters, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and his Minister Jörg Assmussen are in Luxembourg for a meeting. These discussions would focus on topics such as Portugal, Greece or the succession to the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), but "nothing more," said a source in the euro area to the agency Press.

Contradictory statements agitate the euro area in recent weeks about a possible debt restructuring Greek. Lars Feld, one of economic advisers to Angela Merkel, considered by example on Sunday that the restructuring is "the only way forward so that Greece is a little relieved that creditors and help to solve the Greek problem." The ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, for his part flatly denied Thursday that event.

Keeping promises cons of VAT at 5.5%. Two years after signing a first contract between the restaurant and the government, and a mixed picture, professionals have made new commitments for the next four years.

Unsurprisingly, efforts will focus on employment. At the meeting held Thursday with the government, restaurateurs have promised to create 20,000 jobs annually by July 2015, or 80,000 jobs. They also pledged to improve learning and increase their investment of 25% to bring it to 5 billion euros in four years. Objectives labeled as "ambitious" by the Secretary of State for Consumer Affairs, Frederic Lefebvre, yet precarious.Conservators have warned the Government that a return to the VAT increase beyond 5.5% would free them of these obligations.

Consumers should not expect however to reap the benefits of lower taxation credit reports free. Conservators have preferred to remain cautious on this point for fear of receiving new criticism. Last year, the Court of Auditors had indeed criticized the lack of repercussions on the tax benefit customers. According to his calculations the dividend would have been only 2.15% instead of the 3% expected.

On Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has decided against another reduced rate of VAT. In his report on France, "the application of standard VAT rates to expenditures for maintenance and renovation" for housing, ie 19.6% and not 5.5% as at present.

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At the critical moment of crossover holiday in February, about 30,000 passengers were affected by an act of vandalism on a line in the Alps, the SNCF said. "A malicious act has been committed so far (…) near Albertville. Cables were severed with a saw, seriously disrupting traffic in the Tarentaise valley, "SNCF said in a statement.

The railway line was repaired vandalized at 18h, allowing trains stuck between Bourg-Saint-Maurice Chambery and recovering gradually, said the station and the prefecture of Savoy. "The trains leave the circulation is restored," said the chief of staff of the Prefect of Savoy, Xavier Idier.Shortly before 19h, no more train was stuck in the Tarentaise valley, but 400 to 500 passengers were still in the station of Albertville, 400 to 500 in one of Moutiers, and from 1000 to 1500 passengers waiting to leave Bourg-Saint Maurice. "The incident is closed," confirmed a spokeswoman for regional station, explains that the movement was "slowly" resumed.

"Sabotage"

"Being a weekend announced long as particularly responsible, SNCF deplores and strongly condemns this new act of malice, which resembles a form of sabotage."A term by the Minister of Transport Thierry Mariani: "If it turns out to sabotage it, I hope that justice will be exemplary rigor, because tens of thousands of passengers, dozens of thousands of families will undergo five hours, six hours, seven hours late because of some thugs, "he said.

"An investigation is underway," said SNCF. "Three cables, signal and power were cut" in the morning on-line Chambery Bourg-Saint-Maurice, extremely busy this time of return and departure on vacation, said a spokeswoman for the Regional SNCF. In early afternoon, repairs were still ongoing. The return to normalcy is not expected until the evening.

A period of very heavy traffic

"Until 13:30, twenty trains were affected.The problem is that we are in times of high traffic, "she said. Delays of between three and five hours are expected. The incident occurred in full crossover vacationers and skiers of different areas of school holidays.

"My TER was to leave at 11 am from Bourg-Saint-Maurice left with thirty minutes late. The train was then locked one hour, "says an AFP journalist stuck in a train to Lyon, with no information on the time that his train will arrive. "The TER is full. All vacationers who are descended from Tignes and other stations are mounted in Bourg-Saint-Maurice. There are plenty of people who will miss their connecting flight to Paris or Toulon …», he concludes philosophically.

SNCF evokes an act of vandalism, not theft.Society is increasingly faced with flight cables, particularly copper, which have doubled with the soaring prices, causing delays for trains. In September 2010, SNCF counted forty flights per week cable and assessed his damages at several million euros.

More information about delays here.

(With AFP)

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It is time for calm in Italy. The automaker Fiat has confirmed that Saturday's willingness to invest 20 billion euros into the country, the government said in a statement following a meeting between the president and managing director of Fiat, John Elkann and Sergio Marchionne , and Silvio Berlusconi.

Fiat has "confirmed the government's intention to pursue development objectives of the group, which forecast an increase of production in this country of 650,000 to 1.4 million cars a year, a goal supported by an investment of about $ 20 billion euros, "the statement said.The government was ready for its part, to help Fiat to develop in "the best conditions for competitiveness."

The meeting, also attended the Italian ministers of Economy and Industry, and officials of the Piedmont where the headquarters of the manufacturer, was intended to calm the anxiety provoked by the statements of the Sergio Marchionne about a possible tie-Chrysler Fiat. "Fiat and Chrysler? In the next two or three years we can see a single entity. It could be based here in the U.S., "he had launched in last weekend during a visit to San Francisco.

Headquarters, the debate could resurface in 2014

Fiat now owns 25% stake in Chrysler and the two partners hope to produce 6 million vehicles in 2014, against less than 4 million now installment payday loans.The possibility of a merger had already been considered. But the evocation of a head office based in the United States has created a chill in Italy, forcing the CEO of the manufacturer to return immediately to his remarks. By phone, he assured the Minister Maurizio Sacconi of Labor that no transfer of headquarters was expected "either today or tomorrow." He reiterated that the hypotheses only referred to "possible future scenarios."

To dispel any misunderstanding, the Fiat management has, however, of clarifying strategies with government and local authorities on Saturday. "All the controversies are now closed," then found Paolo Romani, the Minister of Industry. "Fiat is a big multinational that grows in the world but still with a heart of Italy." The mayor of Turin Sergio Chiamparino, was more cautious.He said Fiat had confirmed its "Italian character" but "in a changing dynamic that requires daily work to ensure that this does not change." In fact, as the president of the province of Turin, Antonio Saitta, the conditions that the city remains the headquarters of the group "will be discussed in 2014."

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