"This is our operation this year." Michel Bouvard, MP (UMP) who chairs the supervisory board of Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC), sets the tone: the entry of public institution with a capital of La Poste is in itself that the Fund invests typically one year. The frame is fixed by law: The Post will benefit from a capital increase of 2.7 billion euros, 1.2 billion provided by the state, and 1.5 billion from the Fund. Must still agree on the value of the Post Office to determine what will be the level of participation of the CDC in its capital.
Twice a week since the beginning of the month, teams from the Fund – backed by Lazard and Morgan Stanley, helping Gimar Finance Supervisory Commission – and those of the Agency for State Holdings (advised by HSBC), compare analysis.Condemned, by law, to agree, the two pockets of the state does not want to go to war. No way to dwell on a range of recovery – a "fork" as an actor in the negotiations – which, however, reveals a gap of one to five.
The Post valued at 1.8 billion euros
Reportedly, in fact, the "buyer" – CDC – valued at this stage, the post office to 1.8 billion euros, including debt, when the "seller", the State, shows 9.5 billion. The discussion, in fact, is to converge to a value of The Post to be that of its own funds (4.1 billion euros at end 2009).The work involved with the management of La Poste – CEO Jean-Paul Bailly plate before the Investment Committee of the Board of Trustees of the Fund on June 23 – and the EPA have already been able to fill a (small) part of gap.
Concordant sources, Bercy proposes to extend the revenue projections and results of the public company beyond 2015, the end of the current strategic plan, focusing on the extension of subsidies for the distribution of the press, Accessibility bank or land use. This involves taking a very long-term bet, even though projections for five years been based on optimistic assumptions, as stated by the Court of Auditors paydayloans.
For example, the public company anticipates a replacement for four retirements, two times less than in 2009.It sits on a decrease of 30% "only" the volume of business mail by 2015, when erosion caused by traditional Internet this activity has accelerated with the crisis.
"Prudent investor"
The financial trajectory, finally, projects a growth of 5 to 6% of revenues the Postal Bank in the period, based on a scenario of "macro" rather rosy, particularly in terms of changes in interest rates. She bet – she is not alone – a tightening of prudential regulations on international (Basel 3) which would cost only 500 million of equity to its subsidiary … These are all the more crucial that La Banque Postale represents alone worth more than 8 billion euros.On it depends on price which its parent.
To justify the target value, the arguments must be strong: the CDC should behave "prudent investor, in strict compliance with its property interests." Especially, the recapitalization not be considered state aid by Brussels. During the presentation of the report of the supervisory committee, Michel Bouvard reiterated the goal: the investment must provide a perspective of profitability similar to the average of the other assets of CDC. "We want to secure our investment in case of degraded scenario," he says.
The Fund negotiates as a shareholder pact that would endorse the joint control with the State on the public company, it takes 25 or 35% of the capital. "The state is more favorable to have the CDC in a strong position as shareholder," says one close to the matter.The Fund would have four directors, an involvement in appointing the CEO, and a veto not only on large investments, but also the most common big decisions, like budget.