The government, which this Tuesday the draft budget law for 2012, based his entire equation on a growth forecast of 1.75% for next year-until last August, he hoped it would reach 2.25 %. Despite the turbulence of increasingly stringent in Europe, Bercy firmly believes this new hypothesis.

Recently the Minister of Economy Baroin claimed to have "serious reasons to consider it achievable," while his colleague Valerie Pécresse Budget also reaffirmed Sunday that the government's projections were "conservative and realistic."

Yet, scenarios and expert succession, one after the other, come to doubt the probability of the hypothesis-government.Monday is the Institute of COE-Rexecode conditions that drive the point home: it provides a GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011 and 1.2% in 2012-exactly the consensus of economists. Or acceleration or slowdown: after the air hole last spring, COE-Rexecode see activity continue on a pace soft below the trend between 2001 and 2007.

Monitor the distribution of credit

"We do not retain perspective as the most likely scenario that the recessive stock markets seem to play for Europe," says Institute (close to employers), chaired by Michel Didier.But further, he warns, watch in the coming months "the impact on the lending of a possible increase in the cost of bank refinancing and even more difficult access to liquidity," and that "the downward revision of investment programs that entrepreneurs may have to perform under extra care" against the current deterioration of the environment.

COE-Rexecode also cautions that its expectations are based on "the assumption that the interventions of the ECB and the introduction of means of the European Financial Stability manage to break the downward spiral of financial markets and to avoid the contagion of Other States in the euro area and the banking system. "

In this context, reduction of public deficits "is a priority," but "to limit the short-term impact on growth and raise potential growth, cost savings are preferable to increase the tax burden," insists the Institute. Issue of competitiveness.

LE FIGARO. – Are you satisfied with the performance of Pernod-Ricard during the exercise?

Pierre PRINGUET. – Congratulations to the teams of Pernod Ricard. The group has an excellent performance, with both a strong acceleration of growth of our business and our operating profits. For the first time ever, our net income exceeds one billion euros. These figures show the relevance of our premiumisation strategy and innovation. Our high-end bottles account for 71% of our sales, against 69% last year. Our new products (Wild Tea Absolut, Malibu cocktails …) our limited series and our innovations in advertising and packaging met with success.With a new bottle of Ricard sales increased 5% in France, a market of aniseed stable.

You get ready for a worsening economic environment?

No, I fear neither slowing growth in emerging countries or return to recession in mature markets. The world faces a problem of public debt, with a unique in Greece, the country most fragile. But the political dimension is at least as important as the economic dimension. Everyone was betting on an acceleration of growth in mature markets: the targets are scaled down, but countries will experience low growth in 2011 (1.5 to 2%). And there is no reason for the dynamic growth of emerging countries is slowing. For 2012, the objectives are still serene. IMF sees faster U.S. next year. You can always play to be afraid.But the psychodrama of the summer on the state of the banking system has nothing to do with the situation of 2008 and the general crisis of debt at the time. It is a political problem, but not macro-financial.

There will be no effect on the growth of your business during the current year?

We expect continued moderate growth in mature markets for the fiscal year beginning in July (1.5% last year) and continued strong growth in emerging countries (17% last year) . These will drive our growth: built on solid economic fundamentals, these markets are naturally attracted to our premium brands.

The tension in the markets makes it more difficult to manage your debt?

For our bank debt, we have no due before July 2013.We have an active management of our debt, with two bond issues last year to EUR 1 billion and $ 1 billion respectively. Interest rates remain particularly low, we will seize every opportunity to issue bonds. We will continue our debt reduction, with the aim of achieving 30 June in a net debt / EBITDA of close to 4.

You will be able to resume your acquisition policy …

Does not expect to purchase several billion on 1 July. In the meantime, we will conduct no strategic acquisitions. However, we can make tactical acquisitions, such as tequila Avion in July. It is both a start-up and a brand ultrapremium, sold between 40 and 60 euros a bottle, which allows us to expand our portfolio in the United States.This is the type of operation we will focus in the immediate future. Acquisitions of Brazilian cachaça or baijiu Chinese are possible options. In our business, this is not the type of product that counts, but the brand. Pernod Ricard could also create one from scratch. This is one of the objectives of our internal team called BIG (Breakthrough Innovation Group), whose current head of our German subsidiary, Alain Dufossé, just take the lead.

This summer, Patrick Ricard, non-executive chairman of Pernod Ricard, said at that point the group should aim for first place in the spirits market. What is your strategy to achieve this?

This is the purpose of our project Agility. The goal is not size for size, but the growth momentum. Our sales have grown faster than our competitor's last year. We must repeat that performance this year.We take the market, we are the most innovative, we are well placed to achieve this.

Alexandre Ricard was promoted a few weeks ago. It is well positioned to succeed you …

Two things are certain. One is Alexandre Ricard has an excellent track. That's why I named Executive Vice President in charge of distribution networks. The second is that I leave my post January 31, 2015, when I turn 65, according to the statutes of Pernod Ricard.

The CAC 40 is risky there twice this month. He was immediately returned. The threshold of 3000 points, as seen on the Paris market was down on Thursday 11 and Friday, August 19. On Monday morning, the Paris index recurred, opening down 0.85% to 2989.60 points. But again, it started to rise immediately after slipping below 3000, and closed on Monday evening at 3051.36 points (1.14%), having flown over 3100 points During the session this afternoon.

The level of 3000 points may well not be a technical threshold (it does not automatically trigger a sell order or purchase), it still plays a role of "support" on which the market arises before rebounding .Daniel Gravier, Head of Sales Trading at XTB France, believes that "this psychological level is transcribed in the courts and thus returns to a technical threshold."

The cross downward psychological sounded an alarm in markets which do not have a habit of getting carried away by their feelings. Professional traders define their purpose of orders passages through complex mathematical calculations, generated by high-powered software that constantly scan the share price indices, securities, commodities and all that is listed in order to predict the best time to invest or sell. And to build the software, the banks are recruiting the cream of engineers. But in this world of numbers, there is also a psychological dimension.So, see the CAC 40 fell below 3,000 points spurred the market to recover.

"This is a symbolic level, for its part says Harry Sebag, an analyst at Saxo Bank. In times of great nervousness, while visibility is poor, investors cling to benchmarks in the short term instant credit report. It's an excuse to reposition itself for purchase. This morning, we felt that the markets began to rebound because the shares had suffered a significant discount. " And hope for regime change in Libya was a good news for oil companies operating in the country, making a breath of excitement to the Paris Bourse.

"Safeguards" but also to accelerate the panic

"These thresholds are safeguards on which the market rebounds," says Harry Sebag. But the psychological effects of contracts may jégalement ouer a role accelerator panic attacks.The violent stalls indices observed recently on global stock markets have shown. In Paris the CAC 40 fell by 32.4% since July 1, affected by short-term concerns (the debt crisis in the euro zone, bad macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. and deteriorating debt rating for American Standard & Poor's), but not only. "In late July, the market downturn downward was rational, said Jean-Louis Mourier, an analyst at Aurel BCG. However, the extent of movement and the high volatility experienced by markets in recent days show an overreaction. "

The index in Paris he could sink even lower? The scenario is possible if the disappointing macroeconomic indicators continue to grow and corporate earnings in the third quarter does not reassure investors, said Harry Sebag.Saxo Bank analyst would watch while the threshold indicated by the software, around 2850 points or even 2500 points. "But I hope we will not get to that," he adds.

The advertising slogan 'type' Baidu ', and you will know "has been transformed by the Internet in China' type 'Baidu' and you spend money." China Central Television has attacked the advertising practices of the search engine in a program aired earlier this week on the economic chain CCTV2. The show has accused Baidu, which accounts for nearly ¾ of the market for Internet search in the country, selling fake tickets, which have been losing money for users.

"Baidu is clearly not able to solve this problem by demonstrating self-discipline. The primary motivation of this company is to make profits, "said Wu Yue, the presenter of the program. "If there is no law or regulation in place to limit this, it is difficult to improve the situation at the base," she said.

Questionable advertising practices

This is not the first time that the official media attack the Chinese firm. State television has already Baidu suspected to force the big companies who wanted to appear at the top of the sponsored links when searching on the Internet, to pay large sums of money daily. However, this new attack is much more powerful, because it affects the credibility of the brand name Baidu. People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, he also criticized the company in an editorial, arguing that the search engine could be abandoned by users if it focuses only on its short-term profits. "It's time for Baidu to shoulder social responsibility," says the editorial quick payday loans.

Caught in a wave of criticism, Baidu had formally apologized at a news conference Friday.Wang Zheng, vice president of sales for the company apologized to the "users victims of fraudulent information," adding that the company will strive to better filter the information that is illegal.

One way to take control of the Internet?

The scandal coincides with the launch of the CCTV's own search engine and auction of its annual advertising screens, which has led some observers to think that this is a way for the giant Chinese television discredit a formidable competitor.

In addition, the role of Communist propaganda is important for the media in Beijing, and the campaign against Baidu could be a prelude to the implementation of measures designed to "rectify" the politically lcorrect Internet, somewhat chaotic.In recent years, the Chinese government has more and more difficult to control what is said by the Chinese blogs.

"The main players in the Chinese Internet, like Sina, Youku, Tencent and Alibaba, should consider whether the target of the campaign of CCTV, is Baidu," said Bill Bishop in his blog, an investor based in Beijing. "There may be other firms involved", he says it.

The company Baidu is one of the largest global Internet values, with a capitalization of $ 48 billion (33.6 billion euros). Its shares have lost more than 14% from Monday to Thursday on the Nasdaq, the index dominated by technology of the New York Stock Exchange.

Friday night, two days after intervening in Parliament without presenting concrete and after two weeks of falling markets, Silvio Berlusconi announced a drastic revision of budget targets. He was accompanied by his Minister of Economy, Giulio Tremonti: both showed a facade of unity after publicly bickered on the eve of the ECB's role in the crisis, which had a bad effect.

The new roadmap is binding. Parliament will be asked to register immediately the "golden rule" which prohibits any deficit in the Constitution. The balance of public accounts will advance to 2013 instead of 2014, deadline too far in the eyes of the markets. This means emerge from 7-8000000000 new resources in the form of budget cuts and reductions in structural costs.In this context, the Minister of Administration, Renato Brunetta, estimates that the deficit target to 1.5% of GDP next year and 0.2% at end 2013 is achievable. The government is also considering a new Labour Code introduced more flexibility in wage bargaining, tax reform, growth-oriented and cuts in government spending. It remains to translate these intentions into decrees by the Cabinet, so that Parliament can approve the final quarter of 2011.

Historically high rates

The pressure has paid off. Brussels and the ECB have joined forces this weekend to make the government realize that the time for procrastination was over. Rates have exceeded 400 basis points with the German Bunds, a historically high level. Italy has urged the ECB to acquire Italian government securities on the secondary market.Frankfurt on Sunday night welcomed the efforts of the country. The German Government considers that it is first in Italy to prove the seriousness of his reforms.

A crucial week therefore expects the peninsula. The social partners will be informed of the contents of the measures of fiscal austerity plan Wednesday. On Thursday, the budget committees and Constitutional Affairs will shorten their vacation to hear Giulio Tremonti.

Lefigaro.fr – Since his triple gold medal at the European Championships in Budapest in 2010, Camille Lacourt has increased its advertising contracts. How does the commercial success he started?

Jean-François-Salessy After his success in Budapest in August 2010, Camille has indeed come to me with Fabien Gilot Ménart and William, all three members of the Swimming Club of Marseilles, so we work together. In less than 24 hours in September 2010, and even if I was going to take a year off, it was decided. Camille's situation was a bit special because it suddenly goes from darkness to light, and was approached by many brands, especially in the beauty and cosmetics.We are closer to Clarins and their way of approaching things convinced us to work with them, rather than with other brands, less respectful of the requirements for driving a top athlete. The first six-year contract (to 200,000 euros per year, ie), indexed on the results of Camille and with a conversion clause, was based on what competitors offered. It was a beautiful first contract. We have also partnered with the OEM Tyre, which is unusual since Camille involved in the development and technical improvement of products it uses. He is also interested in the sale of these products, between 10 and 15% of sales according to the ranges.

French swimmers are they becoming future footballers?

I do not believe, and I do not want to turn into Camille Lacourt Christmas tree.We will announce in September a new partnership with a ready-to-wear, but it should be the last. He is now fine partnerships should not be wasted by "selling" in all directions. When talking about total earnings of Camille Lacourt (estimated this year to 700,000 euros ed), we forget that it is barely a month's salary football star. On the other hand, it is undeniable that the French swimming much more interested in brands and sponsors that there are six or seven years. I think Camille can say thank you to Laure Manaudou, who opened a gap, taking the very strong public support. It is no secret: it has made this popular sport, which attracted the public, media and sponsors. Today these brands look like a real sport discipline of competition, with major events and boys and girls out of the ordinary …who is a potential advertising. In a few months, these boys and girls who emerge may tell themselves, thank you to Camille Lacourt!

Jeremy just Stravius, who also athletic Tuesday, he may steal the show with brands?

It is a bit simplistic to look at it that way. Each swimmer to his personality. Camille Lacourt someone is authentic, casual and simple, has a rather glamorous image. This is not a scoop. But by winning yesterday with Jeremy Stravius ​​his world title in 100 meter backstroke, he also confirmed that he had not physically beautiful, he had another dimension. Which was very important to us because being European champion was not enough.If that fails, many would have indeed been delighted to say that he had lost in the advertising contracts and partnerships! The next objective is to confirm the sporting dimension to the London Olympics in 2012 (which would also provide the swimmer performance related bonuses as part of its contracts with Clarins and Tyre, ed.) For his part, Jeremy Stravius ​​has the best performance of his career. I am not his agent but I think its position corresponds to a different segment than Camille. His image more reassuring, more associated with strength, may be of interest to companies in the energy sector, banking or insurance. Like Alain Bernard for example, and partnerships with EDF Assurances or April.

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Little relief on the side of Greece in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the Greek Parliament gave its confidence in the socialist government revised last week – 155 votes for and 143 against (or all members present of the Opposition). Prime Minister George Papandreou will be able to set up a new austerity plan, prerequisite to release a new loan tranche of 12 billion euros, which is vital for the country.

The Prime Minister asked the members' confidence to continue to deal with the crisis and the deficit, avoid bankruptcy and ensure the maintenance of Greece in the core of the euro "was heard.The statesman had also explained that the government is committed to "putting all his strength to overcome the crisis (…) there is a perspective, a path set, we have the support and assistance of the international community and the European Union with a loan mammoth. "

This vote was also welcomed by the President of the European Commission. José Manuel Barroso said that "the vote tonight in the Greek Parliament removes an element of uncertainty into an already very difficult. This is good news for Greece and the European Union as a whole. "

For its part, the new finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, has committed to go beyond the requirements of the European Union and International Monetary Fund, to address his country.He said Athens' needs a parallel restructuring plan "that is consistent with the objectives set by the troika, but also to enable" better on the budget, growth and social justice. "

But before that Greece must vote before June 30, the austerity plan that provides savings of 28.4 billion and 50 billion privatization until 2015. Has yet to convince the public. In fact, the call of "outraged" Greek camp to parliament, several thousand protesters gathered outside Parliament to protest against the policies of austerity and privatization of government booed the vote of confidence from Parliament.

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Secretary General of the OECD since 2006, Angel Gurria, 61, has been renewed for a second term of four years as head of the organization in 2010. Former Minister of Finance, Budget and Foreign Affairs of Mexico, he managed an iron hand the consequences of the Mexican crisis of 1995. He is an ardent supporter of the enlargement of the OECD to emerging countries.

LE FIGARO. – What is the OECD today? Is it the think-tank of globalization?

Angel Gurria. – No this is not a think-tank! It is an intergovernmental organization dedicated to the promotion and implementation of better policies for a better life. We observe, measure, comparing the data, draws conclusions, which are transformed into policy proposals. It covers all the topics of economic, social, environmental.Only exceptions: military defense.

In fifty years, what do you see as the greatest successes of the OECD?

We just updating the code of conduct for multinational enterprises, written fifty years ago and upgraded several times! Among the findings of the OECD, I quote: the principle of "polluter pays" principle, the objectives of the Millennium Development Goals, the issue of scarcity of natural resources.There are also investigations on education Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment, Ed) which are a bombshell in the world's lowest-scoring, or the anti-corruption convention, which gave rise to new legislation in Russia, Israel, Chile and the United Kingdom! Finally, thanks to the OECD, bank secrecy for tax evasion is dead …

The great weakness of the OECD is it not the absence of sanctions?

The power does not lie in the ability to punish but to convince. No international organization can not really impose sanctions on Member States, apart from the European Union fast cash advance loan. But the EU is a special case: the Member States agreed to dispose of part of their sovereignty, which is not the case at the OECD.Nevertheless, our country reports, our rankings and our method of Pisa "name and shame" (literally "name and shame", Ed) on taxation are feared by the Member States.

Does it matter that the G20 countries are not all OECD member?

No! We work with Brazil, China, Russia, India, South Africa or Indonesia daily on all subjects. They are asking for reports. They participate in our work. Of course, it would be better if they were full members because they participated in our decisions, but we are not looking to become a universal organization. Efficiency does not depend on the number. The important thing is to have the views of major emerging issues of global concern.

What would prevent China from being an OECD member?

Nothing! She can start accession negotiations tomorrow, if she wishes.The OECD was invited as a privileged partner in 2007, with a membership perspective. At the approach to it, decide if it wants to become a member or not. For us it would be an honor and a privilege. Then, in the end process, it will be for Member States of the OECD to decide if China meets the political criteria and techniques …

Should we restructure, reschedule debt Greek?

The decision to go to a debt rescheduling Greek does not seem bad. This gives time to digest Greece for its adjustment measures. For contracts, grant a repayment is the lesser evil, which does not reduce the principal amount of the debt. When this was discussed at Ecofin, last week, lenders have responded well: the yields of the Greek debt eased. The markets were reassured.

Wolfgang Schäuble confirmed and signed. At the risk of alienating France and the ECB, the German Finance Minister said yesterday that "the time has come" to pay to banks and private investors holding the bag in the crisis of sovereign debt. "It's a question of moral responsibility, said the German official. Ultimately, investors – and that includes of course the European bond holders – must support both the risks and the benefits of their investment. In recent crises, it is almost exclusively the taxpayers who have borne the loss. This is unacceptable! "

The offensive seeks to convince partners of Germany, when the bloc about to lock a permanent mechanism for rescue of troubled countries. Joined the menu of the June EU summit, the European Stability Mechanism (SPM) should enter into operation in 2013.But in the midst of controversy over a possible debt forgiveness in favor of Athens, Wolfgang Schäuble furbishes also the weapons of those who argue that the creditor banks should immediately take their share of the burden.

Market Discipline

The replica of the European Central Bank did not take long. The chief economist Juergen Stark has denounced as a "catastrophe" scenario of a debt restructuring Greek. It would cause, he said, "collapse" of the economy and banking system in the country. Across the eurozone, it would complicate the use of borrowing for other troubled countries. It would kill the plans in the bud "adjustment" set up for Ireland and Portugal. For Vice-President of the ECB's Vitor Constancio, "The debt restructuring should remain what it is, a final and last resort."

France, she is sticking to its position."It is beyond question, be it restructuring, rescheduling or debt reprofiling, Tuesday assured Christine Lagarde. The only issue at stake is the determination of Greece to implement the program, "austerity negotiated with the EU, the IMF and the ECB.

Expected at the forum yesterday in Brussels, the French minister was canceled. We need more to convince markets that the succession process rigor imposed on Greece, Ireland and Portugal may succeed.

"The political risk of alienating voters'

Deutsche Bank expects a debt forgiveness of 50% to allow Greece to start on a sound footing. "Nobody can argue that Europe now has a satisfactory system rescue, said its chief economist Thomas Mayer.Banks should, too, suffer the discipline of the market and fail if necessary "under the weight of bad loans.

Wolfgang Schäuble added to demonstrate a political argument to deflect the rise of populism. "To constantly refloat private investors, policy makers may simply alienate European voters. It's not for nothing that the EU institutions are perceived as distant, technocratic and locked in a world of impenetrable jargon and insider trading. "To constantly refloat private investors, policymakers may s alienate voters in Europe … "

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Hotel occupancy in France was restarted in 2010 after the 2009 economic crisis, while the success of the campsites can not be denied, especially for higher-end, according to an INSEE survey released Thursday.

In 2010 the number of overnight stays in hotels rose 2.2% in France compared to 2009 to 192.2 million. The growth has not led to clear decline in 2009 (-4.9%). Let alone find the record of 2007 (198.9 million nights), this study is conducted in partnership between INSEE and the general direction of Competitiveness, Industry and Services (DGCIS).

Business customers (+4.6%) largely explains the recovery. Foreign tourists are partly income (+2.8%). The attendance of French customers has also increased (+2%).

The upscale hotels are the first beneficiaries of the recovery.The number of overnight stays increased by 12% for 4 and 5 star establishments, 3.7% for the 3 stars but is down 0.7% for the 2 stars.

Chinese customers (+45%) arrive en masse, before the South Americans (+28%) and clients of the Near and Middle East (+23%).

Europeans are fewer (-0.2%). The clientele of the United Kingdom, traditionally the most important, yet declining sharply in 2010 (-6.7%). However, attendance is strong from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (+13.2%) and Russians (28.3%).

For the 2010 season, the number of overnight camping has increased slightly (+0.9%) to 103.8 million.