Investors remain on the alert
The stock market bounce this week has been facilitated by the concerted action of major central banks. The markets now await a response to the crisis of the euro and they still fear a return to recession is not yet integrated into the course.
• Central banks have put out the fire. Policy is to act.
To rebound, stock markets were expecting a strong gesture. A kind of kick in the bottom of the pool after the distressing spectacle of the leaders of member countries of the euro unable to agree on rescue Greece. The first impetus was given by central banks that have decided to tackle the funding problems of European banks. By providing all the liquidity they need dollars, they have the most urgent and avoided a new banking crisis. But the most difficult tasks lie ahead.For central banks are independent organizations, they therefore have the flexibility of movement that do not have the seventeen Member States of the euro. Now it is in the field of European governance, the ability of states to reduce their debt and the solidity of the European financial stability that is expected the euro area. Subjects whose implementation is far from certain and have not finished putting markets under pressure.
• Focus on growth, defensive stocks do not pay more.
The crash of August brought down one of the last great stock market myth: the resilience of defensive stocks in times of crisis. The numbers speak for themselves: Veolia Environnement and Suez, specializing in utilities, a sector traditionally very defensive, yielded 42 and 20% over the last three months.EDF and GDF Suez lost their next 18 and 12%. France Telecom, Vivendi and Vinci also fell sharply. During the summer, these values have not only shown no ability to resist, but they often fell as much as "cyclical" as Lafarge, ArcelorMittal, Saint-Gobain or Peugeot. The only values that really are resilient growth companies in these emerging countries have low debt and strong brands. LVMH is the case, Essilor International, SEB, Air Liquide, Bic or Hermes International. The clear market preference for growth stocks at the expense of defense is not surprising in times of crisis. It is precisely because investors fear a slowdown in the richer countries, that growth is so sought after by scholars.The famous guru of Wall Street, the American Peter Lynch, who long prospered the famous Magellan fund, has shown: in the long run, only the values of growth are able to enrich shareholders. His motto: there is no fortune by multiplying the stock market moves, but the success by joining the best companies at the time.
• Economists fear a growing recession in the United States.
The euro crisis is not the only concern of the operators. According to a survey by the Wall Street Journal on a panel of 53 economists, they believe that there is one chance in three that the United States fell into recession in the next twelve months. This sharp deterioration in business expectations is a bad omen.American economists believe the Fed will be reactive at its meeting on 20 September, but they doubt the effectiveness of measures taken to revive the business. The survey, closely watched by traders on Wall Street, the trend weakens. Especially when we know that this feeling is shared by consumers, which contributes 70% to U.S. GDP.
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