For summer 2012, Greece seems any destination found. Each French, the centenary of the infant, does he not have a credit of just over 1000 euros? This is because the amount of debts of the French state vis-à-vis Athens. These figures naturally attain a new flavor since the output of the euro in Greece is no longer a taboo subject.

The amazing thing is that their magnitude and surprise us that the public do mine to discover. Certainly, the record may seem terribly technical. Quite wrongly. Because at the end for the aid to Greece, they pass through the ECB or the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) was created in 2010, is always reduced to public funds made by the States and their taxpayers.

Just before leaving his post as finance minister, Baroin said so too cursive that if Greece were to fail, there would be a "net" loss of 50 billion for our public finances. The potential risk actually rises to 66.4 billion euros if we take into consideration all the circuits in which the French state is involved. Nor our partners Euroland (each depending on the size of its population), but not less.

Three-stage rocket

We use here the estimate we have communicated Eric Dor, the research director of the IESEG School of Management in Lille, which has the merit of being comprehensive. You have to imagine a three-stage rocket. The first and simplest is direct bilateral aid, decided in May 2010, when it came to light that Athens could no longer finance its debts in the financial markets. The total program is 80 billion euros, 52.9 billion were actually loaned, the French share standing at 11.4 billion euros.

The second stage uses a more sophisticated financial techniques. The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) borrow on the markets and relending to countries in need. But this is just a dummy account. If Greece should become defective, the EFSF would turn to the states that are the guarantor, and they should bail out pronto. French commitments in respect of Greece now total 22.5 billion euros.

The third floor, the tip of the rocket, is the Sioux and for the European Central Bank. Central banks are often presented, especially in France where we love to believe in miracles, as "deus ex machina." Do not they have the power to create money "from scratch" and fund banks, and why not states, as would today Francois Hollande? The ECB has paid with his person in two ways. First, she bought in the markets of Greece's debt to the tune of 45 billion euros. In case of default, such securities would lose much of their value if not all. The ECB would have to be recapitalized by its shareholders (Banque de France, Bundesbank …), their own properties States. Where a potential loss of 9.8 billion to French taxpayers.

Second channel used by the ECB, it helped Greece even more heavily in providing liquidity to commercial banks in Greece. This was done in exchange for securities that served as collateral (collateral in technical terms). In total, these contributions amounted officially to 104 billion at March 31, 2012. If Greece were to leave the euro and adopt the drachma, the collateral would be worth almost nothing. The potential risk for the French is estimated at 22.7 billion euros.

A "solidarity principle" sacrosanct

This is so schematic, the public debt of France. These elements of analysis are quite formal. One only wonders why the parliamentary assemblies have never produced a complete synthesis.

"It is our collective money is at stake. An attack on one country is an attack on the entire group, "explained Christine Lagarde, Minister of Finance, the National Assembly in spring 2010. This reminds the billboards to "sell" the Russian loans to investors of the Third Republic: "Lending to Russia is to pay to France."

In September 2011, the National Assembly voted as one man French participation in the second bailout in favor of Athens, on behalf of a "solidarity principle" sacrosanct. A senior ECB official told us recently his amazement, when he visited a prominent official of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly: it does not even remember the amount of commitments made by France EFSF!

This is "the unbearable lightness of being" French politician who reasons in terms of symbols always and forever depending on the nature of things. It is far from substantive discussions of the Bundestag and the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, presented in France as troublemakers around in circles. While they are only defending the principles of law and fact, the German public was heard of the case. "Avalanche, would you take me in your fall?" Sighs one with us.

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A cold shower. Francois Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault, the new duo at the head of the executive, could not begin their terms with worse prospects on the employment front. According to the Bureau of Unedic, the unemployment insurance system – that can not be accused of anti-hollandisme since it is composed, for half, representatives of trade unions – the number of registered unemployed in Class A (no activity) should swell to 178,500 in 2012 and then to 128,300 next year. A total of 306,800 additional people in two years, an increase of 10.6% over current levels.

This would be a disaster for the head of state who is committed during the campaign to reverse the unemployment curve, within one year after his election. To revise its forecast of 2012 and first establish financial and employment projections for 2013, services Unedic have incorporated into their models – reliable, in general – the new growth assumptions adopted by the consensus of economists (+ 0 , 3% and +1% of GDP for the current year and the next).

Scenario B more positive

If you look at job seekers who exercised reduced activity (categories B and C), increasing the total number of unemployed in the Hexagon will be even higher than 110,200, representing an increase of 9.7% in two years. Main explanation: the employment should fall further to 91,300 units in two years, bringing to nearly 300,000 the number of jobs destroyed in the Hexagon on the equivalent of a seven-year term. These poor forecasts, if realized, would further aggravate a little hole Unedic whose accumulated deficit frôlerait 18.2 billion euros end 2013. A record.

The new president and his prime minister, however, will find two tiny glimmers of hope in the fifteen pages of notes prediction Unedic. First, the deficit expected in late 2012 was revised downwards (from 1.3 billion euros) compared to recent estimates, established mid-January because of poor advance of revenues and expenditures. Second, the unemployment insurance system has also established a scenario B if growth would be higher in 2012 and 2013 – the bet made by Francois Hollande with the policies he wants to implement.  

If the GDP grew by 0.7% this year and 1.4% in 2013, the rising number of unemployed in Class A would be reduced to 169,200 over two years (half that in the central hypothesis) and the economy would begin to create jobs in 2013, with a positive balance of about 53,300 jobs by the end of next year.

The impact on the finances of Unedic would be immediate: the debt would be reduced to 17.2 billion at end 2013, one billion less than the central scenario. A completely different horizon.

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Since Friday, the plant Fralib is occupied by its employees. A situation that is denounced by the president of Unilever France, Bruno Witvoët. "This is unacceptable in a constitutional state, says in an interview in Paris-Today-in-France. Such a coup with hooded individuals armed with baseball bats and batons, it is not of union action, it's a commando! ". The boss of Unilever France claiming the expulsion "immediate and prompt action with law enforcement" employees, has also filed a complaint for "physical threats" from the police. "From fabrications," Olivier replied Leberquier, CGT union. According to the police of Aubagne, intervened at the scene, there would have been no collision.

"Holland must keep its promises"

"Closing a plant is always a very difficult decision, Bruno recognizes Witvoët. But in some cases – including tea bags – we have overcapacity. This is justified in stopping this site ". He said Unilever has taken responsibility in the case of employees of Fralib, accepting "to add additional resources for the revitalization of the local employment" as required by justice. "Funds for creating new jobs has increased from 1 to 1.5 million euros" and "each dismissed employee is entitled to an internal transfer, pay the same conditions, in one of six other plants in France , "he said.

This new twist, the 592nd day of the conflict comes as 80 of the 103 employees still struggle, of 182 initially received their letter of dismissal. At the same time, a moving company came to do a quote on the site, and management proposed the CGT to move out of its local business, or in organizing the escorted access, for reasons of safety concerns, dismantling machinery. A scenario rejected by the union, which wants to keep the tool working on site to implement an alternative plan of recovery of activity.

Given this situation, unions are demanding the intervention of Francois Hollande. During the presidential campaign, President-elect said: "Nothing is done, nothing is guaranteed and if victory comes, I will also be at your side, President of the French Republic, to get your site live, had he launched at a meeting of employees Fralib in Paris in February. "The company is now under the control of the CGT and the Netherlands should keep its promises. His election is a ray of hope, "says Olivier Leberquier. The standoff between employees Fralib and its direction is far from over.

The tone has hardened in the conflict between marine companies between Corsica and the mainland. The strike called by the CGT Wednesday to demand the application of the same social laws to all shipping companies, including foreign competition, making these runs was repeated on Sunday. This movement was caused Saturday "anger" of the direction of SNCM (Société Nationale Corse Méditerranée), 66% subsidiary of Veolia Transdev. The South (ex-CMN) is also affected by the strike. The movement "is followed at 28% to SNCM, a little more to the CMN, but enough to prevent smuggling," said the leadership of SNCM.

The nine SNCM ships and the South (ex-CMN) assigned to services between Marseille, Nice and Corsica are therefore remained docked for the fifth consecutive day, some 13,000 passengers were affected since the conflict began. Many of them have changed their return by traveling on ships of the private company Corsica Ferries, Italian flag, which normally circulate. SNCM has expressed "outrage" because "this movement supposed to fight our competitors strengthens the contrary, beyond their expectations." Moreover, the director of the company for Corsica, Pierre-André Giovannini, expressed his "regret for the inconvenience to our customers, passengers and cargo carriers, and this new blow to the island economy." He said over the weekend of May 8 Bridge is "one of the most important pre-season tourist" for Corsica.

Political parties challenged

The striker will meet again on Monday to decide on the following movement. "So is the future of thousands of jobs in our profession," says the union in a statement savings account payday advance. The strike comes as the ferries market suffered the turmoil of the crisis in recent years. Thus, since its passage in the private sector in 2006, SNCM has almost always been in the red. She was accused of operating losses of 15 million euros last year. Especially, the CGT sailors had already scored a major coup a year ago by stopping work for 47 days, never seen to SNCM. If it were to get bogged down, however this new strike is unlikely to change the trajectory of the group. The direction of the SNCM instead reiterated its "determination to rapidly modernize and evolve the company, in all areas." Last March, the chief executive, Marc Dufour, warned that SNCM would have to separate at least two car ferries and 800 employees in 1617.

The case quickly took a political turn. Friday, a trade union delegation was received in Paris by representatives of different parties, including the national secretary of the PCF, Peter Lawrence. His party has tabled in the Senate on March 22 a bill to require all companies operating in France the first entry in register of ships, making them subject to French social laws. Sailors CGT also met the spokesman of the Socialist Party, Benoît Hamon, who is, according to the union, "clearly in favor of the adoption of this law," and a consultant Francois Hollande. In Marseille, finally, a delegation was received by the federation UMP.

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The French may well have low morale and closely monitor their spending, not about to give up one of their tasty treats: chocolate bars. This is one of the fastest growing segments (7%) on the market for chocolate confectionery, dominated by three heavyweights: Ferrero (Kinder Bueno, Country), Mars (Mars, Twix, Snickers) and Nestlé (KitKat, Lion). "In times of crisis, the French do not want to agree to give up small pleasures available, explains Christophe Bordin, Ferrero France. They arbitrate on other expenses. "Higher prices, less than 2%, due to soaring raw material, nothing changed.

Better growth potential remains high. The French consume on average only three chocolate bars a year, half that of tablets. However, public health campaigns against obesity, especially among children, they have seriously been shadowed. The bars have all but disappeared and fronts of boxes hypermarkets.

Nutrition a key priority

So, most actors, who have given up advertising per hour of after school, have made improving the nutritional profile of their bar one of their warhorses. This is one of the sinews of war fought in this market extremely dominated by Kinder Bueno (Ferrero), the youngest, born just twenty years ago. March, who has made improving his recipe one of the keys of his reconquest of the French market, has pioneered five years ago. There was urgency: mothers had diverted from his bar, which was the first in the French market in 1951, finding it too greasy and disgusting.

After declining the use of saturated fatty acids and fats, March flatly reduces the size of its bar (- 7%). And to inject a little "dream" in his communication, he revived his pub in 1995 and the American imagination of the Wild West, while reviving its historic slogan ("A March, and it goes again") creditreport. Mission accomplished in two years, he won a million new consumers. "Our goal is to become a leader in the segment of chocolate bars," says Thierry Gaillard, president of Mars Chocolat France, whose cult brand is celebrating his eighty years.

Quest for respectability

Even fighting for KitKat (Nestle), one of the most bars sold in the world (17.6 billion in 2010), which in 2008 launched a light version for women ("Senses", 165 calories). Before going out early 2012 "Singles", a single bar to 80 calories.

The battle is fierce. "As this product pulse that are not on the shopping list, the key remains visible in stores and media, based on strong brands," said Thierry Gaillard. Even more than innovation, the "classic" generate most sales. Face Ferrero, who has the largest sales force in the market (400 sales), March 85 vendors hired last year to push its promos. In the agribusiness sector, Ferrero France – who recruited the tennis champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to the pub Kinder Bueno – advertising remains the largest investor with 215 million euros (+8%) in 2011.

In this quest for respectability, chocolate bars have an asset in France: the famous "taste" of children, sacred pause in the Hexagon. On this particular field that Kinder Bueno has succeeded in widening the gap with its competitors. Because it is perceived to be lighter, moms do not hesitate to give their children for their "four hours" instead of biscuits and pastries.

]]> http://ecopolhome.com/the-insolent-french-energy-market-chocolate-bars/feed/ 0 http://ecopolhome.com/based-in-amsterdam-air-france-would-save/ http://ecopolhome.com/based-in-amsterdam-air-france-would-save/#comments Sat, 07 Apr 2012 00:32:09 +0000 admin http://ecopolhome.com/based-in-amsterdam-air-france-would-save/  

If Air Mediterranean, the French company in difficulty which had relocated to Greece part of his job by creating a local structure, is the perfect illustration of what is wrong with the management of aircrew in France, according to members of the Federation National aviation market (FNAM). Thursday, members of the employers' organization presented a dozen proposals to candidates in the presidential election.

The first of these is to reduce labor costs in the airline industry for companies based in the Hexagon. "Once a company is engaged in a third country with fiscal conditions of the country of origin, the competition promotes the competition governed by social charges and taxes lower," regrets Pascal de Izaguirre, president of the Economic Committee of FNAM. The French sailors cost 20% more on average than elsewhere in Europe, according to Lionel Guerin, President of FNAM.

To restore the French flag in the skies over Europe, members of FNAM require "a shift in the social security contribution base of other taxes and a reduction of employers' costs especially for the sailors, pilots, hostesses and stewards. " Clearly, the French companies require a social framework "harmonized" to address critical gaps between European countries. "In return, we could expand our business and create jobs," says Pascal de Izaguirre.

Maintaining night flying

Air France made its accounts if the company was based in Amsterdam, it would save 750 million euros due to the difference between the tax and benefit systems between France and the Netherlands. "The goal is to avoid seeing happen in the air what happened in the shipping industry where employment is now completely relocated," says Lionel Guerin, also CEO of Transavia, a subsidiary low -cost airline Air France. The answer candidates for this proposal is surprisingly consensual. Nicolas Sarkozy's advisers have estimated that this track orally should be studied. For his part, Francois Hollande replied in writing that "state aid and tax breaks" should go "to companies that invest in our country, who will locate their operations. However, it is clear that future developments should respect the need to balance our accounts. "

Among other proposals, the decrease in security tax, currently borne by passengers; the establishment of a European regulatory framework facing international competition to avoid the payment of state aid in favor of certain carriers, maintaining night flights, easier access to hub airports, but also investing in research to prepare energy developments.

Members of FNAM, who had already launched similar proposals five years ago, hoping this time to be heard. "At the time, Air France and other companies were going well, the price of fuel was half the price … Today, we take the alarm. In five years, we can not say that we had nothing planned, "says the chairman of TUI France.

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Burger King goes on the offensive to win back customers less and less convinced. Director North America of fast food chain, Steve Wiborg, detailed this weekend at USA Today's battle plan. It comes in three areas: promoting healthier recipes to the menu (chicken, fruit smoothies …), new decoration of restaurants and extensive advertising campaign. 2500 U.S. restaurants and should be renovated in the next three years, while celebrities such as footballer David Beckham will be mobilized for the campaign.

Miami-based chain, bought in 2010 for $ 3.9 billion by the fund 3G Capital, had to react. Last year, it lost its traditional position as the second largest seller of hamburgers in the U.S., restaurant owners and franchisees alike. According to research firm Technomic, Wendy's has topped the pole with $ 8.5 billion hamburgers sold, 100 million more than Burger King, but still far behind the 34.2 billion King McDonald's.

The growing strength of Wendy's has been attributed to its new range of sandwiches more upscale and upgrade its stores, operated in 2011.

The snub did not extend to the international market, where Burger King is an undisputed number two easy payday loans. The chain is present in 81 countries through 12,500 of which only 1,300 are restaurants owned.

By expanding the franchise

Both franchises expected to widen again over its international expansion. In late 2011, Burger King realized indeed still two thirds of its revenue – $ 2.3 billion versus 2.5 billion for fiscal year 2010-2011 – North America.

The new shareholder intends to continue its growth in emerging countries and Europe, where Germany, Spain and Great Britain predominate. An upcoming opening in France, which would pass through a franchise with Autogrill's partner Burger King in Italy, is expected.

The choice of an expansion franchise by offering the chain, heavily in debt since it was bought by leveraged capital 3G, greater financial flexibility. Negative, it restricts its ability to control the implementation of its campaigns, often very expensive renovation in restaurants. In the U.S., the owner of a fast food must put on the table between $ 300,000 and $ 1.5 million, as merely a lick of paint or he rebuilt his building for s adapt to new standards group.

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SNCF is mobilizing to appease the discontent of its users. It has just six new commitments, collectively called "guaranteed trip", to improve the service provided to them. Applicable on March 31 and the TGV intercity trains, the new device, designed with consumer groups, will have a budget of 50 million euros.

The "guarantee travel" includes minimizing the impact of the delays complained of increasingly frequent travelers. In case of delay of over an hour and whatever the cause, the SNCF is committed to providing its passengers two options: either full and immediate refund of the return ticket, or can borrow another train at the same price within 48 hours. In the event of contingencies, the SNCF to fund those it has not been resolved transport travel by taxi or a hotel room.  

History of punctuality

The railway company will also make an effort in terms of information. To help customers make their transport choices knowingly, the site will release a historic infolignes.com punctuality of trains and intercity TGV last 60 days. The exact cause delays of more than 15 minutes will also be shown the next day on the internet.

In an interview in Le Parisien – Aujourd'hui en France, the CEO of SNCF Voyages, Barbara Dalibard, said that more work will be provided to inform travelers of their late train, by SMS or email. For this, 30,000 field workers will be equipped with smartphones that will allow them to trace information more easily.

A new "guaranteed seat" finally improve the service offered to passengers overbooked. The skipper will help them find a place, and if necessary outperform the first class. If no seat is still available, the station will offer the customer who had to make his journey standing financial compensation "in the form of travel vouchers of 10 €, 20 € or 30 €.

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While fuel prices going from record to record in France, a study by German GIZ revealed by Challenges, shows that the French are not the worst off. Every two years, this independent economic research firm analyzes the price of gasoline and diesel in 170 countries. The experts come to update some of the results to reflect the surge in oil prices. The barrel has indeed increased by about $ 20 since the last measurements in 2010.

According to the survey, the price differences among countries are unprecedented. Gasoline is cheaper and 112 times in Venezuela, where it costs 0.17 euro per liter, as in Turkey where it reached 1.91 euro per liter, and 88 times cheaper than in France (1.50 per liter on average).

Subsidies and taxes are the difference

To explain these price differences, GIZ identified four groups of countries. The first category includes all states like Venezuela disconnects the fuel price of one barrel of oil through grants awarded to distributors. It is only country in the top 20 oil producers like Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, United Arab Emirates paydayloans. The price per liter do not exceed € 0.38.

The second set also includes oil-producing countries but the subsidy policy is less aggressive. Accordingly, the fuel price is a little higher, but remains below the market price is around € 0.58 and a liter as in Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Angola or Sudan.

In the third category, however, there are countries whose tax increased the price of a liter of petrol above the market price. This is the case of the United States, China, Russia or Brazil. The fuel is sold from 0.64 to 1.04 euro per liter.

The last group consists of states where governments have established a strong fuel tax. This is true of all countries of the European Union, Switzerland, Turkey but also in poor countries such as Eritrea and Rwanda. At the pump, the price is greater than 1 euro per liter.

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