For summer 2012, Greece seems any destination found. Each French, the centenary of the infant, does he not have a credit of just over 1000 euros? This is because the amount of debts of the French state vis-à-vis Athens. These figures naturally attain a new flavor since the output of the euro in Greece is no longer a taboo subject.

The amazing thing is that their magnitude and surprise us that the public do mine to discover. Certainly, the record may seem terribly technical. Quite wrongly. Because at the end for the aid to Greece, they pass through the ECB or the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) was created in 2010, is always reduced to public funds made by the States and their taxpayers.

Just before leaving his post as finance minister, Baroin said so too cursive that if Greece were to fail, there would be a "net" loss of 50 billion for our public finances. The potential risk actually rises to 66.4 billion euros if we take into consideration all the circuits in which the French state is involved. Nor our partners Euroland (each depending on the size of its population), but not less.

Three-stage rocket

We use here the estimate we have communicated Eric Dor, the research director of the IESEG School of Management in Lille, which has the merit of being comprehensive. You have to imagine a three-stage rocket. The first and simplest is direct bilateral aid, decided in May 2010, when it came to light that Athens could no longer finance its debts in the financial markets. The total program is 80 billion euros, 52.9 billion were actually loaned, the French share standing at 11.4 billion euros.

The second stage uses a more sophisticated financial techniques. The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) borrow on the markets and relending to countries in need. But this is just a dummy account. If Greece should become defective, the EFSF would turn to the states that are the guarantor, and they should bail out pronto. French commitments in respect of Greece now total 22.5 billion euros.

The third floor, the tip of the rocket, is the Sioux and for the European Central Bank. Central banks are often presented, especially in France where we love to believe in miracles, as "deus ex machina." Do not they have the power to create money "from scratch" and fund banks, and why not states, as would today Francois Hollande? The ECB has paid with his person in two ways. First, she bought in the markets of Greece's debt to the tune of 45 billion euros. In case of default, such securities would lose much of their value if not all. The ECB would have to be recapitalized by its shareholders (Banque de France, Bundesbank …), their own properties States. Where a potential loss of 9.8 billion to French taxpayers.

Second channel used by the ECB, it helped Greece even more heavily in providing liquidity to commercial banks in Greece. This was done in exchange for securities that served as collateral (collateral in technical terms). In total, these contributions amounted officially to 104 billion at March 31, 2012. If Greece were to leave the euro and adopt the drachma, the collateral would be worth almost nothing. The potential risk for the French is estimated at 22.7 billion euros.

A "solidarity principle" sacrosanct

This is so schematic, the public debt of France. These elements of analysis are quite formal. One only wonders why the parliamentary assemblies have never produced a complete synthesis.

"It is our collective money is at stake. An attack on one country is an attack on the entire group, "explained Christine Lagarde, Minister of Finance, the National Assembly in spring 2010. This reminds the billboards to "sell" the Russian loans to investors of the Third Republic: "Lending to Russia is to pay to France."

In September 2011, the National Assembly voted as one man French participation in the second bailout in favor of Athens, on behalf of a "solidarity principle" sacrosanct. A senior ECB official told us recently his amazement, when he visited a prominent official of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly: it does not even remember the amount of commitments made by France EFSF!

This is "the unbearable lightness of being" French politician who reasons in terms of symbols always and forever depending on the nature of things. It is far from substantive discussions of the Bundestag and the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, presented in France as troublemakers around in circles. While they are only defending the principles of law and fact, the German public was heard of the case. "Avalanche, would you take me in your fall?" Sighs one with us.

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Angela Merkel to hold the said it is preparing to receive the head of state in Europe who feel most attached to the euro. If it should remain a single country in the single currency – strange paradox – it would be France. While London bookmakers have stopped betting on an output of Greece, both in their likelihood seems strong (4 against 1), France is the country where the probability of abandonment of the single currency seems most low, with a score of 20 against 1. Our risk of secession is smaller than that of Germany (14/1) and a fortiori of Spain (12/1).

Without being scientific opinion of the bookmakers perfectly expresses the historical reality. It was François Mitterrand, who had pressured Kohl to waive its Deutsche Mark, symbol of German success, and not vice versa. And now the fear of Germany going it alone is not negligible.

The Judgment of Solomon

This is certainly not an asset but to enter a negotiation being as attached to the object of bargaining. In the judgment of Solomon, the true mother would rather give up her child rather than see it cut in half as we offered him. Lionel Jospin had experienced to his cost in June 1997, when he requested a trustee appoint a growth component in the Stability Pact. This was done in terms of the Treaty of Amsterdam – the city from the top – where you added "and growth", a mere rhetorical flourish. And a few months later, when a new record for employment in Luxembourg, the "socialist left" vain declare that "social Europe deserves a euro crisis," the threat was empty guaranteed cash advance.

This time the chances of reaching a "compromise" in the words of Pierre Moscovici, the campaign manager Francois Hollande, are much greater. Unlike the summer of 1997 where she had already begun a recovery, the European economy is in recession. Face a fundamental problem that it does not deny, Angela Merkel has also taken the lead. Of the six points it offers (see above) are the "projects bonds" financing investment projects. The kinship is more than semantics with the "Eurobonds", aimed at pooling, in part, public debts … and that excludes Berlin.

In the French camp, Michel Sapin, a bright future ministry, just recognized the dangers of renewed worsening deficits and debt. This concession to the Chancellor will she meet up at any price schedule of deficit reduction, or do we give to the freeze?

At stake is the reputation of a "Holland, Roosevelt again for Europe", the socialist economist Thomas Piketty, apostle of tax benefits, strives to accredit Urbi et Orbi. But do not forget that New Deal also includes structural reforms. This component is part of the negotiation that engages in Europe, as evidenced by the fact-finding mission that has just visited Brussels to Paris, as well as in eleven other European economies face obvious problems of competitiveness. Its findings will be formally presented on May 30

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Nicolas Sarkozy retorted tit for tat. Questioned Tuesday by Anne Lauvergeon in an interview published by L'Express, the Head of State, on Friday invited to iTV, has applied to meet about the former president of Areva. "All this is of politicking," he judged. "What makes it less credible that Lauvergeon said was that she waited to be put out to challenge a system that she wanted to continue to participate in the first place as president of Areva," Nicolas Sarkozy has argued low fee payday loans.

He also underlined the political commitment of the former CEO, also old Sherpa Mitterrand: "It is now the president of Liberation, with a known commitment to the left". Lauvergeon has headed the supervisory board of the newspaper in July 2011.

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The main presidential candidates did not wait for the election to take one of their promises. Determined to fight for the Made in France, they sent their activists dressed in Finistere. In January, the campaign manager Francois Bayrou has commanded Armor Lux 5000 T-shirts.

Since then, Young Pop, the UMP and, more recently, the PS bought at MSY Finisterian its famous knitwear knitted cotton. In total, 17,000 Armor Lux has sold T-shirts in the colors of political parties. "From the mesh knitting, dyeing, through cutting and making up the printing of the logo, everything is done here in Quimper," said Jean-Guy Le Floch, CEO of the SMEs of 550 employees, which distributes its products under the Armor Lux, Land and Sea and Bermuda.

Riding this wave of local purchasing, the leader readying ammunition for the coming weeks. He launched the production of gray fabric needed to manufacture 100,000 pieces. "Until the second round of the presidential election, our online t-shirt will turn right", says he. The price difference is however quite sensitive: depending on the model, Armor Lux sells between 7 and 5.50 euros each, while made in China is on the market at around € 1.20.

60% of production is delocalized

In 2011, the company achieved a turnover of 82 million euros, against 75 the previous year. "We develop our downtown retail network a hundred square meters, and around the stores between 700 and 1 000 m². Undoubtedly, consumers want authentic products, "said Jean-Guy Le Floch. On the first two months of the year, sales to the public increased by 12%. Armor Lux has forty outlets and will open in the second half of four new stores, including one of 1,500 m² in Plaisir (Yvelines). A test for the Breton brand, wishing, after creating three stores in Paris, make its products known to Parisians.

This growth in business volume also comes from major public commissions won by the manufacturer. After the Post Office in 2003 and Aéroports de Paris and SNCF, the national police, the Regional Council of Brittany and Truffault Armor Lux entrust today to achieve the work clothes of their employees. Result: this sector represents 40% of the activity. But the logic of increasing prices dragged down leads Jean-Guy Le Floch to outsource nearly 60% of production in Morocco, Tunisia, Romania and Bulgaria. The presidential candidates are notified.

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Defender said most of the nuclear in government, Eric Besson was not afraid of being labeled a provocateur. This is not just a few hundred of the four reactors at the Japanese central Fukushima Daiichi destroyed by the tsunami on March 11 that the Minister of Industry on Tuesday reaffirmed that "France continues to believe in the future a nuclear with the highest standards of safety. " At the invitation of the Japanese Minister of the Environment, the young Goshi Hosono, Eric Besson is the first member of a foreign government to visit the site of the plant.

After two hours of visit, the French minister said he was "reassured by the overall situation." Precautions taken to this particular field trip, as Le Figaro followed, give a first impression otherwise. First, stop sign at the entrance to the perimeter evacuated twenty miles of the plant, the J Village. The training center of the football team of Japan has been converted into a basic life for 3,000 workers who work day and night at the bedside of the atomic plant. Village of J, departure by bus, duly equipped with a white suit, two pairs of gloves, shoe covers as many plastic full mask and two dosimeters.

No lethal dose

First observation of the Minister of Energy, "there is no strong radioactivity around the plant," he relativized. During the visit mainly by bus, with two stops, one at the foot of reactor number 4 disemboweled, Eric Besson has received a dose of 0.033 millisieverts (mSv), about 140 mSv if he stayed all year. The equivalent of seven times the annual dose permitted for an employee of nuclear power in France, and a still higher threshold to 100 mSv, above which the risk of cancer were found no fax needed payday loans. This reassured the Minister in relation to what he expected dosimetry is reduced in some villages in the forbidden zone. Mayor Kawauchi has asked the government authorization of the return of its approximately 2000 to 3000 administered at home.

Other ground of relief to Eric Besson: health outcomes unrelated to the "astronomical figures that have been circulating." If the tsunami of March 11 caused about 20,000 deaths, not one worker has received a lethal radiation dose, Akio Komori confirmed, a director at Tepco, the plant operator. Twenty-eight have received over 150 mSv, which "some more 500mSv". None of this symptom to date, according to Akio Komori. The 3000 employees who are working to ensure the cooling of reactors have restored the control of the situation. However, Akio Komori fears the consequences of a new powerful earthquake on spent fuel pools, not yet secure. Tepco said the head of three challenges: the treatment of contaminated water, soil remediation throughout the area and dismantling of the reactors.

In the situation room installed since March 11 in an earthquake-proof building of the plant, Eric Besson has launched a hundred busy workers behind their screens: "Your job, in difficult conditions, is important for the future of the sector. "A future, he added, that does not exist" without the confidence of the people. " In Japan, despite the persistence of "divers" of Tepco, that confidence has been permanently shaken.

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Eagerly awaited the release of the envelope is part of the plan of 110 billion euros agreed in May 2010.This decision allows especially on track to the second rescue plan prepared in late October, to be finalized between the Greek Government and private creditors in early 2012 best payday advance.

A sign of confidence

For the new Greek government, this decision is also similar to a pledge of confidence in the euro area for the implementation of austerity measures which the aid was conditional. Athens has also worked hard ahead of the meeting date. In a statement released this afternoon, Evangelos Venizelos, Greek Minister of Finance, has assured that "all the necessary conditions" for the new aid program had been met.

It must be said that the release of the tranche was delayed several times.

Investor sentiment is supported by the information including the Italian newspaper La Stampa over the weekend that the IMF could provide assistance to Italy up to 600 billion if the debt crisis of the countries would increase. This would allow Italy to have a window of 12 to 18 months to implement budget cuts and reforms to strengthen economic growth. The information, which was denied by the United States, is again the IMF itself, which says this morning that no discussions with the Italian authorities have in that place.The worsening financial crisis in the eurozone weighed on the outlook for sovereign debt rating of all European countries, the rating agency warned Monday payday loans lenders.

The oil rises

In this context, the euro is progressing slowly against the greenback. In morning trading, the European currency is worth 1.3310 dollars. Oil is well oriented: a barrel of "light sweet crude" (WTI) for delivery in January of $ 1.63 is assessed at 98.40 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude from the sea North for the same maturity is 1.20 dollar to 107.60 dollars on the Intercontinental Exchange in London.

Side of the agenda, the economic outlook of the OECD are expected in the morning. Sales of new homes in the United States will be known in the afternoon.

Public debt crisis, threat of recession in western countries, job losses in banking, automobile … Nothing seems to affect Airbus and Boeing, who see a looming record year. Like ATR, the world leader in regional aircraft propeller, which flies from strength to strength.With three ATR 42-600 (50 seats) operated by the company in Dubai Siberian North Star, the manufacturer of Toulouse, a subsidiary of EADS and Finmeccanica, accumulated 148 orders since the beginning of the year. Historic levels for ATR and higher than the previous record of 2007 (113 orders). ATR now assumes 80% of the market for new aircraft from 40 to 90 seats, all confused engine (jet or turboprop).

With 221 orders and commitments announced in Dubai for $ 20.5 billion, Airbus also exceeded by mid-November 2011 its goal of 1,500 gross orders. "Our NEO A 320 was again the star of the show," welcomed John Leahy, Airbus chief executive, in charge of clients. Remotorisée version of best-selling Airbus to come into service in 2015, was commissioned to 130 copies in Dubai bringing its backlog to 1420 NEO.

The inability of Europeans to agree on remedies to the crisis of sovereign debt and the prospect of an additional emergency summit in Brussels next week will prohibit the EU President Herman Van Rompuy to honor its meeting with President Hu Jintao and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the BBC a European official.

The involvement of China and its financial resources in a regulation of the European crisis was one of the issues implicit go to Tianjin.Was the first time that the three European leaders, Herman Van Rompuy, and José Manuel Barroso and Ashton had to go all in China.

The last EU-China Summit was held October 6, 2010 in a tense atmosphere in Brussels, Europe has called on China to let its currency appreciate more and make progress on human rights two days before the announcement of the Nobel Peace jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.

After increasing by 0.63% in mid day, the CAC 40 dropped 0.9% in the afternoon, in response to the correction of growth forecasts for the euro area European Central Bank (ECB) . But late in the session, the index gradually returned in the green, gleaning 0.41% to 3085.83 points. On other European financial centers, the London Stock Exchange finished the session up, the FTSE-100 index took 0.41% to 3085.83 points. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange is on his side remained more hesitant, the Dax closed at balance, 5408.46 points (0.05%).

Not surprisingly, the ECB rate remained at current levels, at 1.5%. But the European Central Bank has revised downwards its growth forecast Thursday for the euro area, and taking note of the recent negative developments in the economy and the mood in financial markets. The ECB now sees growth of 1.6% in 2011 for the euro area. However in June it had the opposite raised its forecast to 1.9%. For 2012 it expects growth of 1.3% against 1.7% previously. Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.6% this year and 1.7% next year.

The U.S. employment under the microscope

United States, several indicators of the health of the economy fell. Among them, the weekly jobless claims, which rose during the week to September 3, at 414,000 against 412,000 (revised) the previous week.The trade deficit for its part, declined significantly in July to $ 44.8 billion after two consecutive months above 50 billion, with an unexpected surge in exports. In addition, U.S. inventories of crude oil fell more than expected last week, revealed the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA). They fell 3.96 million barrels to over 353 million, while economists had forecast a decline of 1.9 million barrels.

Two discourses are also highly expected on Thursday, those of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama. The Fed chief will speak at around 19 am, French time, the Economic Club of Minnesota. Investors await details about how the Fed intends to support the economy.This intervention will follow the publication yesterday of its Beige Book, which again reported a moderate growth. For his part, Bush will speak on Congress to 1 am, French time, on employment and growth. It should detail a plan for employment that would reach $ 300 billion, raised yesterday by the U.S. media.

In France, growth in employment has slowed

In France, INSEE announced that the dealer paid employment decelerated in the second quarter.Principally market sectors have created a total of 33,300 jobs over the period April to June, from 78,300 in the first three months of the year, an increase of 0.2% against 0.5% the previous quarter.

The trade deficit widened further in July, reaching 6.46 billion euros in seasonally adjusted data, weighed down by a rebound in imports, Customs officials said Thursday.

Moreover, according to the OECD, economic growth in developed countries could slow sharply, see stalling in the second half and central banks must be prepared to ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates or intervening on markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that growth in the G7 should not exceed 1.6% annualized in the third quarter and is expected to fall to 0.2% over the last three months of year. In France, activity is expected to increase only 0.9% and 0.4% annualized, against 1.8% and 1.9% previously expected.

On the currency side, the euro continues to widen its losses: the European currency fell to 1.3945 dollars, its lowest level since July 12.Oil, he, rising as a result of the prolonged interruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storm: a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 41 cents to 89.75 dollars a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery takes 18 cents to 115.98 dollars in morning trading.

Values ​​to follow on Thursday

• Banking

Stress tests imposed on European banks have made "transparency and clarity" on the strength of their balance sheets, said Wednesday night a Treasury official in the United States.

Banks react well. Among the largest increases in Société Générale took CAC 3.72% (at 20.01 euros), BNP Paribas 4.49% (at 33.06 euros) Crédit Agricole 3.06% (at 5.92 euros).Natixis took the head of the CAC 40 (4.77% to 2.65 euros).

• Areva (-0.20% to 20.74 euros)

The French nuclear group Areva said Thursday was ready to process the spent fuel still present on the site of Fukushima and propose to the Japanese government and the company Tepco lasting solutions to manage the post accident.

• Gemalto (5.46% to 35.43 euros)

The title leads increases the SBF 120, the group is in the midst of "road show", between August 26 and September 15, analysts point out. The action bounces also important on a technical device, which accentuates the rise in the stock, analysts note charts.Since August 25, the title was up over 13%.

• EADS (-0.85% to 21.69 euros)

The group is ready to dip deep into a war chest of $ 16 billion (11.3 billion euros) to finance its expansion in the U.S. and is in preliminary discussions with several potential targets, said Wednesday its chief executive for North America.In addition, the European missile manufacturer MBDA, in part by EADS, would be forced to reduce its workforce by 400 jobs by 2015, according to La Tribune.

Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, is also considering a third increase its production capacity in one of its scenarios for 2018 to meet demand, the success of the A320 Neo scarce slots delivery before 2020, The Tribune reported Thursday.

• TF1 (0.34% to 10.38 euros) and EuropaCorp (-0.91% to 3.90 euros)

The two groups announced Wednesday the signing of a Framework Agreement for development to produce the series in English for television.

• Ipsos: -2.20% to 26.90 euros

The group has launched a capital increase in cash of approximately 200 million euros to finance the purchase of Synovate.

• GDF Suez: + 0.32% to 20.55 euros

The group will transfer to the Italian ENI participation of 10.4% in gas fields in the North Sea to pay off debt, reported Thursday Les Echos.

• Technip: + 1.73% to 67.03 euros

In consortium with National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC), the group won a contract worth about $ 500 million for engineering, procurement and construction of the project Satah Full Field Development, a field located 200 km northwest of Abu Dhabi (UAE).

• Sanofi: -0.54% to 49.65 euros

Genzyme, the biotechnology laboratory of the U.S. bought by the French group, was unable to deliver its drug Fabrazyme in August, although it promised to doctors and patients to meet this deadline.U.S. regulators have made public Wednesday letters from Genzyme dated August 26 and 25 where the laboratory apologizes to its customers and for people with Fabry disease, a rare genetic disease, for "any confusion and disturbance "caused by the delay.

• France Telecom: + 0.37% to 12.19 euros, Vivendi: -1.06% to 15.89 euros

The new tax passed by the government as part of the new austerity plan should give priority, penalize these two groups, according to Les Echos. France Telecom should be paid to these measures between 300 and 500 million. Vivendi would see him, his taxes increased from 250 to 400 million.

Next recommendation goes to Credit Suisse under-performance against neutral Ipsen (0.28% to 23.02 euros). Societe Generale goes with the purchase of Biomerieux (2.09% to 71.40 euros).