It's official: the economy in the euro zone will be better than expected. The European Central Bank has acknowledged Thursday by raising its growth forecast for 2010 and 2011. According to new figures, the business would grow in 2010 in a range between 1.4 and 1.8% from 0.7% to 1.3% estimated earlier. By 2011, growth would be between 0.5% and 2.3%, against +0.2% +2.2% previously.

"The range of real GDP growth this year has been revised upward due to stronger than expected rebound in economic growth in the second quarter and better than expected trends observed during the months of summer," explained the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet."For 2011, the band has also been revised up to reflect mainly the lingering effects of the stronger growth expected in late 2010."

Uncertainty

Despite these upward revisions, "uncertainty continues to prevail," said Jean-Claude Trichet nuanced. On the other hand, "the resumption of activity should be constrained by the process of balance sheet adjustments in various sectors and the prospects of the labor market."

Especially, the growth differentials are widening between the different countries of the eurozone, economists noted. When Germany led the run with 2.2% growth in the second quarter, Greece sinking into recession with a decline of 1.5% of GDP. Same trend for national unemployment rates. In these circumstances, the ECB's strategy looks complicated.

This is not a problem, "replied Jean-Claude Trichet: the Fed, the U.S., is in the same position for decades with 50 states. "Over the past decade, the lowest growth of a U.S. state was 0.9% (Ohio) and the highest 4.7% (Arizona). We observed the same discrepancy in the euro area over the same period, "argued the president of the ECB. Same thing for the unemployment rates have spread from 3.5% to 14% depending on the states. Again, we found the same range in the Eurozone. "

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The French government wants to reduce by three billion in Budget 2011, tax loopholes enjoyed by the insurance industry, under the "movement of the plane" of 10 billion to reduce the deficit, said Monday AFP at the Department of Economics. The revenue thus acquired will be made to the Sinking Fund of the social debt of 3.2 billion new resources the government has agreed to pay."This revenue will be made in three steps facing the insurance industry at large, because it is the sector with the biggest stake in what guarantees the sustainability of social protection system," said the entourage of the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde.

Resources collected in advance

The first measure deemed included in the Finance Bill to be presented in late September by the cabinet for life insurance, the preferred placement of the French.Included are contracts known as "multi-media, which include a part in Euro (guaranteed capital invested in bonds) and other units of account (mostly invested in equities).

To date, social security contributions (general social contribution and contribution to reducing social deficits) are made only outcome of multi-support contract, then they are executed each year on contracts in euros only. "We will achieve the social deductions each year for the compartment euro contract of life insurance multi-media", it was argued. In this case, it is not really new but revenue from resources "advance", they added.

Tax incentives obsolete

The second measure relates to contracts "caring and responsible" health insurance, covering virtually all of the supplementary cover.They have since their launch in 2005 of a tax exemption on insurance agreements. "This exemption would allow these contracts to take an important place. But it is a success, so there is no need for a tax incentive very strong, "argued the entourage of Christine Lagarde."These contracts will therefore be subject to tax on insurance contracts, but at a reduced rate of 3.5% instead of the standard rate of seven per cent," he said.

The final measure focuses on the taxation of the "reserve accumulation" that insurers are required to be to smooth fluctuations in interest rates.

Each of these three measures should yield about one billion euros in revenues in 2011.

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As every summer festivals in numbers on the territory have not failed to meet a great public success. However, despite attendance that does not deny, the contraction of budgets of local cultural events to make this worthwhile. For the vast majority of them are "small joint ventures", in the words of Emmanuel Negrier, author of "Public Festivals, tapped in large part by public funds.

According to a study by France festivals, grants from these mainly involved local average for 51% of the resources of these events. "The festivals of contemporary music, which developed later than others, however, are less dependent," says Emmanuel Negrier.To give an example of the financial stability of a festival of medium size, the budget of Auvers-sur-Oise is broken down as follows: 44% public funding, 23% from sponsorship or partnerships, and 33% of own revenue, notably from the ticket.

The counties, which face increasing social spending, have generally lowered their subsidies by 10%. This is the case in Rock en Seine, which begins this Friday with the envelope from the general council of Hauts-de-Seine is dropped from 300,000 euros to 265,000 euros on a total budget of 5 million. "The trend is clearly down government subsidies. In addition to the crisis, the reform of local finances led to a narrowing of the capacity of local authorities to act in the field of culture, "says Emmanuel Negrier. A feeling also experienced Lorient Inter-Celtic Festival."Apart from agreements concluded in three years, we enjoy public support dropped from 10% to 20%. In total, they nevertheless represent 35% of our budget, "says there is no fax payday loan.

Increased use of patronage

What, therefore, to overcome this shortfall? There are really only two main levers on which play to increase revenue: the price of tickets and the development of sponsorship. While the increase in ticket prices is a limited instrument which undermines the availability of a diverse public festivals, many events, however, attempt to play the role of patronage. This is for example the case of Inter-Celtic Festival Lorient or that of Annecy.The Crescendo Festival of Annecy has indeed experienced a revival this year thanks to the donation of 500,000 euros a Russian businessman, Andrei Valeriyevich Cheglakov. "The only thing Andrei Valeriyevich Cheglakov wait in return is the recognition by the Mayor of Annecy festival of this size that has an interest in the city," said Pascal Escande, festival director. This case, however, is very exceptional, "he concedes himself.

Especially in times of crisis, it also becomes more difficult to find private funds. While the vast majority of companies have retained last year an almost identical level of funding, "they tend to focus their actions and be more attentive to their consistency," said Beatrice Menanteau, director of Admical , an association that promotes corporate philanthropy.Above all, it is currently unthinkable in France private funds to replace grants: "In Spain, some festivals are completely private. But their benefits are not equivalent to those of French festivals. Neither stimulation of cultural creation, or access to culture to a diverse audience are possible without the help of communities, "argues Emmanuel Negrier.

The CAC 40 is a little break after a meeting at which bounce saw the benchmark index of Paris close to over 3%. On Friday, the markets begin the session on a slight decline from 0.13% to 3595.66 points. The waiting game surrounding the publication of results of stress tests of European banks is felt. Already, the euro back a bit against the dollar at 1.2889 dollars around 9:00.

Yesterday, U.S. markets have done a great meeting Thursday at which time the Dow has gained almost 2%. U.S. markets relatively insensitive to the announcement of a surprise increase in weekly unemployment registrations have been worn by the overall business results above consensus.

In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the session looks very calm.No major indicator is expected in the United States.

In France, the French household consumption of manufactured goods fell 1.4% in June after the previous month was supported by purchases of televisions before the World Cup, according to figures published by INSEE before the opening markets. Throughout the second quarter, it shows a decrease of 0.9% after falling 1.9% on the first three months of the year. Analysts on average expected a rise of 0.2% in June

The Germans will unveil their Ifo business climate.

TF1 reviewing its objectives to increase

The stress test, however, occupy the banking sector.BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Natixis (BPCE) or Dexia should respond.

Moreover, the markets will again this session to analyze several quarterly publications:

TF1 announced before market sales ad up 11% in the first semester for a total turnover of 1.28 billion euros, above the consensus. Net income group share was 74 million euros over the period. The objectives are significantly revised upward with a turnover in 2010 rose by 7% instead of 4%.

STMicroelectronics reported Thursday a profit above expectations at 18 cents per share with a turnover up 27% to 2.53 billion. Analysts on average expected a profit of 14 cents per share and a turnover of 2.513 billion dollars.

Pernod Ricard noted Thursday its annual forecast for operating profit thanks to the improved economic environment and its position in emerging markets. Its turnover in 2009-2010 emerged, up 2% on a comparable basis.

Ubisoft has released a turnover up 94% in the first quarter of 2010-2011, to 161 million euros and confirmed its objective of a provisional turnover of 160 million for the remainder of the year.

BioAlliance Pharma has announced a record turnover of 15.2 million euros in the second quarter against 1.5 million a year earlier, after recording in April in the United States Loramyc, light treatment of fungal infections of the mouth patients with cancer or AIDS.

As for ads, Alstom said it had won contracts valued at about 450 million euros for the construction of two units for a combined cycle power plant India.

Legrand announced Thursday a takeover offer for Indo Asian Switchgear India, where he produced nearly 4% of its annual turnover after the acquisition. Indo Asian Switchgea aims for 2010 sales of more than 35 million euros.

Maurel and Prom announced Thursday it had increased to approximately 70 million euros the amount of its issuance of Oceanes five years following the year's total allotment option.

The sixteen capitals of the euro will, on Monday at the Eurogroup, the finishing touches to 'ease' of 750 billion euros, which must guarantee the eventual bailout of states at the edge of bankruptcy, according to sources placed at heart of the discussion. Germany finally helped a lot by going beyond the limits imposed it seemed, an EU official confirmed Friday: "Everything will be operational within a few weeks."

The actual launch of the European Facility for Financial Stability (FESF) could bolster the euro and calm the markets, hitherto little comfort from the start of construction decided in an emergency on May 10 last. The issues of risk sharing and security ultimately raised by the Merkel government, have long hindered the development. But it was Berlin came the answer.The debate could end Monday with the appointment of the Chairman of the facility, on the occasion of the Eurogroup in Luxembourg.

The FESF, intergovernmental organization and incorporated in Luxembourg, will have a board with decision unanimously. This leaves a veto in Berlin and other capital of the euro. In theory, the decision to help a country asphyxiated as well as the amount of the guarantee and / or loan will be made once and for all, as desired by France.

Loans conditioned

In practice, using the FESF will be conditioned to multi-year plans for fiscal consolidation. They require, as for Greece, a regular monitoring of progress, terms of appointment, or even a questioning of the programmed disbursements. Germany promises to be challenging at every turn.

The European facility can guarantee or provide up to 440 billion euros of bonds or loans, equivalent to 4% of GDP in the euro area. The IMF and the European Commission will provide the additional 60 billion euros for the Commission and up to 250 billion euros for the IMF.

Its creators plan to combine two modes of action: either a common security for borrowings granted by the State in difficulty or of loans granted to the State FESF in trouble after borrowing common in international markets.

Triple A

In both cases, the sixteen are issued by the prestigious AAA rating agencies and the interest rate is more favorable. The first method is the simplest and fastest. The second, which resembles a European issue, reinforces the coloration Community commitment."This looks like a Euro-issue, even if it remains politically difficult to use the term," says the European official, in an allusion to the reluctance of Berlin.

In addition, the guarantee given by each signatory is not integral, unlike a conventional transmission. It is limited to 120% of the initial commitment of each capital. These 20 points are margin solidarity efforts made by the Merkel government. They also mean that Germany would not pay off the entire bill, even in the unlikely scenario where all partners would collapse one after the other.

The concern is strongest on Wall Street. While the Greek parliament adopted the austerity measures required to pay using the EU and the IMF, the American financial markets plunge. The Dow Jones fall at the close of 3.21% to 10,520.32 points, the Nasdaq lost 3.44% to 2319.64 points and the S & P 500 3.24% cowardly to 1128 points.During the session, the markets have even panicked: the Dow Jones has suffered a historic collapse of 9% and the Nasdaq is up 8.85%! But according to CNBC, a single error in a large trading company was behind the short dip seen between 14 hours and 15 hours …

Strengthening investor panic, the spokesman for the White House said the reforms, as austerity plan imposed in Greece were "important" but they "take time".

"The situation in Europe has a low potential impact on the U.S. recovery. But this remains an important market for import and export for many countries and the euro is the second currency of international transactions, "says Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist at Davidson Cos.."We all know that we also have budget problems and deficit," warns Jay Suskind of Duncan-Williams, implying that the United States themselves might be affected.

Again, fears of contagion go before the national indicators. However, good news came on the employment front. Entries weekly unemployment declined in the United States during the first week in May, against 444,000 451,000 the previous week, according to the Department of Labor. Economists had expected jobless claims averaged 440,000.

In addition, productivity gains of U.S. companies have been higher than expected first quarter. Productivity increased 3.6% over the fourth quarter, while analysts expected an increase of 2.5%.

The euro plunged again

The euro sank under $ 1.26 for the first time since March 2009. The European currency, which was still worth $ 1.33 last Friday, has broken the symbolic threshold into this new 20:45.

Investors were disappointed by the decision of the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged, while some wanted the European monetary authority takes steps to stem a possible contagion of the Greek debt to other countries the euro area paydayloans.

And the fences in the bright red of the European markets do not help matters.

Oil tumbles

Oil prices fell for the third straight session Thursday in New York.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery ended at 77.11 dollars, down from 2.86 dollars the previous day. Over the past three sessions, he accumulated a dip 9.08 dollars, or 10.5%.

"This is entirely due to macroeconomic concerns," said Ellis Eckland held, independent analyst. "The debt crisis in Europe would clearly be negative for economic recovery in the world, especially in Europe."

Freddie Mac and distributors troubled markets

On the side of values, Freddie Mac has asked yesterday in federal funding additional $ 10.6 billion the U.S. Treasury. At the end of 2008, the Treasury has pledged to cover an unlimited losses for Freddie and Fannie until 2012. This new application brings to more than $ 61.3 billion total spent on federal aid to rescue Freddie Mac.In trading, the shares drop 6.24% to $ 1.34.

Retailers Costco Wholesale Corp. and Gap reported sales difficult last month, up just 0.5% for the first and were down 3% for the second comparable basis. Consequence: their respective securities fell by 3.86% to 58.03 dollars and 7.17% to 22.91 dollars.

In their wake, Target was down 1.86% after publishing sales down 5.9% in April against 2.3% expected by the markets.

The telecom equipment maker, JDS Uniphase (-20.15% 10.94 dollars) has announced a loss of 11.9 million (101.7 million against last year). The sales were above expectations at 332.3 million dollars.The company said stronger growth in its order book for 2 years in the first quarter

The security software vendor Symantec (+1.72% to 16.53 dollars) announced a profit of 184 million dollars and the video game publisher, THQ, significantly reduced its losses to 10.4 million against a deficit of nearly $ 100 million last year.

The CBS group (-4.49% at 14.88 dollars) recorded a loss of posting $ 26.2 million for a turnover of 3.16 billion.

Jean-Louis Dumas in June 2001. Photo credits: AFP

The World Bank took into account the weight of so-called "developing and transition economies" in the global economy by proposing to increase their voting rights in the institution, as requested in September by the G20, transferring at least 3% of the votes of advanced countries to others.

The 186 shareholder countries of the World Bank have agreed, after the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, for a capital increase – the first in 20 years – 3.5 billion ($ 2.6 billion), in addition to which only the developing countries could add 1.6 billion dollars that will allow them to increase their voting rights.

"The approval of this change on voting rights is crucial for the legitimacy of the bank," said World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

China will hold 4.42% shares

Ultimately, it is 3.13% of rights that should be taken from one side and granted each other, allowing developing countries to hold 47.19% of the voting rights of the World Bank.

Among the big winners (r) evolution – the issue of transfers of votes is the subject of debate for several years – China, whose rights to vote from 2.77% to 4.42%, to climbed to third place in the countries most represented, after the United States (15.85%) and Japan (6.84% against 7.62% previously) electronic check payday advance.

"This represents an important step towards a new balance between developed and developing countries" reacted Chinese Finance Minister Xie Xuren was quoted by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Brazil (2.06% to 2.24%) or India (2.77% to 2.91%), have also benefited from this review, for example at the expense of France, whose share was down by 4.17% to 3.75%. Ditto for Great Britain.Germany now holds 4% of the votes, against 4.35% previously.

Faster, more flexible

The Development Committee of the Board of Governors also approved an increase of 86.2 billion dollars of capital to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

"The additional capital can be used to create jobs and protect the most vulnerable through investments in infrastructure in small and medium enterprises and social safety nets," said the head of the institution .

The committee was in favor of the new Bank strategy for post-crisis and "a set of sweeping reforms to make the Bank faster, more flexible, making it more accountable for its actions" .

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The index futures point to a slightly higher opening of U.S. markets. Shortly before the opening of Wall Street, about 12:00 am Paris time, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, progressed from 0.21% to 1186.20 points from 0.15% to 1983 points.

Despite an increase in enrollment weekly unemployment and a shrinking numbers of consumer credit, U.S. investors appear to have courage and choose again, these days, for optimism. They show little worried, finally re-emerging doubts about the ability of Greece to honor its debts. Perhaps partly because, unlike the French or German banks, U.S. banks are not exposed directly to the crisis in Greece.Banks also suspected for 18 of them have, over the last 5 quarters, artificially reduced their debt just before the end of the quarter.

Today's meeting should be calm, however, no new important indicator being waited until Monday, except on Friday, the numbers of U.S. wholesalers' inventories for February, which will be released this afternoon around 16:00 .

Yesterday, while European stock markets in the green-mountain this morning showed an average decrease of 1% of their stars indices, the Dow Jones closed 0.3% awarded in the S & P 500 also, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.2%. One way to greet the rise, much higher than expected, sales of major U.S. retailers: Index by Thomson Reuters, they rose in March by 9.1% against 6.3% expected, the highest since 2000.Taking advantage of some better weather, 28 distributors have seen their turnover increase by over 9% a year, a further sign of improving consumer confidence. Gap saw its turnover grow by 11% against 3.7% expected and Kohl's, 22.5% against 12.4% expected. In the luxury, Nordstrom posted sales up +16.8%.

These values should continue to lead the coast on Friday, and Apple, which yesterday announced a new version of its operating system for the iPhone and iPad, and sales 450 000 iPad since Saturday.

Also to follow, the aviation sector, led from the rumors of merger between U.S. Airways companies (+10.7% at closing) and United Airlines (6.8% at closing), Thursday, at the New York Stock Exchange.UAL (6.75% to 20.23 dollars), parent of United Airlines, is in talks with U.S. Airways (10.70% to 7.55 dollars) for a combination that would create the One of the largest airlines in the world, according to The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. This operation would be carried out no exchange of shares.

China's ambitions to Tiffany, who wants to spend ten to thirty five the number of stores across the Rising Sun could give impetus to the value.

The California oil company Chevron (0.37% to 77.66 dollars a barrel) announced yesterday the results on the first quarter of 2010 as the fourth best in 2009. The group takes advantage of the rising oil prices and a possible improvement in its refining margins.The major U.S. must publish its accounts on April 30.

In the pharmacy, the distributor McKesson Corp. said it will sell its Asia Pacific unit, which provides health services through telephone and Internet, Medibank Private Limited. Giant Australian health services and insurance.

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