The year 2011 should be black for the airlines. In any case, predicted that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Monday. At the annual meeting of the association in Singapore, it has halved its earnings estimates for companies this year. "Natural disasters in Japan, unrest in the Middle East and Africa, plus the sharp rise in oil prices, slashed profit forecasts for the sector, to 4 billion U.S. dollars," and said IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani.

This estimate of 4 billion is a drop of 78% compared to profits of $ 18 billion achieved in 2010, year of strong recovery for the airline after the economic crisis.Margins would amount to only 0.7% and a forecast turnover of 598 billion dollars.

A barrel is too expensive

In early March, IATA still evaluating the benefits to 8.6 billion. But it was just before the earthquake, followed by a tsunami and the nuclear disaster Fukushima, Japan. This drama series was first led to a suppression of flights to Japan and then a slow recovery for many companies. But the Japanese air transport market, valued at 44.4 billion euros, representing 6.5% of world traffic and 10% of turnover in the sector. Furthermore, Japan provides 3-4% of world production of kerosene, which is exported to Asia. "Part of that refining capacity has been lost due to damage caused by the earthquake," says the association.

Rising oil prices is just one of the main concerns of IATA.The Japanese crisis was grafted to increased tensions in the Arab world instant personal loans guaranteed. Libyan oil production, usually by 1.6 million barrels per day, is almost stopped due to fighting. And despite the increase in output of major oil-exporting countries, the markets fear a shortage. In April, a barrel of Brent North Sea thus came to London to 124.45 dollars, the highest since Aug. 4, 2008, while in New York, a barrel of light sweet crude " (WTI) rose to 111.68 dollars, the highest since September 2008.

Falling prices in May has also been only temporary because prices, reinforced by a weak dollar, have already gone back up.At the beginning of June, a barrel of light sweet crude "evolves around $ 100 while that of Brent North Sea worth $ 115.

Suspicious, IATA has reassessed its estimate of 15% for the average price of a barrel of Brent crude for the whole year, to $ 110 against 96 previously. The fuel bill for all airlines and will rise by 10 billion to 176 billion. "Fuel now represents almost 30% of the cost of air transport, more than double the 13% from 2001, according to the association. "The efficiency gains achieved during the past decade and improving economic conditions help offset the high cost of oil, but with limited margins to 0.7%, this leaves little protection against possible shocks, she says.

ALSO READ:

"The air traffic growth slows

"Japan and the Arab revolt: the affected air

"SPECIAL – Japan devastated

"SPECIAL – Arab Revolts

Keeping promises cons of VAT at 5.5%. Two years after signing a first contract between the restaurant and the government, and a mixed picture, professionals have made new commitments for the next four years.

Unsurprisingly, efforts will focus on employment. At the meeting held Thursday with the government, restaurateurs have promised to create 20,000 jobs annually by July 2015, or 80,000 jobs. They also pledged to improve learning and increase their investment of 25% to bring it to 5 billion euros in four years. Objectives labeled as "ambitious" by the Secretary of State for Consumer Affairs, Frederic Lefebvre, yet precarious.Conservators have warned the Government that a return to the VAT increase beyond 5.5% would free them of these obligations.

Consumers should not expect however to reap the benefits of lower taxation credit reports free. Conservators have preferred to remain cautious on this point for fear of receiving new criticism. Last year, the Court of Auditors had indeed criticized the lack of repercussions on the tax benefit customers. According to his calculations the dividend would have been only 2.15% instead of the 3% expected.

On Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has decided against another reduced rate of VAT. In his report on France, "the application of standard VAT rates to expenditures for maintenance and renovation" for housing, ie 19.6% and not 5.5% as at present.

ALSO READ:

"The restaurateurs agree to create jobs

"Renovation: more than 5.5% VAT (OECD)

The list of seven is finally ready. On Friday, the G20 meeting in Washington, have managed to agree on the seven countries whose impact on global economic imbalances are greatest. They are members of the old G5 70s: the United States, France, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom, enmeshed in two powerful emerging economies, China and India .

These countries, which each weigh more than 4% of the global economy, "are clearly more systemic," according to the French Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, who chaired the meeting. They will therefore be a "thorough assessment" of their finances to reduce the imbalances they create in the world.More concretely, the G20 will analyze the changes since 1990 and projections until 2015, several variables including their public finances, external accounts, savings and private sector debt.

Towards a global growth "balanced"

The objective of this approach is to deliver recommendations to follow for these countries. For the U.S., it will thus reduce the triple deficit, commercial and household savings. For China, it will move from growth to export-led growth fueled by domestic demand. Countries richly endowed with natural resources should also provide impetus to consumption.

On the part of capital flows in the international monetary system, emerging requested a strict evaluation of countries that are increasing the global money supply, as the United States or Japan.More broadly, the G20 also undertake to give more reliable figures and recent state of their oil production if they have one, or their stocks.

"It was a meeting of G20 subsided very, very constructive", welcomed the governor of the Banque de France, Christian Noyer. The G20 now hopes to finger the target at the summit in Pittsburgh in 2009: economic growth "strong, sustainable and balanced" for the world. A meeting of G20 finance on development issues, is scheduled for Washington in the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in late September.

ALSO READ:

"The world economy is still" in crisis "

The industry never stops falling. In ten years it has destroyed 750,000 jobs and the crisis that France has suffered since 2008 further accelerated the process: 55% of them were wiped out on the last two years alone!

According to a recent note to the Treasury Department, the weight of industry rose from 24 to 14% in GDP in a quarter century. Three factors explain this decline "that affects all economies." First, the search for greater efficiency has led to a growing reliance on outsourcing of part of industrial activities (cleaning, accounting, security …) to the tertiary sector. "A simple transfer of jobs to formerly industrial services, including acting, without really changing their content," says Bercy. Reflux would be to relativize … 70% of temporary jobs created in 2010 and have affected the industry.So that if you reassign the interim by business, industry 1.9% did not destroy jobs in 2010, but has created 0.6%.

80,000 hires per year

Second, nearly 30% of job losses that occurred since the early 2000s would be linked to productivity gains in the economy payday loan. Third, globalization and international competition on labor costs may also account for nearly 30% of industrial job losses between 2000 and 2007.

And yet, French industry is not dead. If she suffers from a problem of competitiveness, it still employs 3 million employees and produces 350 billion in sales through its technology companies. Better still, it recruits.The UIMM (metal), its largest component, plans to hire 80,000 people a year by 2015, half of young people.

This is in part "to offset the deficit picture plaguing activity among the population and break down some shots too often conveyed" the Industry Week, which begins today, was created. Open days, workshops discovery in schools, seminars and round tables, exhibitions … The goal is to give another image of the industry to attract young people into trades still promising.

ALSO READ:

"INTERVIEW – Saint-Geours:" The industry is no longer Zola! "

The first and last time that Ford had done was in 1998. So for the second time in March, the American manufacturer steals the number one spot in auto sales in the U.S. by General Motors. Last month, Ford has indeed increased by 19.2% of sales against just 9.6% for GM. While the first surprising analysts who had forecast an increase of 14.5%, the second missed the consensus (+10.8%).

In total last month, Ford has passed 212,777 vehicles against 206,621 for GM. According to the website specializing in automotive Edmunds.com, "Ford increased its incentives while other manufacturers have lowered in March, particularly GM."

Ford also benefited from higher crude oil that followed the unrest in the Middle East and particularly in Libya. The manufacturer has in effect a compact car offers a lot more solid than its competitor.A major advantage for customers who "helps a lot when oil prices soar," says Edmunds.com.

The automotive market is doing well

The third of the Big Three, Chrysler, retains its position as number three in the U.S. market. Last month, the group saw its sales jump 31% to 121,730 vehicles sold, its best sales since May 2008.

But more than the fight for number one spot, GM prefers to emphasize the good performance of the entire sector. At an analysts' conference, Don Johnson, one of the leaders of manufacturer sales in the U.S. in March, was optimistic for the U.S. car market for the months ahead."There are good signs of improvement thanks to the good unemployment figures on Friday and record corporate profits," he said.

ALSO READ:

"In return, American manufacturers are betting on small cars

While the idea of a simple adjustment of tax on capital is booming, including the Department of Budget, the total suppression of his supporters do not disarm. "If we want to recover the competitiveness of France, we must rid this stupid tax," said Michel Piron, the UMP behind this fall, an amendment – Retoque – ISF and eliminating tax shield. "Correct the ISF is to create a gas plant," said Jean Arthuis, president of the centrist Senate Finance Committee. The two MPs have the opportunity to defend their point of view tonight at the weekly meeting of the Working Group during which Baroin present to elect a majority of the tax study heritage in Europe.

Cap cap

The fund, the ISF raises two major economic problems.At the bottom of the scale, it hits the upper middle classes caught by the housing boom. To solve this handicap, the tracks are not lacking among the principal residence exemption and deleting the first tranche of ISF (790 000 to 1,290,000 euros of assets). At the other end of the chain, the TFR is confiscatory. Households in the last installment (more than 16.5 million property) have their assets taxed at 1.8%, while these assets relate to their best, when it comes to good financial investments, 4 % per annum. "It's what drives so many French very fortunate to leave for Switzerland," says Philippe Bruneau, president of the Circle of tax practitioners.

Aware of this mess, and while the tax shield will disappear, Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur UMP budget to the Assembly, proposed as a solution to increase the cap of the ISF.Today, the sum of the ISF, the tax on income and payroll taxes must not exceed 85% of the income of the debtor. It is therefore a kind of shield, but only reduces the bill ISF (and not that of all taxes). Especially since 1996 and the Juppe government, the cap itself is limited: it can not reduce by more than 50% to pay the ISF.

Gilles Carrez proposes to reduce the cap to 70% of revenue and eliminate the "cap on cap. An idea that Baroin seen favorably. "The tax exiles began with the cap ceiling Juppe. Ending it would be a good thing. But this is not enough. It should also reduce the rate of ISF, "said Philippe Bruneau. Or remove the tax on capital.

The executive has not decided. And the advocates of simple deletion of the ISF have support.Christine Lagarde, Minister of Economy, argued Monday in The Tribune for a "simple, so pretty radical."

This time, the Spanish government seems determined to take the bull by the horns. Having downplayed for months the difficulties that struggling fourth of its banking system, Madrid was ready to go to partly nationalize some savings if that became necessary.

This change of foot, compared with the soothing speech given so far by the Bank of Spain, due to the pressure put by the European Commission, and especially by the European Central Bank, which saw its funding boost for Spanish lenders. The aim is to avoid the scenario in Ireland. Late last year, Ireland's sick banks had to accept an aid of 85 billion euros.

The parallel is not trivial: whether in Ireland or Spain, the housing crisis is eating away at the balance sheet of credit institutions.To convince that the situation of Spanish savings banks has nothing to do with the Anglo Irish Bank and Allied Irish Banks others, Madrid will beef up its rescue plan. In particular, the Spanish government plans to encourage "cajas" to open their capital to investors through a possible initial public offering to cover their capital needs. If it proved impossible to attract foreign capital, the Fund for orderly restructuring of banks (FROB) is willing to "take a stake on a temporary basis." The formula, however, does not fool anyone: at this stage, investors are not lining up. The fund JC Flowers, specializes in turning financial institutions, chose to abandon an investment project.

The warning from Fitch

Much work has been restructuring operations in recent months.Under the leadership of the Bank of Spain, the cajas have started a consolidation which has limited their number from 45 in 2009-17 no teletrack payday loans. "This screening technique reduces the grip of local governments," says an expert. Operational side, the savings will have to close between 20 and 25% of their agencies and reduce their workforce by 15% on average.

During this first phase of restructuring, Frob has injected 11.6 billion euros of capital into new entities. Remains to be seen how many are missing. While the Wall Street Journal had an invoice raised from 30 to 80 billion euros, Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance, said the reality was "very far" from those amounts. UK broker Evolution him, amounted to 142 billion, 83 billion for the cajas, impairment losses on future loans to developers and other SMEs whose activities are often related to construction.Even Bankinter – which Crédit Agricole owns 20% – which has little exposure to real estate professionals, has seen its profits plunge last year.

Madrid, ultimately, has promised more transparency with the publication by the end of real estate commitments. The government will decide there and then create an entity – a "bad bank" – to use the impaired assets, as in Ireland? Everything seems still open. The rating agency Fitch has called for its part, yesterday Spain to establish a "credible bank restructuring plan," while stressing that the country score, which has a stable outlook, could be lowered if the recapitalization cost more than expected.

ALSO READ:

"Spain: Zapatero targets markets

"Spain in the maelstrom of financial crisis

"Madrid put on Beijing to repurchase its debt

The controversy has increased the ceiling on Friday on unemployment benefits managers, an idea launched Thursday by Pierre Mehaignerie, the UMP president of the Social Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, in an interview published on lefigaro.fr. The most virulent reaction came from the CFE-CGC. "There is no question of wasting our time with false good idea to limit who imagine in time, restrict or limit unemployment compensation on the grounds that it would promote more rapid reintegration into employment," said its chairman Bernard Van Craeynest. For the owner of the plant managers, unemployment compensation is "an insurance mechanism in which everyone contributes according to his salary and compensation is based on the injury he suffered" and that it is unimaginable to cap the reimbursement claims.As "for auto insurance," he says.

The idea of capping executive benefits is not new, since France is one country that offer the best conditions for compensation to the unemployed who were receiving a very high income. A framework for under 50, who has contributed for two years in its 28 months of activity and who had a monthly salary higher than 11,540 euros gross, so is certain to receive an allowance of 6,764 euros gross per month for two years. Or, after social security deductions, a check of nearly 6,000 euros every month! And if over 50 years – which is often the case at this level of compensation – the compensation period is extended to three years. By comparison, an unemployed German may touch 2215 euros per month for two years or, worse, 1073 euros for one year if he is Italian.Nothing to do so.

A ceiling of 3000 euros

The suggestion of the 4th vice-president of the UMP will have at least had the merit to highlight this feature of the French regime. "Pierre Mehaignerie raises a real problem that could encourage the social partners to be more imaginative" in the renegotiation of the agreement unemployment insurance that starts Jan. 24, admits it in the entourage of the head of the state. "The idea to release additional resources for youth employment is not so preposterous," abounds near Xavier Bertrand, Minister of Labour."Let us negotiate the social partners are aware of their responsibilities," they replied Lawrence Berger, the leader of the delegation CFDT, which he considers "Pierre Mehaignerie legitimate to speak", asks the policies do not encroaching on their field of negotiations.

Some unionists, however, agree on condition of anonymity that the plane frames allowances may be an idea to dig. "Why not, if it creates new rights for the other job," judge and a negotiator. A plant would even asked Unedic quantify the resources released if the ceiling was lowered to 3000 and 4000 euros … The reason? Few unemployed would suffer.Better, more "symbolic" – Unedic refuses to communicate – in view of the average amount of unemployment compensation (1111 euros gross per month), their average length of membership (10 months) and also the average wage French (1580 euros per month).

ALSO READ:

"Méhaignerie wants to reduce unemployment

In the absence of changes in shareholders, Quick is renewed to continue to grow. The fast food chain should in fact remain for several years in the bosom of QUALIUM (formerly CDC Investment). The investment fund, advised by Rothschild, had considered a sale of assets last spring.

But the price demanded, around 900 million euros, was deemed excessive by the highly prospective purchasers, especially the most motivated of them, the American KKR.QUALIUM, which owns Quick since 2007, could continue to drive the development of the chain for a further period of three years, hoping to create more appetite when it will represent the market.

In 2010, turnover of 481 restaurants in the brand (including 371 in France) should exceed, according to management, 1 billion euros, up 6% organically and 11% taking into account openings: Quick has opened 24 restaurants (including 15 in France), but eight have closed (including 3 in France). Management ensure that the brand is gaining ground in France, its main market. The fast food sector is spared by the economic crisis.According to the firm Gira Council, its growth may indeed reach 7% in 2010, after 6% in 2008 and 9% last year.

In this context, operating income of Quick him could jump by nearly 25% and approaching 100 million. That would value the brand at 870 million euros, if one takes as reference the transfer of Courtepaille redeemed by mid-December Foundations Capital for 245 million euros.

Offensive in Russia

To restore the appetite for future investors, Quick focuses on her winning new customers. For Christmas, the company has released a burger with foie gras, sold 5 euros in a limited edition of 17 to 19 December. After the controversy caused by the launch of a halal in 22 of its restaurants, the company continues to be noticed where its customers do not wait.Objective: to talk about the brand and become a true challenger to McDonald's, the leader archidominant first restaurant in France with 1 160 outlets. This year's innovations have doubled compared to last year. New features include a milkshake-covered strawberries Tagada a cheeseburger or organic chicken pieces to share an idea chipée at KFC, the other competitor.

The new boss of Quick, Jacques-Edouard Charret, formerly of Casino, has submitted to a shareholder an ambitious development plan. By 2020, it hopes to double park and up to 1 000 restaurants, doubling sales of the group, and three operating income! 36 openings planned in 2011. The company has set up a joint venture for deployment in Russia with local partner for a builder of shopping centers.

Soon a European International Monetary Fund? Germany would work to draft new European institution which is much like a regional version of the firefighter world public finances, according to the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Berlin would like to propose to its partners in the euro area to create a "European Fund for stability, growth and investment," according to a paper cited by the newspaper.

Berlin has denied that this project reflects the government's position. This document was "not subject to ministry officials, nor endorsed by them, and the ideas it contains do not reflect in any way the position of the Ministry of Finance or the federal government," insisted the door Ministry spokesman.Still, the German Minister of Economy, Rainer Bruederle said Thursday in a statement that "the fallback mechanism will exist in the direction of a European Monetary Fund. (…) There must be question of independence, individual responsibility, transparency and foremost the possibility of sanctions for poor performers of the euro. "

Informal meeting

On Thursday, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde will meet informally in the early afternoon near Strasbourg with his German counterpart Woflgang Schäuble, who is on vacation. "The EU should not only look at the budgets, but also monitor how economies grow," said Christine Lagarde at the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, and reiterated its preference for a European economic government."We're at a stage (of European negotiations, Ed), where each country sets its vision on the table," says one at Bercy, "and there's currently nothing specific."

According to the draft released by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, the struggling states could use the funds to refinance their debt in case of emergency. "No limit" amount. Counterparties would be severe: the beleaguered government should provide guarantees in exchange as reserves in gold or shares in public companies. This institution would take its place alongside the European Central Bank. Like the latter, it would be politically independent. This project serves as an alternative to European bonds in particular championed by Luxembourg and Italy, but which Germany and France opposed.

"The German interest for stability"

He is "in the national interest" of Germany that the euro area to be consolidated "with all its Member States, it is explained in the paper cited by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Monetary union is clearly oriented towards the "German interest for stability," is said. This is the "consideration" for Germany to play its role of "anchor stabilizer" within the zone.

Rainer Bruederle is skeptical about him. "Such a European economic government is not the right project. Whoever currently looking for a European economic government is working on a bad site, "he said bluntly. Finance ministers from the euro zone must meet in January. The markets were disappointed by the meager results at the last meeting of the Eurogroup, in mid-December.

ALSO READ:

"SPECIAL – Europe, States face bankruptcy

The 27 reinforce the defense of the euro

"BLOG – The debate on European bonds rose anyway