A cold shower. Francois Hollande and Jean-Marc Ayrault, the new duo at the head of the executive, could not begin their terms with worse prospects on the employment front. According to the Bureau of Unedic, the unemployment insurance system – that can not be accused of anti-hollandisme since it is composed, for half, representatives of trade unions – the number of registered unemployed in Class A (no activity) should swell to 178,500 in 2012 and then to 128,300 next year. A total of 306,800 additional people in two years, an increase of 10.6% over current levels.

This would be a disaster for the head of state who is committed during the campaign to reverse the unemployment curve, within one year after his election. To revise its forecast of 2012 and first establish financial and employment projections for 2013, services Unedic have incorporated into their models – reliable, in general – the new growth assumptions adopted by the consensus of economists (+ 0 , 3% and +1% of GDP for the current year and the next).

Scenario B more positive

If you look at job seekers who exercised reduced activity (categories B and C), increasing the total number of unemployed in the Hexagon will be even higher than 110,200, representing an increase of 9.7% in two years. Main explanation: the employment should fall further to 91,300 units in two years, bringing to nearly 300,000 the number of jobs destroyed in the Hexagon on the equivalent of a seven-year term. These poor forecasts, if realized, would further aggravate a little hole Unedic whose accumulated deficit frôlerait 18.2 billion euros end 2013. A record.

The new president and his prime minister, however, will find two tiny glimmers of hope in the fifteen pages of notes prediction Unedic. First, the deficit expected in late 2012 was revised downwards (from 1.3 billion euros) compared to recent estimates, established mid-January because of poor advance of revenues and expenditures. Second, the unemployment insurance system has also established a scenario B if growth would be higher in 2012 and 2013 – the bet made by Francois Hollande with the policies he wants to implement.  

If the GDP grew by 0.7% this year and 1.4% in 2013, the rising number of unemployed in Class A would be reduced to 169,200 over two years (half that in the central hypothesis) and the economy would begin to create jobs in 2013, with a positive balance of about 53,300 jobs by the end of next year.

The impact on the finances of Unedic would be immediate: the debt would be reduced to 17.2 billion at end 2013, one billion less than the central scenario. A completely different horizon.

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Angela Merkel to hold the said it is preparing to receive the head of state in Europe who feel most attached to the euro. If it should remain a single country in the single currency – strange paradox – it would be France. While London bookmakers have stopped betting on an output of Greece, both in their likelihood seems strong (4 against 1), France is the country where the probability of abandonment of the single currency seems most low, with a score of 20 against 1. Our risk of secession is smaller than that of Germany (14/1) and a fortiori of Spain (12/1).

Without being scientific opinion of the bookmakers perfectly expresses the historical reality. It was François Mitterrand, who had pressured Kohl to waive its Deutsche Mark, symbol of German success, and not vice versa. And now the fear of Germany going it alone is not negligible.

The Judgment of Solomon

This is certainly not an asset but to enter a negotiation being as attached to the object of bargaining. In the judgment of Solomon, the true mother would rather give up her child rather than see it cut in half as we offered him. Lionel Jospin had experienced to his cost in June 1997, when he requested a trustee appoint a growth component in the Stability Pact. This was done in terms of the Treaty of Amsterdam – the city from the top – where you added "and growth", a mere rhetorical flourish. And a few months later, when a new record for employment in Luxembourg, the "socialist left" vain declare that "social Europe deserves a euro crisis," the threat was empty guaranteed cash advance.

This time the chances of reaching a "compromise" in the words of Pierre Moscovici, the campaign manager Francois Hollande, are much greater. Unlike the summer of 1997 where she had already begun a recovery, the European economy is in recession. Face a fundamental problem that it does not deny, Angela Merkel has also taken the lead. Of the six points it offers (see above) are the "projects bonds" financing investment projects. The kinship is more than semantics with the "Eurobonds", aimed at pooling, in part, public debts … and that excludes Berlin.

In the French camp, Michel Sapin, a bright future ministry, just recognized the dangers of renewed worsening deficits and debt. This concession to the Chancellor will she meet up at any price schedule of deficit reduction, or do we give to the freeze?

At stake is the reputation of a "Holland, Roosevelt again for Europe", the socialist economist Thomas Piketty, apostle of tax benefits, strives to accredit Urbi et Orbi. But do not forget that New Deal also includes structural reforms. This component is part of the negotiation that engages in Europe, as evidenced by the fact-finding mission that has just visited Brussels to Paris, as well as in eleven other European economies face obvious problems of competitiveness. Its findings will be formally presented on May 30

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Since Friday, the plant Fralib is occupied by its employees. A situation that is denounced by the president of Unilever France, Bruno Witvoët. "This is unacceptable in a constitutional state, says in an interview in Paris-Today-in-France. Such a coup with hooded individuals armed with baseball bats and batons, it is not of union action, it's a commando! ". The boss of Unilever France claiming the expulsion "immediate and prompt action with law enforcement" employees, has also filed a complaint for "physical threats" from the police. "From fabrications," Olivier replied Leberquier, CGT union. According to the police of Aubagne, intervened at the scene, there would have been no collision.

"Holland must keep its promises"

"Closing a plant is always a very difficult decision, Bruno recognizes Witvoët. But in some cases – including tea bags – we have overcapacity. This is justified in stopping this site ". He said Unilever has taken responsibility in the case of employees of Fralib, accepting "to add additional resources for the revitalization of the local employment" as required by justice. "Funds for creating new jobs has increased from 1 to 1.5 million euros" and "each dismissed employee is entitled to an internal transfer, pay the same conditions, in one of six other plants in France , "he said.

This new twist, the 592nd day of the conflict comes as 80 of the 103 employees still struggle, of 182 initially received their letter of dismissal. At the same time, a moving company came to do a quote on the site, and management proposed the CGT to move out of its local business, or in organizing the escorted access, for reasons of safety concerns, dismantling machinery. A scenario rejected by the union, which wants to keep the tool working on site to implement an alternative plan of recovery of activity.

Given this situation, unions are demanding the intervention of Francois Hollande. During the presidential campaign, President-elect said: "Nothing is done, nothing is guaranteed and if victory comes, I will also be at your side, President of the French Republic, to get your site live, had he launched at a meeting of employees Fralib in Paris in February. "The company is now under the control of the CGT and the Netherlands should keep its promises. His election is a ray of hope, "says Olivier Leberquier. The standoff between employees Fralib and its direction is far from over.

 

The French may well have low morale and closely monitor their spending, not about to give up one of their tasty treats: chocolate bars. This is one of the fastest growing segments (7%) on the market for chocolate confectionery, dominated by three heavyweights: Ferrero (Kinder Bueno, Country), Mars (Mars, Twix, Snickers) and Nestlé (KitKat, Lion). "In times of crisis, the French do not want to agree to give up small pleasures available, explains Christophe Bordin, Ferrero France. They arbitrate on other expenses. "Higher prices, less than 2%, due to soaring raw material, nothing changed.

Better growth potential remains high. The French consume on average only three chocolate bars a year, half that of tablets. However, public health campaigns against obesity, especially among children, they have seriously been shadowed. The bars have all but disappeared and fronts of boxes hypermarkets.

Nutrition a key priority

So, most actors, who have given up advertising per hour of after school, have made improving the nutritional profile of their bar one of their warhorses. This is one of the sinews of war fought in this market extremely dominated by Kinder Bueno (Ferrero), the youngest, born just twenty years ago. March, who has made improving his recipe one of the keys of his reconquest of the French market, has pioneered five years ago. There was urgency: mothers had diverted from his bar, which was the first in the French market in 1951, finding it too greasy and disgusting.

After declining the use of saturated fatty acids and fats, March flatly reduces the size of its bar (- 7%). And to inject a little "dream" in his communication, he revived his pub in 1995 and the American imagination of the Wild West, while reviving its historic slogan ("A March, and it goes again") creditreport. Mission accomplished in two years, he won a million new consumers. "Our goal is to become a leader in the segment of chocolate bars," says Thierry Gaillard, president of Mars Chocolat France, whose cult brand is celebrating his eighty years.

Quest for respectability

Even fighting for KitKat (Nestle), one of the most bars sold in the world (17.6 billion in 2010), which in 2008 launched a light version for women ("Senses", 165 calories). Before going out early 2012 "Singles", a single bar to 80 calories.

The battle is fierce. "As this product pulse that are not on the shopping list, the key remains visible in stores and media, based on strong brands," said Thierry Gaillard. Even more than innovation, the "classic" generate most sales. Face Ferrero, who has the largest sales force in the market (400 sales), March 85 vendors hired last year to push its promos. In the agribusiness sector, Ferrero France – who recruited the tennis champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to the pub Kinder Bueno – advertising remains the largest investor with 215 million euros (+8%) in 2011.

In this quest for respectability, chocolate bars have an asset in France: the famous "taste" of children, sacred pause in the Hexagon. On this particular field that Kinder Bueno has succeeded in widening the gap with its competitors. Because it is perceived to be lighter, moms do not hesitate to give their children for their "four hours" instead of biscuits and pastries.

 

It is an exercise that required this year, just days before the presidential election, takes a turn for controversy. The government on Wednesday presented to the finance committees of the Parliament of the stability program years 2012 to 2016. Designed in Brussels, this document describes how France has reduced to zero by 2016 the cumulative deficit of the state of the social security and local authorities. Consolidation that will reduce gradually the weight of public debt to national wealth in 2014.

To balance its accounts, France must find 115 billion. The government has chosen, policy, to focus the effort on spending two thirds (74 billion) and third on revenue (41 billion). This is the roadmap that Nicolas Sarkozy has taken in its election manifesto. "Just focus on revenue, tax advocate hype as some ignoring the impact it would have on growth, is clearly not a political alternative," says Valérie Pécresse, Minister for the Budget, in an allusion to thinly veiled Francois Hollande.

Indeed, the government does not reduce expenses but limit the increase to 0.4% plus inflation, from 2012 to 2016. The 74 billion is savings compared to the natural drift. "The rise in government spending was 0.3% in 2010 and 0% in 2011, the never-seen since 1960. This shows that our target of 0.4% is credible, "says Valérie Pécresse personal loan for poor credit. To reach it, the government will pursue the course of recent years (knowing also that the reforms already enacted will generate even 39 billion savings in 2016): non-replacement of one out of two official journal of programs for lower government spending, freeze state transfers to local, rising Medicare spending limited to 2.5%.

Optimistic growth forecasts

On the revenue side, Bercy believes that tax increases enacted since late 2010 (on the plane niches, rising 7% VAT …) will generate 33 billion in revenues in 2016. It would be only 8 billion to find. Much less optimistic about the performance measures already adopted, the PS 22 billion talks to find and Nicolas Sarkozy accused of hiding tax increases to voters. Both candidates are fishing perhaps assuming a too strong economic growth (1.75% in 2013 for both, 2% from 2014 in the stability program taken up by Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande to 2.25%) . But less growth means less revenue and more social spending.

However, Nicolas Sarkozy, unlike Francois Hollande, said the return to balance a priority, regardless of the growth. Francois Hollande and provides a zero deficit in 2017 alone. "We go out of adjustment in 2016, we take a serious risk, if not more," warned Baroin before the Members of the Finance Committee.

 

Electricity bills and fuel have been salted for the month of February. According to INSEE, household consumption has jumped from 3% in February as a result largely of the "sharp increase" of 11.7% in energy costs over the month. Moreover, "the cold snap would boosted purchases of winter clothing," notes INSEE, which noted a 5.7% rebound in apparel purchases, after a fall on the last two months.

This unexpected buoyancy (the market had forecast a rise in consumption of 0.2%) is unlikely to last. For starters, "we expect a drop in energy consumption in March, the weather being much milder than usual," Analysis Dominique Barbet, an economist at BNP Paribas guaranteed personal loan approval. Spending on "durable goods" (household goods, autos) fell slightly in February (-0.7%).

Especially, the prospects are not good. According to the latest survey of consumer sentiment, they do not plan to make major purchases, likely to support consumption, and therefore French growth. Finally, "stagnating incomes suggests that households will not increase their spending significantly," anticipates Alain Carbon, an economist at Natixis.

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PSG collects records! The Parisian club has made the biggest transfer in buying Argentine Javier Pastore 42 million and the club was the biggest spender of all Ligue 1 last summer by investing over $ 80 million. This winter, PSG has hired three months ago the highest paid coach in France in the person of Carlo Ancelotti paid over $ 6 million per year then the club has spent the most money in Ligue 1 last winter (more than 18 million). Accordingly, in June, the capital club could show, according to Le Parisien, the highest deficit of all clubs of the elite of French football: € 100 million! For the 2011-2012 season, the direction of the PSG is expected to generate 100 million euros in revenue while its expenses are expected to reach 200 million. Half of which are transfers.  

The Parisian club had ancipité mid-season losses of 40 million-which, incidentally is also a record for the Ligue 1. But meanwhile, PSG sacked coach Antoine Kombouare to 4 million, hired a new coach and his staff of half a dozen people, recruited three new players and paid premiums of collective and individual matches.

Germany as a model

Anyway, it would be very bad news if it was confirmed that UEFA will then point at the end of the 2012-2013 season on the accounts of European football clubs. "Clubs must present a cumulative deficit of 45 million euros, said Andrea Traverso, director of financial fair play in UEFA." If this is not the case, the offending clubs face penalties ranging from simple financial penalties up to exclusion from European competitions.  

This perspective does not seem to scare the president of PSG, Nasser al-Kelaïfi, who plans to spend on transfers 100 million euros a year for "five or six years" in an interview with Italian newspaper Gazzetta dello Sport. "I expect a restless summer transfer window next to PSG to do well in the European Cup, but for the transfer markets following the Parisian club will not need to spend much money, says Vincent Chaudel, sports specialist at Kurt Salmon. PSG also must have some stability also sports ". So why is this statement? "The club has an obligation imposed by the results of Qatari shareholders, given the amounts invested in moves, he says. Through this declaration, the President shows other European teams and players who could join him next summer he has the means of its ambitions. "

To offset these significant costs, the Qatari leader expects that the club improves "its revenue marketing, TV rights and ticket sales including" and thus make a profit "within five years." That only the German club Bayern Munich was able to achieve in 2010-2011 with a profit of 1.3 million. In football too, Germany is a model.

 

An agreement, signed last week between the management of Air France and the main pilots' union of the company, the SNPL, already mitigates the impact of future legislation on guaranteed service in the airline, currently before Parliament.

Transposition of the 2008 Act applicable to the SNCF, the text of UMP Eric Diard plans to compel the workers of the company to declare 48 hours in advance. The goal: to inform travelers of disruptions to come, and ultimately, to minimize the effects through the reallocation of non-striking staff.

This second objective is partly compromising the agreement with pilots. According to Liberation, he states that their schedule "is stable [...] in all circumstances and at all times, without exception." This excludes de facto reallocation constraint non-striking staff in case of conflict. It remains permissible on a voluntary basis.

Appease the social climate

The management of Air France denies having given wrongly. "This new agreement ratifies simply clarification of an agreement dating from 2006, which was the subject of a dispute with the pilots," argues a spokeswoman. The company also advance security reasons for refusing to compel non-striking staff to take service if necessary.

But the agreement signed last week is primarily intended to appease a very tense social climate at Air France. Shocked at the beginning of February still a strike, it lies in the necessity of escalating tensions, "without which it knows will fail in the medium term," said Eric Diard.  

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New episode in the folder Veolia Environnement. Its CEO, Mr. Frérot, is on trial. Borloo could indeed take control group of utilities and largest private employer in France. According to Les Echos, hostilities between the former boss of Veolia now head of EDF, and the runner Proglio Antoine Frérot, arrived at the helm of Veolia end of 2009, could be decided during the next meeting of the Board of Directors on February 29. Following this meeting promises to be choppy, several administrators of the group would seek a dismissal of the CEO. Conducted by a sling Proglio which intends to show that he still holds the strings of the group he led for many Annes before moving to EDF. According to Liberation, Proglio have discussed the replacement of Mr. Frérot by Borloo with Nicolas Sarkozy on February 12 when the two men met to discuss the rescue by EDF of Photowatt. The daily added that "history seems to have really played Tuesday, Feb. 14, on the plane. Proglio and Sarkozy publicly come to seal the resumption of Photowatt. The company is saved and Isère Proglio intends to turn the matter Veolia on the carpet. "

"I am driven by two major groups"

However, the facts disputed by the Minister for Ecology Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet. "I was on the plane, there were no apartments and there is no discussion on this topic. So that's false, "she said. But surrounding the ouster of Mr. Frérot to head the group, the spokesman of the candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, however, said she could not "confirm or deny" the information.

For its part, Borloo does not dispute some meetings with "people of Veolia," said Liberation. The daily notes that "at least five members of the board, fully identified, reportedly met Borloo, Thursday and Friday." The applicant further states that the daily Veolia is "a company that I know well as a former minister. They have problems and if I believe what is said, there are a number of shareholders who believe the group needs a class to his head. " The question is whether Borloo could be this character. For now, the former minister is cautious and says that "the only thing I can say is that now I am driven by two major international groups that are not Veolia. And contacts with them are very advanced. "

Other names circulating

But other names than that of former Minister of Ecology would be approached to head the former Generale des Eaux: Augustin de Romanet, CEO of the Caisse des Depots, "but denies the entourage contact, "according to Les Echos, Jacques Veyrat, the former head of Louis Dreyfus and Daniel Bouton, former CEO of Societe Generale.

The poor performance of the group explain, in part, the disallowance of certain directors of the group. Last year, Veolia has indeed passed successively two profit warnings and should show a loss of 200 million for fiscal 2011, according Challenges. The plunge on the stock exchange, which has lost nearly 60% of its value in one year, also feeds the sling administrators. This morning, the title company specializing in water, waste treatment and transport loses more than 4% to about 9 euros, the biggest drop in the CAC 40. The flagship index of the Paris ahead of his 0.6% to 3455 points.

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For a time, Athens can blow. After a meeting in Brussels, the seventeen ministers of finance in the euro area have given their approval for the payment of the sixth tranche of aid to Greece. At a cost of 8 billion euros, it should help support the country, public debt has recently passed the threshold of 160% of GDP. Initially, Greece will receive 5.8 billion from the euro area, yet the remainder dependent on the approval of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Eagerly awaited the release of the envelope is part of the plan of 110 billion euros agreed in May 2010.This decision allows especially on track to the second rescue plan prepared in late October, to be finalized between the Greek Government and private creditors in early 2012 best payday advance.

A sign of confidence

For the new Greek government, this decision is also similar to a pledge of confidence in the euro area for the implementation of austerity measures which the aid was conditional. Athens has also worked hard ahead of the meeting date. In a statement released this afternoon, Evangelos Venizelos, Greek Minister of Finance, has assured that "all the necessary conditions" for the new aid program had been met.

It must be said that the release of the tranche was delayed several times.